August visa bulletin 2014 in cluding september the final !

[istog 0]

So I think I'm screwed with a high 2015AS16xxx. Asia might go current in Sept or they might have what Vladek predicted. Either way I'm done...

you are a next year winner so 2015 got less winners , you are going to be fine for August or september 2015 you just got to wait.

[DVer 0]

you are a next year winner so 2015 got less winners , you are going to be fine for August or september 2015 you just got to wait.

I now have serious doubts... Let's see what the experts (Vladek, Britsimon, Susie) will have to say after the new bulletin.

[DVer 0]

Bump

Any opinion on this?

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

Bump

Any opinion on this?

DV2014 had 140k selectees, DV2015 had 125k so definitely a better chance.

I don't enough about AS numbers to try predict.

[DVer 0]

DV2014 had 140k selectees, DV2015 had 125k so definitely a better chance.

I don't enough about AS numbers to try predict.

Thanks Susie.

What about previous years, 2013 and down? Do you have the total number of selectees? I was checking when AS went current and it was always Aug and Sept except for 2014.

Does anyone know how many DV interviews Montreal Consulate can handle per month ?

[DVer 0]

OK, I'm gonna answer myself

I did a little research. The number of selectees for 2015 and the previous years was:

DV2015: 125,514

DV2014: 140,600

DV2013: 105,628

DV2012: 100,021

DV2011: 100,600

Between 2011-2013 AS went current in Aug and Sept. In 2015 we have 20K more than 2013 and 15K less than 2014. We also have an easy way to apply online with DS-260. All this is a Game Changing...

Edited June 11, 2014 by DVer

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

OK, I'm gonna answer myself

I did a little research. The number of selectees for 2015 and the previous years was:

DV2015: 125,514

DV2014: 140,600

DV2013: 105,628

DV2012: 100,021

DV2011: 100,600

Between 2011-2013 AS went current in Aug and Sept. In 2015 we have 20K more than 2013 and 15K less than 2014. We also have an easy way to apply online with DS-260. All this is a Game Changing...

A couple of those years had second draws that were not in the initial data. Don't ask me details of which year right now...will have to dig. I had a figure of 120k for DV2013 in my head. Not sure right now if that is from a second draw or a faulty memory.

I think all that a higher DS response rate will really mean is a higher no-show rate at interviews. As you say costs nothing to send back so people don't really look into it first. Then they start adding up the costs involved and abandon the application... Will take KCC a few months to figure out any change in the no-show or rejection patterns. Could see sudden speeding up of numbers even greater than usual later in DV2015 as a result.

[DVer 0]

A couple of those years had second draws that were not in the initial data. Don't ask me details of which year right now...will have to dig. I had a figure of 120k for DV2013 in my head. Not sure right now if that is from a second draw or a faulty memory.

I think all that a higher DS response rate will really mean is a higher no-show rate at interviews. As you say costs nothing to send back so people don't really look into it first. Then they start adding up the costs involved and abandon the application... Will take KCC a few months to figure out any change in the no-show or rejection patterns. Could see sudden speeding up of numbers even greater than usual later in DV2015 as a result.

DV2012 has the second draw.

Higher no-show at the interview in Aug and Sept will have a very negative effect on those with high number. Will we see last minute interview notifications to fill in for the no-show slots? Did this ever happen?

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

DV2012 has the second draw.

Higher no-show at the interview in Aug and Sept will have a very negative effect on those with high number. Will we see last minute interview notifications to fill in for the no-show slots? Did this ever happen?

No, DV2012 had a redraw. At least two other years had more selectees drawn in October - that was what I meant by second draw.

There's no logical reason for no-shows in some months to be significantly higher than others. By last quarter they will know the trends for that.

[iu.balan 0]

im DV 2015 EU 42200 i hope i have chance for interview

My number is EU 44041 and based on the ongoing DV2014 and on the fact that they selected 125k this year which is les than 140k last year, I still hope to get that interview sometime July-Sept 2015. I have seen on this forum that the highest reported number was 2015EU 47***. So your situation is even better than mine. Don't loose hope

[faustika 0]

highest number in DV 2014EU i have seen 53K 1 guy from my country also in 2015EU 51K

[brsko 1]

Hi everyone.

My number is 2015EU00028XXX. I was just wondering, what are the chances of being invited for the interview and if yes, when?

Thank You

I am also confused about the bulletin numbers. Last months and September for 2014 shows 40 000 and something but October only shows 8500 for Europe? What does that mean? Thank you

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

Hi everyone.

My number is 2015EU00028XXX. I was just wondering, what are the chances of being invited for the interview and if yes, when?

Thank You

I am also confused about the bulletin numbers. Last months and September for 2014 shows 40 000 and something but October only shows 8500 for Europe? What does that mean? Thank you

DV runs on the fiscal year from Oct to Sept. I believe this is clearly explained? So Sept is the last month for DV14 and October is the first month for DV15. Again, if you read the text above the tables in the visa bulletin it tells you this. Not to be nasty but every year people get disqualified on factors they really shouldn't just because they didn't read the instructions properly...and your post is an indication you haven't read through the selection letter and the links from it properly. I'd suggest go back and read the original instructions from the entry form, then your letter, and then all the info and links on the dvselectee pages to ensure you have not missed something important.

[cute_blaiso 0]

the density of the cases is lesser on the late months, caused by special countries that are maxing.

According to my calculations 85~87k followed up with forms, the 'second-holes' do not apply to all regions perfectly like asia the response rate is excellent from the two biggest countries (iran + nepal), there might be more holes from the rest of asia side but it won't affect the cutt-offs seriously to create super jumps or to hit current!

BTW I readjusted nepal limit to 10.5k

Giving average of 380 cns in every 1000 cn cut-off range.

On other hand I believe africa will benefit the most from the drop-out,

For all the reasons we discussed before... And looking at dv15 where they selected the same amount as dv14 minus nigeria! So I predict a super jumps for this region.

EU has seen high jump in the middle of the fiscal year ! With Uzbekistan running, now that it has maxed-out and of course there will be visa left for august and september, EU will see again bigger jumps...

OC still stuck and we didn't see the Fiji effect yet, but I believe it will still happen within the last two remaining months..

SA didn't do bad with its cut-off a long the year so I strongly believe (contrary to reavsky) that SA will reach 2k cn range.

AF 104~105k

AS. 14~ 15. k

EU. 44~ 45. k

OC. 2000

SA. 2000

Ps: I can be totally wrong so no hard feeling .

hello sir/madam, i just want to ask this question. Please, i was selected as one of the winners of the DV lottery 2014, after sending my forms, i waited for interview letter, only to call KCC and i was told that i sent my form too late and it was received on July 29 2014. So after begging and pleading for them to help me, all they could tell me is that i should Reapply for the next DV. So sir my question is do i have any advantage of being added amongst the selectees for this new DV coming year... My case number 2014AF00080174

thankS

[cute_blaiso 0]

DV2012 has the second draw.

Higher no-show at the interview in Aug and Sept will have a very negative effect on those with high number. Will we see last minute interview notifications to fill in for the no-show slots? Did this ever happen?

hello SUSIE

, i just want to ask this question. Please, i was selected as one of the winners of the DV lottery 2014, after sending my forms, i waited for interview letter, only to call KCC and i was told that i sent my form too late and it was received on July 29 2014. So after begging and pleading for them to help me, all they could tell me is that i should Reapply for the next DV. So sir my question is do i have any advantage of being added amongst the selectees for this new DV coming year... My case number 2014AF00080174

thankS