Understanding July Visa Bulletin. Estimates for CN Cut-Off

[szym 2]

Franko gave us a good hope today, that we will hit current also this year, but personally I am not sure about it. I would like to do some calculations, and estimate the final Cut-Off Case Number for EU (and maybe later for all regions) in DV2014 and DV2015, but I would need help in verifying few hypothesis.

1. We have 55.000 visas available. True or not?

We can read in latest VB: "The NACARA stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program. This resulted in reduction of the DV-2014 annual limit to 50,000."

Honestly I do not understand. "Up to" means some value, not a fixed one. So how can we say that 55,000 - some value (not a fixed value) = 50.000?

Most of people I talked to like the 55k more than 50k, but we all would like as many visas as possible to be available for all of us, so I am afraid that we should make an assumption that we have 50k available (not 55k).

Personally, I think that more visas than 50k will be issued, but this will happen mostly because some inertia in the wole process of visa issuance (interviews). I think that the final value will be between 50k and 55k

2. Statistical breakdown by foreign-state chargeability vs selectees number in DV2015. