my old EU prediction

[Eucn 2]

I think that most 40Ks are probably going to make it for EU. The reason I think so is that 2012 indicated that CN in the 40Ks have been common. I know 2012 was not a normal year, but that was because not many were aware of the redraw and because of this, cut off were 40 K in May and I think this is the first time we have seen a 40K cut off for EU. In other words with a normal range of winners one could assume that EU usually has cases in the 40Ks and that these end up going current. The question is whether the normal range is mid, low or high 40ies. Obviously more winners for DV 2014 from EU than the previous years have pushed some winners into uncharted territory.

I dont expect EU to be current in August, but that the CN is going to breach 40 K

[Britsimon 18]

Sorry for the delayed response,

the last data snapshot published by Dalius is here https://we.tl/fG7RW2nVm7

and it is up to Saturday 10 may,

I didn't work on it to make it in the usual format. may be tonight

The data as presented has got a built in problem which is causing the issued number to be understated, as we have discussed before (I think in the other forum).

Some of the embassies are not being diligent about updating the status in CEAC for all family members. So we see examples like AF39 where the principal is refused but the derivative shows as ready. That cannot be possible (i.e. the refusal for the principal stands for all family members). The same can be seen for other statuses such as AP and most critically, issued. So - whilst the data and the graphs show 26111 visas issued, the number is probably around 1000 more than that. (AF840 is an example). Consequently the ready cases as expressed in the Dalius data extract are too high, and refusals, AP and Issued are too low.

There may be some legitimate cases where the main applicant can be issued and then a derivative could be denied, but those cases are rare. A safer assumption (whilst not 100% accurate either) is to drive the derivatives status from the main applicant.

[rafikbo76 2]

The data as presented has got a built in problem which is causing the issued number to be understated, as we have discussed before (I think in the other forum).

Some of the embassies are not being diligent about updating the status in CEAC for all family members. So we see examples like AF39 where the principal is refused but the derivative shows as ready. That cannot be possible (i.e. the refusal for the principal stands for all family members). The same can be seen for other statuses such as AP and most critically, issued. So - whilst the data and the graphs show 26111 visas issued, the number is probably around 1000 more than that. (AF840 is an example). Consequently the ready cases as expressed in the Dalius data extract are too high, and refusals, AP and Issued are too low.

There may be some legitimate cases where the main applicant can be issued and then a derivative could be denied, but those cases are rare. A safer assumption (whilst not 100% accurate either) is to drive the derivatives status from the main applicant.

Yes Simon,

we already discussed that (thanks for sharing it with others)

Here is the link of Dalius data up to 05-10-2014 in the usual format treated as you just described :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UGefaYuiHguy495gwIIYVOWIkoa8Rao7gXvAfV3ycTk/edit?usp=sharing

[Britsimon 18]

Yes Simon,

we already discussed that (thanks for sharing it with others)

Here is the link of Dalius data up to 05-10-2014 in the usual format treated as you just described :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UGefaYuiHguy495gwIIYVOWIkoa8Rao7gXvAfV3ycTk/edit?usp=sharing

Perfect - thanks Rafikbo!

[MalcomX 1]

thanks charika

Yes Simon,

we already discussed that (thanks for sharing it with others)

Here is the link of Dalius data up to 05-10-2014 in the usual format treated as you just described :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UGefaYuiHguy495gwIIYVOWIkoa8Rao7gXvAfV3ycTk/edit?usp=sharing

[Britsimon 18]

thanks charika

Charika

People with this name tend to be very warm and nurturing. They are extremely reliable and are often found taking care of others. They have a deep need to try and create harmony in their surroundings. Unfortunately, this can sometimes lead to getting taken advantage of. They can have difficulties saying, "No." They can be quite successful as a Personal assistant, educator, or caterer to a small business.

[MalcomX 1]

just to add something, I think that it's better to run the script the 10th of the month, as you can see all the embassies are here, but on the one that you did at the beginning of the month not all of them were there, to have a good statistic I was obliged to remove all CNs starting from 37900...

Yes Simon,

we already discussed that (thanks for sharing it with others)

Here is the link of Dalius data up to 05-10-2014 in the usual format treated as you just described :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UGefaYuiHguy495gwIIYVOWIkoa8Rao7gXvAfV3ycTk/edit?usp=sharing

[MalcomX 1]

oups .... I juste saw that we don't have Liberia (mrv) ... so it's the same

just to add something, I think that it's better to run the script the 10th of the month, as you can see all the embassies are here, but on the one that you did at the beginning of the month not all of them were there, to have a good statistic I was obliged to remove all CNs starting from 37900...

[mijoro 2]

I still got an error in other than EU calculations.

I would expect max CNs in DV-14 to be:

AF 105000

AS 16100

EU 38000 (not more than 38700)

OC 1750

SA 1650

Max passing CN, not max CN

What is max passing CN ?

[Britsimon 18]

What is max passing CN ?

He means the highest number on the VB.

[mijoro 2]

Well that sucks if it works out that way I guess.