DV2014 - calculations for EU

[MalcomX 1]

very nice, but let me show you something:

From the 2013 CEAC at statistical analysis sheet, we can see that the total number of 16619 (official ) - including the AOS.

DV2013 total number of EU selectees = 330088 (official ), so the ratio will be 16619/33088= 50.22%

DV2014 total number of EU selectees = 46589 (official )

with the same ratio we will have 46589*50.22% = 23397 visa

if you remove 3% of AOS from 23397 , you will have 22695, this number is very close to yours,so your method seems to be fine but very long.

the main question is what's the highest CN for Europe? 40k, 45k or 50k ? current?

I would like to know your comments on the following calculation for EU in DV2014:

1. Based on CEAC data we have so far we can count the real CNs in following CNs ranges:

CN range / real CNs inside this range

0-5k / 1614

5k-10k / 1667

10k-15k / 1626

15k-20k / 1356

20k-25k / 965

25k-30k / 945

The number of real CNs per range is decreasing if we go to high CNs.

2. Since we know that the further we go in CNs the more holes we have (less real CNs per range), we can say that from now on, there will be no more than 945 CNs per 5k CN range. This is the pesymistic approach. I will write:

30k-35k / 945

35k-40k / 945

40k-45k / 945

45k-50k / 945

50k-55k / 945

55k-57k / 378 (calculated proportionaly)

We will be correcting values above when we will have more CEAC data. I belive those numbers will be lower, because we will have more holes in high CNs. How many? We do not know now.

3. Adding all this real CNs we would end up with the value of 13276 real CNs for the whole 0-57000 CN range. 13276 real CNs for the whole range of 0-57000 CNs means that there is a 23,29% ratio of real CNs to all CNs. (I am surprised it is so low).

4. I've done a quick calculation that shows that we have a 76% sucess rate on interviews. That means 76% of the real CNs will get a visa. So we will have 13276 x 76% = 10089 visas issued to real CNs (not including familly members)

5. Those lucky ones have derivatives. The familly rate is about 2,2 for EU so there should be 22196 visas issued (10089 x 2,2 = 22196)

There won't be so many visas for EU, but we should remember that this value will ger lower if we will have more holes in high CNs.

Can anybody confirm those calculations are ok? Any comments?

How did those values look in past years? Ratio of real CNs to all CNs? Succes rate?