DV2014 - calculations for EU

[szym 2]

I would like to know your comments on the following calculation for EU in DV2014:

1. Based on CEAC data we have so far we can count the real CNs in following CNs ranges:

CN range / real CNs inside this range

0-5k / 1614

5k-10k / 1667

10k-15k / 1626

15k-20k / 1356

20k-25k / 965

25k-30k / 945

The number of real CNs per range is decreasing if we go to high CNs.

2. Since we know that the further we go in CNs the more holes we have (less real CNs per range), we can say that from now on, there will be no more than 945 CNs per 5k CN range. This is the pesymistic approach. I will write:

30k-35k / 945

35k-40k / 945

40k-45k / 945

45k-50k / 945

50k-55k / 945

55k-57k / 378 (calculated proportionaly)

We will be correcting values above when we will have more CEAC data. I belive those numbers will be lower, because we will have more holes in high CNs. How many? We do not know now.

3. Adding all this real CNs we would end up with the value of 13276 real CNs for the whole 0-57000 CN range. 13276 real CNs for the whole range of 0-57000 CNs means that there is a 23,29% ratio of real CNs to all CNs. (I am surprised it is so low).

4. I've done a quick calculation that shows that we have a 76% sucess rate on interviews. That means 76% of the real CNs will get a visa. So we will have 13276 x 76% = 10089 visas issued to real CNs (not including familly members)

5. Those lucky ones have derivatives. The familly rate is about 2,2 for EU so there should be 22196 visas issued (10089 x 2,2 = 22196)

There won't be so many visas for EU, but we should remember that this value will ger lower if we will have more holes in high CNs.

Can anybody confirm those calculations are ok? Any comments?

How did those values look in past years? Ratio of real CNs to all CNs? Succes rate?

[R-evolution 0]

This seems very promising analysis but can you please write, aconrding to your predictions what wouldd be the maximum number that can reach EU CN?

I'm little bit lower than EU45k, so what your opinion?

Thanks in advance!

Edited May 10, 2014 by R-evolution

[szym 2]

I do not know how many holes will be in higher CNs than 32950 so I can not calculate it.

But personally I think CN around 2014EU45000 will have an interview in September (maybe even late August). I would give 95% of a chance for this to happen, so if I were you I would start worring about the paperwork. High CNs will have very little time until deadline (30th Sept). Make sure you are 100% prepared for your interview, so you will not end up in AP.

[adinutzyc21 2]

Why are you assuming there are holes in higher CNs? Aren't the CNs assigned consecutively? So isn't it random, depending on how many people submitted the forms to continue with their application? Or did I get this wrong? (I won DV-2015 so I haven't been at it for a long time)

[Eucn 2]

Hi I don't think these calculations will hold. Eu has 46000 winners and if there are only 13000 real case numbers the average family seems pretty big. Assuming that the average family consist of 2,5 people you would need close to 18000 real cn. Your calculation would indicate 3,5 family members per cn. This woulld not fit with general demographic data for the region.

[Britsimon 18]

The reason that there is a decrease in density In high CNs (more holes) is the limited countries.

Some countries have so many entries in the lottery that they are limited during the last phase of the numbering/selection process. Using Nigeria as an example, they would have had around 35/40k winners if not artificially limited. They had 1.3 million entries (2 million with family) in 2013. That is 2 million out of 12 million entries in the world! So during the selection they would have got around 26k case numbers AF CNs go up to 116k in 2014. At some point, the first 4k of those cases are marked as winners, the next 22k are knocked out - leaving holes in the upper ranges. Other countries are limited in the same way. In EU only a couple of countries are limited like that, so once their selectees are exhausted, the holes rates will stay the same from that point to the end.

The other type of holes are disqualified entries and those and be assumed to be constant all over the range.

Edited May 11, 2014 by Britsimon

[NigeriaorBust 4,087]

Poor Nigeria won themselves right out of the ability to play the lottery

[Britsimon 18]

Hi I don't think these calculations will hold. Eu has 46000 winners and if there are only 13000 real case numbers the average family seems pretty big. Assuming that the average family consist of 2,5 people you would need close to 18000 real cn. Your calculation would indicate 3,5 family members per cn. This woulld not fit with general demographic data for the region.

He is taking the real cases based on responses. Many do not respond, so what is left has already filtered out some of the 46k. However 13k, which seems too low to me, would mean 26 - 29k with family and that still ends up with too many who want a visa for the likely quote (after denials are taken into account).

[Britsimon 18]

Poor Nigeria won themselves right out of the ability to play the lottery

Nigeria being in eligible as nothing to do with how many winners they have. It is because they have high rate of immigration through existing routes (family based and employment based).

[NigeriaorBust 4,087]

Nigeria being in eligible as nothing to do with how many winners they have. It is because they have high rate of immigration through existing routes (family based and employment based).

And where do you think the first person in the chain came from ? Most NIgeriian families that immigrate started from a DV winner at the head of the line.

[Britsimon 18]

And where do you think the first person in the chain came from ? Most NIgeriian families that immigrate started from a DV winner at the head of the line.

You think that came from DV? Hahaha! The statistics are available, please go read them, and perhaps you will understand better.

[NigeriaorBust 4,087]

You think that came from DV? Hahaha! The statistics are available, please go read them, and perhaps you will understand better.

Statistics don't show that a DV winner applied for their siblings and parents who brought a wife/hubby who applied for their parents and siblings who brought other spouses and so on. They show the family based petition.

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Poor Nigeria won themselves right out of the ability to play the lottery

Actually, it is impossible for it to have been the lottery. The factor that cuts out is 50000 immigrants over.., I forget, it's either the 5 or 10 years preceding, but whichever it is, the 7% cap on the lottery means it is impossible for any country to hit that number just via DV. In Nigeria's case actually they have seldom come close to the cap despite the high number of entries/selectees due to high fraud rate. I think average per year from Nigeria via the lottery has been 2000-2500, I can check the numbers if you are really interested

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Statistics don't show that a DV winner applied for their siblings and parents who brought a wife/hubby who applied for their parents and siblings who brought other spouses and so on. They show the family based petition.

I'm a bit confused by what you are trying to say here. Do you have any idea how long a sibling visa takes? 2000 Nigerians immigrating via DV this year are only going to have their 4000 or 6000 siblings arriving in what close to 20 years after they can file for them ...and then only if they sign affidavits of support, correct? And of course you can only file for siblings once you are a USC. And... The DV program started in 1995. Not quite 20 years ago. So how many siblings do you think have realistically arrived thanks to DV winners? Answer: probably NONE. Because 5 years to citizenship plus wait time for sibling visa is longer than the program has been in existence.

Edit: ok, I stand slightly corrected. Sibling visas for AF not as long as I thought. However current priority dates for sibling visas are Dec 2001. The very first batch of Nigerian DV immigrants could not have gotten citizenship before 2000. Even if every single one of them filed immediately, there would not be very many siblings arriving from those visas....certainly not nearly enough to say that Nigeria won itself out of the lottery.

Edited May 11, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[Britsimon 18]

I'm a bit confused by what you are trying to say here. Do you have any idea how long a sibling visa takes? 2000 Nigerians immigrating via DV this year are only going to have their 4000 or 6000 siblings arriving in what close to 20 years after they can file for them ...and then only if they sign affidavits of support, correct? And of course you can only file for siblings once you are a USC. And... The DV program started in 1995. Not quite 20 years ago. So how many siblings do you think have realistically arrived thanks to DV winners? Answer: probably NONE. Because 5 years to citizenship plus wait time for sibling visa is longer than the program has been in existence.

Edit: ok, I stand slightly corrected. Sibling visas for AF not as long as I thought. However current priority dates for sibling visas are Dec 2001. The very first batch of Nigerian DV immigrants could not have gotten citizenship before 2000. Even if every single one of them filed immediately, there would not be very many siblings arriving from those visas....certainly not nearly enough to say that Nigeria won itself out of the lottery.

Add to that that EU accounted for a massive percentage of the early DV winners and even at full pace 4000 winners annually doesn't provide the sort of momentum that it takes to make a country ineligible for the lottery. Again, if he had read and studied the yearbooks he would understand that, but he hasn't, so he doesn't.