my old EU prediction

[rafikbo76 2]

I agree with you raevsky and I am sure that we can have even more then 102k if KCC don't decide to block Africa,

lot of people think that Africa can't have 100k/105k in September, as July AF VB = 56300 they say that we can't have a monthly progression of 20k/25k

last year , the concentration of CN after finishing with the special countries was high (130CN each 1000), so a jump of 10k or 13k (June/July) means the treatment of 1690CN in one month, (13* 130= 1690)

this year, the concentration of the CN excluding the special countries is very low (60CN each 1000), so a jump of 10.7k as last month means 642 CN treated in one month which is nothing comparing with last year (10.7*60=642) , from this approach we can see that the last VB was very bad for Africa as th rest of the regions. ans this is my opinion.

if we get the same number of CNs treated same as last year, the jump will be 13k * 130/60=28100

so we need to be prepared to have 56300+28100 = 84400 (as Aug AF VB), then 105k/106k in September or even a bit higher

what do you think Reav? simon? Vlady? Rafik?

Ps. Rafik will be happy lolololololol

That's my understanding for the cut-off evolution in the end of the year. it should be very related to the density and how many inteview will be scheduled in the month.

There are some concerns, we should discuss and may be, guys, u give some answers?

1 - are we finished with special countries?

Ghana had 1584 interview maxing out too early at 30K, with 2 more cases at 35k and 37k. so could we say that ghana is out and not the embassy failor of data loading? I guess yes but what do you think?

2 - how nigeria and egypt affect the monthly allocated inteview?

Nigeria had 1711 inteview, 700 inteview less than last year, I guess if the monthly Interview quota is 1300, between 200 and 300 goes to Nigeria with special cut-off,

Egypt had already more interview than last year 1339/1186. How Egypt Situation will be? I don't know.

3 - Cameroun and kenya have constant density between 15 and 20/1000, Should this affect the max CN interviewed? what do u think guys?

Finally what about the regional quota. Any prediction of it?

[vladek15425 7]

I agree with you raevsky and I am sure that we can have even more then 102k if KCC don't decide to block Africa,

lot of people think that Africa can't have 100k/105k in September, as July AF VB = 56300 they say that we can't have a monthly progression of 20k/25k

last year , the concentration of CN after finishing with the special countries was high (130CN each 1000), so a jump of 10k or 13k (June/July) means the treatment of 1690CN in one month, (13* 130= 1690)

this year, the concentration of the CN excluding the special countries is very low (60CN each 1000), so a jump of 10.7k as last month means 642 CN treated in one month which is nothing comparing with last year (10.7*60=642) , from this approach we can see that the last VB was very bad for Africa as th rest of the regions. ans this is my opinion.

if we get the same number of CNs treated same as last year, the jump will be 13k * 130/60=28100

so we need to be prepared to have 56300+28100 = 84400 (as Aug AF VB), then 105k/106k in September or even a bit higher

what do you think Reav? simon? Vlady? Rafik?

Ps. Rafik will be happy lolololololol

Sounds loco but yes

I would say +16k in august= 72300.

Than september will end up at 105k.

Its the last curve last shot !

May the force be with US !

[MalcomX 1]

I agree with you ....

Sounds loco but yes
I would say +16k in august= 72300.
Than september will end up at 105k.

Its the last curve last shot !
May the force be with US !

[vladek15425 7]

I agree with you ....

Malcom

Can you give us an estimation for SA veronice is freacking out with CN 18xx I gave 2000 final cutoff ?! What do you think mate?

[MalcomX 1]

1- for Africa yes and since 43k

2- they still have but not more then 40k, if you calculate the Egy number between 1 and CN=20k, you will find 2600 selectees, so with same density from 1 to 40k we will have around 5200 with is high since the total number of the selected is 5700 and we know that not all of them will send the forms, and we are speaking about 40k, not 44k or 56k, concerning Nigeria we don't even need to make any calculation since the density is more..so

3- if they reach the country max limit yes (as Nepal for Asia), but I don't think that will happen.

not big difference between DV2013 & DV2014

That's my understanding for the cut-off evolution in the end of the year. it should be very related to the density and how many inteview will be scheduled in the month.

There are some concerns, we should discuss and may be, guys, u give some answers?

1 - are we finished with special countries?

Ghana had 1584 interview maxing out too early at 30K, with 2 more cases at 35k and 37k. so could we say that ghana is out and not the embassy failor of data loading? I guess yes but what do you think?

2 - how nigeria and egypt affect the monthly allocated inteview?

Nigeria had 1711 inteview, 700 inteview less than last year, I guess if the monthly Interview quota is 1300, between 200 and 300 goes to Nigeria with special cut-off,

Egypt had already more interview than last year 1339/1186. How Egypt Situation will be? I don't know.

3 - Cameroun and kenya have constant density between 15 and 20/1000, Should this affect the max CN interviewed? what do u think guys?

Finally what about the regional quota. Any prediction of it?

[vladek15425 7]

Malcom bear in mind that cuba and vezezuella's response and succes rate is very poor ! According to the previous year...

[MalcomX 1]

18xx is a good number, she will have an interview 99% in august, I think that the max will be 2600 ......

Malcom
Can you give us an estimation for SA veronice is freacking out with CN 18xx I gave 2000 final cutoff ?! What do you think mate?

[vladek15425 7]

18xx is a good number, she will have an interview 99% in august, I think that the max will be 2600 ......

Thanks pal

My 2000 final of SA was my old prediction, but I will stick to it although I'm prety sure you are more right than me

[MalcomX 1]

so !!!!

Malcom bear in mind that cuba and vezezuella's response and succes rate is very poor ! According to the previous year...

[MalcomX 1]

hhhhh ....

Thanks pal
My 2000 final of SA was my old prediction, but I will stick to it although I'm prety sure you are more right than me

[Britsimon 18]

Sorry Sloner , it's because I already know your opinion .....

the 5-0 is perfect for me (I am sure that Simon understood what I mean)

Lol yes I do

[raevsky 0]

I would withdraw this for now until I double check everything

Edited May 12, 2014 by raevsky

[vladek15425 7]

I would withdraw this for now until I double check everything

What did you withdraw ??? I didn't see ?!

[raevsky 0]

You missed it.

OK, based on the followin max numbers:

AF 116000

AS 23000

EU 54000

NA based on July number current

OC ~2999

SA ~2999

I got the following final numbers for September:

AF 83000

AS about 15000

EU 38700 max (more likely below 38000)

NA current

OV 1600

SA 1600

Also, I am expecting DV-15 EU max number between 39K and 43.5K, based on about 45500 max EU number.

When I know max DV-15 CNs for other regions (I do not know them yet), I willcome up with other DV-15 numbers.

[Gina_g 0]

raevsky, the highest CN reported for DV 2014 EU is 59XXX.