Stats -- Cairo Embassy

[LizzieBee 25]

Some might say I'm crazy. Some might say I'm OCD. But I'm really just going crazy trying to distract myself because my sweetheart's interview is in under 24 hours! Augh!

SO ... I check the VJ timelines all the time to see if I can get a handle on how quickly things happen at the Cairo Embassy. I'm always frustrated by the very small sample size. But then today I realized I have ALL OF THE MONTH'S interview results at my fingertips through the CEAC website. The Cairo embassy lists all the case numbers for the interviews for the month. There is nothing "stalkerish" about going through those case numbers because there is ZERO personal information attached to them, so I copied and pasted into a spreadsheet and sorted by date.

I plugged in every single CRO YEAR DAY XXX case number for May so far. (Case numbers are, for example, CRO2014865001 meaning: CRO = Cairo, 2014 = the year, 865 = subtract 500 to get the day of the year so this would be December 31st (which obviously hasn't happened yet in 2014...), and then the last three digits are the number that was created for that embassy on that date.) I disregarded the other format case numbers because I want to compare simple apples to apples. I wish they still listed the visa type on there, but, alas, they stopped doing that last month.

It took me a couple hours to go through the 220 case numbers that have had interviews this month so far and met the requirements above. The results were really very surprising and I wanted to share them here for the sake of others like me that just love information and statistics and a brainy approach to a process that seems so arbitrary! Here are some highlights of what I found. Tell me if you want more details and I'll figure it out or put my results on a Google Drive Spreadsheet for others to look at.

(1) Apparently, NOBODY was denied. The only statuses I saw were "Ready," "Administrative Processing," and "Issued." I did a little research and "ready" seems to be a GOOD sign after the interview. It appears to be cases that are done with processing and are waiting to have the actual visa printed. Feel free to correct me if anybody has more info.

(2) Some days, about 15-20% go into AP. Other days, it's closer to 50%. Different employees? Or just the way the dice was rolled that day as far as paperwork needed, etc? Who knows. But remember I'm looking only at the CURRENT STATUS--some of those cases were undoubtedly AP at first and now say issued. So I'd have to follow the cases every day and check them again to really know.

(3) They print the visas FAST if they aren't in AP. Like FAST fast. For example, I saw 12 cases today. Of those 12, 5 are currently in AP, 2 are "ready," and 5 have already been issued the same day! Of yesterday's 13 interview, 2 are in AP, 1 is "ready," and 10 are already issued.

In comparison, the most recent seven cases listed here on VJ had wait times of 4 days, 5 days, about two months, about 5 weeks, about 3 weeks... something like that. It's definitely possible that the statistics here are skewed because people who have PROBLEMS with their visas are more prone to coming to the website to seek advice. People with smooth sailing just keep on sailing past.

(4) If you go back to the first interview date of the month, there were 11 cases. 10 have been issued now (3 wk + 2 days later) and only one is still in AP. The one in AP has a case creation date of 2010, so likely that's a case that's been plagued with problems for a long time for one reason or another. So we'll consider that a statistical outlier. However, if we look at one day later, there are again 11 cases but four are still in AP.

Anyway, there is a little more data that can be analyzed there but it's 11:30 pm and I already feel like a freak for digging this deep. However, if anybody wants more info, just let me know. If you love numbers like me, please reply and tell me I'm not a total freak.

[Ihavequestions 419]

(2) Some days, about 15-20% go into AP. Other days, it's closer to 50%. Different employees? Or just the way the dice was rolled that day as far as paperwork needed, etc? Who knows. But remember I'm looking only at the CURRENT STATUS--some of those cases were undoubtedly AP at first and now say issued. So I'd have to follow the cases every day and check them again to really know.

No. Every intending immigrant goes through AP. The difference is that people from countries that digitize records usually have a shorter wait time and background checks are completed by the time they interview.

Egypt, and most of MENA for that matter, is different. If a name matches a name in a database - and that could be for something as simple as being a witness to a crime - the file has to be pulled and examined to determine if that person is a security threat.

It has nothing to do with employees at the Embassy and everything to do with common names.

Interesting analysis, BTW.

The Embassy is up and running today, and has been without closure for some time, even with the elections going on. Let us know how his interview goes.

[Heather&Ramy 22]

Wow.... I hate numbers and I could NEVER have done what you just did. But thank you! Very interesting information. I would have killed for stuff like that when I was still waiting for the interview. Slightly creepy, yes, but brilliant!

Ramy started plugging random numbers close to ours into the CEAC and checking their statuses when he was waiting for his interview. I thought he was crazy, but it looks like he was on to something!

