Understanding July Visa Bulletin. Estimates for CN Cut-Off

[vladek15425 7]

always good to see current from now even if it's related to NA.....

May be we will still have an other surprise !

I hope ...

[Sloner 0]

there will be no surprises. Santa Claus Simon stole it.

[mijoro 2]

So Sloner, has the last VB changed how you think the regions will end up? What are your final predictions?

[vladek15425 7]

there will be no surprises. Santa Claus Simon stole it.

Haha yeah let's blame simon lol

Because rajevsky is not here :)

[szym 2]

% of selectees devided to regions in DV2014:

EU 33,12%

AF 44,04%

As 16,54%

NB 0,02%

OC 3,00%

SA 3,28%

% of selectees devided to regions in DV2015:

EU 32,12%

AF 46,58%

As 16,06%

NB 0,01%

OC 2,01%

SA 3,21%

That is good news to AF (2,5% rise).

Bad news to EU (loosing 1%)

If we would make an assumption that % of visas issued is proportional to % of selectees, and 55k visas wille be issued than it would mean:

in DV2014 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:

EU 18217

AF: 24220

AS: 9099

NB: 9

OC: 1648

SA: 1806

in DV2015 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:

EU 17669

AF: 25620

AS: 8835

NB: 6

OC: 1104

SA: 1766

Any comments on the above values?

For example I know that AF has higher refuse rate so the assuption above is not accurate, but it is better than nothing...

Is there any correlation between selectees per region and visas available for that region?

[szym 2]

If we would make an assumption that % of visas issued is proportional to % of selectees, and 55k visas wille be issued than it would mean:

in DV2014 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:

EU 18217

AF: 24220

AS: 9099

NB: 9

OC: 1648

SA: 1806

in DV2015 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:

EU 17669

AF: 25620

AS: 8835

NB: 6

OC: 1104

SA: 1766

Any comments on the above values?

For example I know that AF has higher refuse rate so the assuption above is not accurate, but it is better than nothing...

Is there any correlation between selectees per region and visas available for that region?

In DV2015 Nigeria is ineligible. Where will those visas go to? AF or to the whole world? (proportionaly?)

If only to AF than it looks like African countries will benefit much more in DV2015. Am I right?

[mijoro 2]

Are you talking about actual visas or CN numbers ?

If its Visas issued then I am happy as I think OC has only issued around 400 visas so far.

[Veronice 1]

% of selectees devided to regions in DV2014:

EU 33,12%

AF 44,04%

As 16,54%

NB 0,02%

OC 3,00%

SA 3,28%

% of selectees devided to regions in DV2015:

EU 32,12%

AF 46,58%

As 16,06%

NB 0,01%

OC 2,01%

SA 3,21%

That is good news to AF (2,5% rise).

Bad news to EU (loosing 1%)

If we would make an assumption that % of visas issued is proportional to % of selectees, and 55k visas wille be issued than it would mean:

in DV2014 the following numbers of visas will be isssued:

EU 18217

AF: 24220

AS: 9099

NB: 9

OC: 1648

SA: 1806

Where did you get that data? Is it official? Are you 100% sure about this? SA have been using like 2% of DV issuances

Edited May 8, 2014 by Veronice

[szym 2]

Are you talking about actual visas or CN numbers ?

Yes, actual visas. That is only my prediction based on simple math.

[szym 2]

Where did you get that data? Is it official? Are you 100% sure about this? SA have been using like 2% of DV issuances

That is my estimation, calculated on data from VB.

Example for DV2014:

- Total selectees: 140659

- number of selectees from SA: 4620

so,SA has 3,28% of selectees.

If we assume that SA will get 3,28% of total visas that will be 3,28% x 55.000visas = 1804 visas.

[IheartNY 2]

Yes, actual visas. That is only my prediction based on simple math.

So you think CNs like mine and mijoro's have a chance in OC? (20xx). I just assumed we were toast.

Edited May 8, 2014 by IheartNY

[mijoro 2]

Me too, I mean its not over till its over... But its looking pretty grim.

[szym 2]

So you think CNs like mine and mijoro's have a chance in OC? (20xx). I just assumed we were toast.

My simplified assumption concerning % of visas issued can be wrong, but even taking into account 2% of visas to OC it would mean 1100 visas.

So far, till the end of April 315 visas were issued in OC (including familly members). 900 CN were used. That gives a factor of 2,85 CN per visa.

To get all 1100 visas OC needs: 1100 x 2,85CN = 3135 CN.

I might be wrong. We have to verify my assumptions

[IheartNY 2]

My simplified assumption concerning % of visas issued can be wrong, but even taking into account 2% of visas to OC it would mean 1100 visas.

So far, till the end of April 315 visas were issued in OC (including familly members). 900 CN were used. That gives a factor of 2,85 CN per visa.

To get all 1100 visas OC needs: 1100 x 2,85CN = 3135 CN.

I might be wrong. We have to verify my assumptions

I think theoretically you may be right but practically speaking I cant see how OC processes that many visas in august and september. Its not like theyve demonstrated that kind of capacity to date. Baffling really.

Edited May 8, 2014 by IheartNY

[mijoro 2]

How many visas were issued to the OC last year