my old EU prediction

[MalcomX 1]

I just want to remind you what I have published months ago:

let's play with the number, we have 46589 selected for EU, we know that the submitted forms rate for EU was 56.4% in 2013, since we will have same rate this year so the we will have 46589*0.564= 26276 persons, the family rate for EU is 0.465, so we will have 26276*0.465= 12218 CN

removing the AOS process we will have 12218*0.97= 11852 CN scheduled for EU CP interview.

Since we have two special counties, so I'll need to calculate their respective number to be able to remove that number from the total :
(1431*6009)/6412= 1342 CN for Ukraine CP interview
(1337*5014)/5101= 1315 CN for Uzbekistan CP interview

so 11852-1342-1325= 10510 CN for non-special countries for CP interview/Zone Europe

if you check the density of the none SC last year you will have:

between 0 1000 we have: 174 CN
between 1000 2000 we have: 145 CN
between 2000 3000 we have: 150 CN
between 3000 4000 we have: 140 CN
between 4000 5000 we have: 153 CN
between 5000 6000 we have: 164 CN
between 6000 7000 we have: 140 CN
between 7000 8000 we have: 169 CN
between 8000 9000 we have: 160 CN
between 9000 10000 we have: 242 CN
between 10000 11000 we have: 226 CN
between 11000 12000 we have: 250 CN
between 12000 13000 we have: 236 CN
between 13000 14000 we have: 204 CN
between 14000 15000 we have: 239 CN
between 15000 16000 we have: 239 CN
between 16000 17000 we have: 229 CN
between 17000 18000 we have: 245 CN
between 18000 19000 we have: 215 CN
between 19000 20000 we have: 220 CN

So the average is 197 CN (DV-2013)

This year (DV-2014) we have almost same concentration, see below:
between 0 1000 we have: 190 CN
between 1000 2000 we have: 187 CN
between 2000 3000 we have: 193 CN
between 3000 4000 we have: 193 CN
between 4000 5000 we have: 201 CN
between 5000 6000 we have: 204 CN
between 6000 7000 we have: 204 CN
between 7000 8000 we have: 201 CN
between 8000 9000 we have: 176 CN
between 9000 10000 we have: 217 CN
between 10000 11000 we have: 177 CN
between 11000 12000 we have: 187 CN
between 12000 13000 we have: 204 CN
between 13000 14000 we have: 189 CN
between 14000 15000 we have: 200 CN
between 15000 16000 we have: 195 CN
between 16000 17000 we have: 204 CN
between 17000 18000 we have: 210 CN
between 18000 19000 we have: 193 CN
between 19000 20000 we have: 178 CN

the average is 195CN, I am sure that he will 197CN on the 30th of september 2014,

Since we know that the distribution will be the same as last year and we have already calculated the number of CN for non-special countries for CP interview/Zone Europe which is 10510CN, so let continue our calculation:

so (10510/197) * 1000 = 53350

so the max European CN will be 53350 (uniform distribution), of course the real CN is a bit higher because the density is not high at the end, so we will be able to use this number to calculate the EU max CN:

53350 - 3940 (calculated in the beginning of the tread for europe) = 49410 will be the max European CN

[Britsimon 18]

Man I hope you're right - but I fear you are too optimistic...

[MalcomX 1]

Man I hope you're right - but I fear you are too optimistic...

[Sloner 0]

Man I hope you're right - but I fear you are too optimistic...

You are too pessimistic.

46589*0.564= 26276 persons in DV14 all.

May 3 - 19476 persons.

From July 1 to September 30, it remains to consider. 26276-19476=6800 persons.

This 3238 visas. Before July 1, will be issued max 14500 visas.

Total: 14500+3238=17738

This is not a very exact figure, we do not know how many visas will be issued until July 1. Therefore, I will refrain from passage numbers.

[Sloner 0]

MalcomX in 2013 no 3 months October-December. Density will be higher at the beginning.

[MalcomX 1]

just keep in mind that 40% of African visa's are distributed between august and September

You are too pessimistic.

46589*0.564= 26276 persons in DV14 all.

May 3 - 19476 persons.

From July 1 to September 30, it remains to consider. 26276-19476=6800 persons.

This 3238 visas. Before July 1, will be issued max 14500 visas.

Total: 14500+3238=17738

This is not a very exact figure, we do not know how many visas will be issued until July 1. Therefore, I will refrain from passage numbers.

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

just keep in mind that 40% of African visa's are distributed between august and September

That presumably includes a number who interviewed earlier and were put on AP, though?

Does anyone have data to hand of # of AP cases in Africa? (I don't think it is big enough to be a major cause of what Malcolm refers to but would be nice to be sure)

[Britsimon 18]

The AP surge in the last monts is real for AF although this year that will be bad for thse cases if we don't make it to Sept 30. KCC seem totally unaware of the impending problem, so I am sure the embassies are also unaware and will process in the same way as normal. Normal seems to be to magically clear the last remaining AP cases as late as the last couple of weeks (which probably means they give up waiting for whatever checks they were doing).

[rafikbo76 2]

That presumably includes a number who interviewed earlier and were put on AP, though?

Does anyone have data to hand of # of AP cases in Africa? (I don't think it is big enough to be a major cause of what Malcolm refers to but would be nice to be sure)

By 3 May, 1786 AP for AF

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

By 3 May, 1786 AP for AF

Thanks, I wasn't clear, I meant a total number - for example what the number of AP out of all issued African visas was last year

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

which probably means they give up waiting for whatever checks they were doing).

I believe they do rush it in some cases. Have seen a number of reports of people missing out on DV visas because they didn't get off AP by year end so they definitely don't take everyone off AP though...

Btw would also be interesting to see what % of AF AP cases were Nigerian - would impact extrapolating trends for dv2015?

[Sloner 0]

just keep in mind that 40% of African visa's are distributed between august and September

it is an error CEAC I do not see there burst.

[Sloner 0]

in July, August and September 2013, Europe and Asia was current. This year is different, I would refrain from comparisons.

[raevsky 0]

For Europe for DV-15 my estimate of max passing CN will be 40000 plus/minus 2000. I believe regular max CN for Europe is about 45000.

I am not sure what max CN is for other regions, so I cannot estimate max passing CN for them

[vladek15425 7]

For Europe for DV-15 my estimate of max passing CN will be 40000 plus/minus 2000. I believe regular max CN for Europe is about 45000.

I am not sure what max CN is for other regions, so I cannot estimate max passing CN for them

Wow I wanted so bad to hear from you when I saw Eu at 36300 lol

Welcome in here btw