Too bad there isn't a way to access historical records to look at trends and break it down in different ways. The embassies would never have the time or budget to do stuff like that, but if only they would release more records, there would be plenty of VJers ready to do it in their free time while they are waiting!

[LizzieBee 25]

Wow.... I hate numbers and I could NEVER have done what you just did. But thank you! Very interesting information. I would have killed for stuff like that when I was still waiting for the interview. Slightly creepy, yes, but brilliant!

Ramy started plugging random numbers close to ours into the CEAC and checking their statuses when he was waiting for his interview. I thought he was crazy, but it looks like he was on to something!

Too bad there isn't a way to access historical records to look at trends and break it down in different ways. The embassies would never have the time or budget to do stuff like that, but if only they would release more records, there would be plenty of VJers ready to do it in their free time while they are waitS

So true! I hope that somebody like me stumbles on this information later and finds it comforting.

[Karam and Jamie 44]

Some might say I'm crazy. Some might say I'm OCD. But I'm really just going crazy trying to distract myself because my sweetheart's interview is in under 24 hours! Augh!

SO ... I check the VJ timelines all the time to see if I can get a handle on how quickly things happen at the Cairo Embassy. I'm always frustrated by the very small sample size. But then today I realized I have ALL OF THE MONTH'S interview results at my fingertips through the CEAC website. The Cairo embassy lists all the case numbers for the interviews for the month. There is nothing "stalkerish" about going through those case numbers because there is ZERO personal information attached to them, so I copied and pasted into a spreadsheet and sorted by date.

I plugged in every single CRO YEAR DAY XXX case number for May so far. (Case numbers are, for example, CRO2014865001 meaning: CRO = Cairo, 2014 = the year, 865 = subtract 500 to get the day of the year so this would be December 31st (which obviously hasn't happened yet in 2014...), and then the last three digits are the number that was created for that embassy on that date.) I disregarded the other format case numbers because I want to compare simple apples to apples. I wish they still listed the visa type on there, but, alas, they stopped doing that last month.

It took me a couple hours to go through the 220 case numbers that have had interviews this month so far and met the requirements above. The results were really very surprising and I wanted to share them here for the sake of others like me that just love information and statistics and a brainy approach to a process that seems so arbitrary! Here are some highlights of what I found. Tell me if you want more details and I'll figure it out or put my results on a Google Drive Spreadsheet for others to look at.

(1) Apparently, NOBODY was denied. The only statuses I saw were "Ready," "Administrative Processing," and "Issued." I did a little research and "ready" seems to be a GOOD sign after the interview. It appears to be cases that are done with processing and are waiting to have the actual visa printed. Feel free to correct me if anybody has more info.

(2) Some days, about 15-20% go into AP. Other days, it's closer to 50%. Different employees? Or just the way the dice was rolled that day as far as paperwork needed, etc? Who knows. But remember I'm looking only at the CURRENT STATUS--some of those cases were undoubtedly AP at first and now say issued. So I'd have to follow the cases every day and check them again to really know.

(3) They print the visas FAST if they aren't in AP. Like FAST fast. For example, I saw 12 cases today. Of those 12, 5 are currently in AP, 2 are "ready," and 5 have already been issued the same day! Of yesterday's 13 interview, 2 are in AP, 1 is "ready," and 10 are already issued.

In comparison, the most recent seven cases listed here on VJ had wait times of 4 days, 5 days, about two months, about 5 weeks, about 3 weeks... something like that. It's definitely possible that the statistics here are skewed because people who have PROBLEMS with their visas are more prone to coming to the website to seek advice. People with smooth sailing just keep on sailing past.

(4) If you go back to the first interview date of the month, there were 11 cases. 10 have been issued now (3 wk + 2 days later) and only one is still in AP. The one in AP has a case creation date of 2010, so likely that's a case that's been plagued with problems for a long time for one reason or another. So we'll consider that a statistical outlier. However, if we look at one day later, there are again 11 cases but four are still in AP.

Anyway, there is a little more data that can be analyzed there but it's 11:30 pm and I already feel like a freak for digging this deep. However, if anybody wants more info, just let me know. If you love numbers like me, please reply and tell me I'm not a total freak.

Oh my gosh! I'm sitting on the edge of my SEAT at work reading this lolol We sent our packet 3 in recently and I received a confirmation email from the Embassy that they received it but they stated they have not scheduled the interview yet. Waitinggggggggggg UGH Waiting for June to come so they can refresh that interview page to see if his interview happens to be on there. Also waiting for an email or a letter or a phone call for the interview date. This is killing us

[Karam and Jamie 44]

Some might say I'm crazy. Some might say I'm OCD. But I'm really just going crazy trying to distract myself because my sweetheart's interview is in under 24 hours! Augh!

