Understanding July Visa Bulletin. Estimates for CN Cut-Off

[vladek15425 7]

Mijoro : oc last year 731 .

Szym :

Simon used also 2011 succes rate and applied to dv14, to demonstrate that its indeed oversuscribed with selectees... And if I'm not mistaking he ended up gaving us an estimate that was closer to yours after cutting the extra selectees ...

My self i used the succes rate of the 3 or four months of dv14 to calculate the quotas vs cns for each regions... But it was a total flop knowing that the first months the visa issuing rate was very slow!

In february the visa rate boomed up to 5k per month, so all my calcuations collapsed.

Not saying that yours are wrong but you shoud just remember that the data is missing because of lots factors ( sloner effect, aos,late comebacks....)

Globaly yours estimates seems plausible.

And about nigeria quota I think will remain in AF since quotas don't change dramaticaly from a year to an other, and giving the the amount of af selectees for dv15 (58k) leads me to think that!

Thanks for work

[mijoro 2]

So lets say that there are 350 visas already issued that still leaves a min of 381 to be issued in the last 3 bulletins. That seems do able. I mean its not like they are all done in Sydney , Suva, Nz as well as other places that can also do the interviews. Its not entirely impossible that we cant at least get to the 2k mark.

And last year was a heavily under subscribed year wasnt it?

[Britsimon 18]

Haha yeah let's blame simon lol

Because rajevsky is not here :)

Oh great - I am the grinch that stole Christmas??

So lets say that there are 350 visas already issued that still leaves a min of 381 to be issued in the last 3 bulletins. That seems do able. I mean its not like they are all done in Sydney , Suva, Nz as well as other places that can also do the interviews. Its not entirely impossible that we cant at least get to the 2k mark.

And last year was a heavily under subscribed year wasnt it?

Don't forget, the visas issued number is based on interviews up to the end of April, so there are 5 months remaining, not 3.

[szym 2]

My self i used the succes rate of the 3 or four months of dv14 to calculate the quotas vs cns for each regions... But it was a total flop knowing that the first months the visa issuing rate was very slow!

In february the visa rate boomed up to 5k per month, so all my calcuations collapsed.

Thanks for your comments.

We should take into consideration that there are cases like 2014EU9. This very low number received his visas on 2nd May 2014. Why so late? There are more numbers like this. So I think the further we go in visa issuance process the more visas will be issued in one month, becuase we have a lot of delayed casses that finally can be solved.

Example for EU in DV2014:

First month: CN 1-8000. Visas Issued (including familly members): 4304. CN per visas rate: 1,85

Second month: CN 8000-9800. Visas Issued (including familly members): 984. CN per visas rate: 1,82

Third month: CN 9800-12500. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1357. CN per visas rate: 1,99

Fourth month: CN 12500-13200. Visas Issued (including familly members): 376. CN per visas rate: 1,86

Fifth month: CN 13200-16700. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1539. CN per visas rate: 2,27

Sixth month: CN 16700-20050. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1022. CN per visas rate: 3,27

Seventh month: CN 20500-25400. Visas Issued (including familly members): 1275. CN per visas rate: 4,19

We do not have data for more months.

High CN per visas rate in late months is because there is a lot of visas in AP and etc.

If we will re-check this data later than the CN per visa rate will be lower (for last 2 months), because for example AP will be finished for some cases.

The numbers above do not mean that for example in Seventh month (April) only 1275 visas were issued. It means that 1275 visas were issued so far for CN range 20500-25400. In reality more visas were issued in April, but there were also visas for others CN range.

I am counting for final CN per visas rate for EU at about 2,3 (average from all months on September 30th 2014), but I cannot estimate it statisticaly. Too many unknown factors.