SO ... I check the VJ timelines all the time to see if I can get a handle on how quickly things happen at the Cairo Embassy. I'm always frustrated by the very small sample size. But then today I realized I have ALL OF THE MONTH'S interview results at my fingertips through the CEAC website. The Cairo embassy lists all the case numbers for the interviews for the month. There is nothing "stalkerish" about going through those case numbers because there is ZERO personal information attached to them, so I copied and pasted into a spreadsheet and sorted by date.

I plugged in every single CRO YEAR DAY XXX case number for May so far. (Case numbers are, for example, CRO2014865001 meaning: CRO = Cairo, 2014 = the year, 865 = subtract 500 to get the day of the year so this would be December 31st (which obviously hasn't happened yet in 2014...), and then the last three digits are the number that was created for that embassy on that date.) I disregarded the other format case numbers because I want to compare simple apples to apples. I wish they still listed the visa type on there, but, alas, they stopped doing that last month.

It took me a couple hours to go through the 220 case numbers that have had interviews this month so far and met the requirements above. The results were really very surprising and I wanted to share them here for the sake of others like me that just love information and statistics and a brainy approach to a process that seems so arbitrary! Here are some highlights of what I found. Tell me if you want more details and I'll figure it out or put my results on a Google Drive Spreadsheet for others to look at.

(1) Apparently, NOBODY was denied. The only statuses I saw were "Ready," "Administrative Processing," and "Issued." I did a little research and "ready" seems to be a GOOD sign after the interview. It appears to be cases that are done with processing and are waiting to have the actual visa printed. Feel free to correct me if anybody has more info.

(2) Some days, about 15-20% go into AP. Other days, it's closer to 50%. Different employees? Or just the way the dice was rolled that day as far as paperwork needed, etc? Who knows. But remember I'm looking only at the CURRENT STATUS--some of those cases were undoubtedly AP at first and now say issued. So I'd have to follow the cases every day and check them again to really know.

(3) They print the visas FAST if they aren't in AP. Like FAST fast. For example, I saw 12 cases today. Of those 12, 5 are currently in AP, 2 are "ready," and 5 have already been issued the same day! Of yesterday's 13 interview, 2 are in AP, 1 is "ready," and 10 are already issued.

In comparison, the most recent seven cases listed here on VJ had wait times of 4 days, 5 days, about two months, about 5 weeks, about 3 weeks... something like that. It's definitely possible that the statistics here are skewed because people who have PROBLEMS with their visas are more prone to coming to the website to seek advice. People with smooth sailing just keep on sailing past.

(4) If you go back to the first interview date of the month, there were 11 cases. 10 have been issued now (3 wk + 2 days later) and only one is still in AP. The one in AP has a case creation date of 2010, so likely that's a case that's been plagued with problems for a long time for one reason or another. So we'll consider that a statistical outlier. However, if we look at one day later, there are again 11 cases but four are still in AP.

Anyway, there is a little more data that can be analyzed there but it's 11:30 pm and I already feel like a freak for digging this deep. However, if anybody wants more info, just let me know. If you love numbers like me, please reply and tell me I'm not a total freak.

Oh my gosh! I'm sitting on the edge of my SEAT at work reading this lolol We sent our packet 3 in recently and I received a confirmation email from the Embassy that they received it but they stated they have not scheduled the interview yet. Waitinggggggggggg UGH Waiting for June to come so they can refresh that interview page to see if his interview happens to be on there. Also waiting for an email or a letter or a phone call for the interview date. This is killing us

[Ellchelle 1]

Thanks for sharing! My fiancé's interview was April 7, and though the consulate officer said to him there would be "no problem issuing the visa" we have been in AP since. Actually, we were in AP for about four weeks, and then the embassy emailed (a reply to my congressman's inquiry. They don't answer my emails), and said AP was finished, and we are now in "final review", whatever the hell that is. We've been stuck in final review for about a month. It's absolutely maddening. When he was approved at the interview, we hoped that this AP process would be quick. Then when we learned the AP was done, we hoped the final review would be quick, but nothing there is quick apparently. Started this process one year ago this month...and still no end in sight.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Ellchelle

[LizzieBee 25]

I'm so sorry, elchelle. That is horrible. You must be so frustrated to hear stories like mine where the visa status was changed to "issued" within a few hours of the interview and in his hand after four days. I wish it was like that for everybody. I have no idea why we had such good luck. I think part of it is maybe that my fiance has a very simple, clean past: no past travel, no history of any sort really other than living with his family, going to college, and having jobs. So maybe when they ran background checks and everything, it was all very straightforward? I don't know! Really best of luck to you. It makes me sick for you to imagine how hard that must be.

[Ellchelle 1]

I'm so sorry, elchelle. That is horrible. You must be so frustrated to hear stories like mine where the visa status was changed to "issued" within a few hours of the interview and in his hand after four days. I wish it was like that for everybody. I have no idea why we had such good luck. I think part of it is maybe that my fiance has a very simple, clean past: no past travel, no history of any sort really other than living with his family, going to college, and having jobs. So maybe when they ran background checks and everything, it was all very straightforward? I don't know! Really best of luck to you. It makes me sick for you to imagine how hard that must be.

.

Thank you. It is maddening! But I'm super happy for you!!!

[Karam and Jamie 44]

Some might say I'm crazy. Some might say I'm OCD. But I'm really just going crazy trying to distract myself because my sweetheart's interview is in under 24 hours! Augh!

SO ... I check the VJ timelines all the time to see if I can get a handle on how quickly things happen at the Cairo Embassy. I'm always frustrated by the very small sample size. But then today I realized I have ALL OF THE MONTH'S interview results at my fingertips through the CEAC website. The Cairo embassy lists all the case numbers for the interviews for the month. There is nothing "stalkerish" about going through those case numbers because there is ZERO personal information attached to them, so I copied and pasted into a spreadsheet and sorted by date.

I plugged in every single CRO YEAR DAY XXX case number for May so far. (Case numbers are, for example, CRO2014865001 meaning: CRO = Cairo, 2014 = the year, 865 = subtract 500 to get the day of the year so this would be December 31st (which obviously hasn't happened yet in 2014...), and then the last three digits are the number that was created for that embassy on that date.) I disregarded the other format case numbers because I want to compare simple apples to apples. I wish they still listed the visa type on there, but, alas, they stopped doing that last month.

It took me a couple hours to go through the 220 case numbers that have had interviews this month so far and met the requirements above. The results were really very surprising and I wanted to share them here for the sake of others like me that just love information and statistics and a brainy approach to a process that seems so arbitrary! Here are some highlights of what I found. Tell me if you want more details and I'll figure it out or put my results on a Google Drive Spreadsheet for others to look at.

(1) Apparently, NOBODY was denied. The only statuses I saw were "Ready," "Administrative Processing," and "Issued." I did a little research and "ready" seems to be a GOOD sign after the interview. It appears to be cases that are done with processing and are waiting to have the actual visa printed. Feel free to correct me if anybody has more info.

(2) Some days, about 15-20% go into AP. Other days, it's closer to 50%. Different employees? Or just the way the dice was rolled that day as far as paperwork needed, etc? Who knows. But remember I'm looking only at the CURRENT STATUS--some of those cases were undoubtedly AP at first and now say issued. So I'd have to follow the cases every day and check them again to really know.

(3) They print the visas FAST if they aren't in AP. Like FAST fast. For example, I saw 12 cases today. Of those 12, 5 are currently in AP, 2 are "ready," and 5 have already been issued the same day! Of yesterday's 13 interview, 2 are in AP, 1 is "ready," and 10 are already issued.

In comparison, the most recent seven cases listed here on VJ had wait times of 4 days, 5 days, about two months, about 5 weeks, about 3 weeks... something like that. It's definitely possible that the statistics here are skewed because people who have PROBLEMS with their visas are more prone to coming to the website to seek advice. People with smooth sailing just keep on sailing past.

(4) If you go back to the first interview date of the month, there were 11 cases. 10 have been issued now (3 wk + 2 days later) and only one is still in AP. The one in AP has a case creation date of 2010, so likely that's a case that's been plagued with problems for a long time for one reason or another. So we'll consider that a statistical outlier. However, if we look at one day later, there are again 11 cases but four are still in AP.

Anyway, there is a little more data that can be analyzed there but it's 11:30 pm and I already feel like a freak for digging this deep. However, if anybody wants more info, just let me know. If you love numbers like me, please reply and tell me I'm not a total freak.

(Case numbers are, for example, CRO2014865001 meaning: CRO = Cairo, 2014 = the year, 865 = subtract 500 to get the day of the year so this would be December 31st. What is the significance of December 31st in this? You subtracted 500 from 865?

[LizzieBee 25]

Yeah, 865 - 500 = 365. So NVC created our file on the 365th day of 2014, which is the last day of the year, December 31st.

[Karam and Jamie 44]

Yeah, 865 - 500 = 365. So NVC created our file on the 365th day of 2014, which is the last day of the year, December 31st.

Ok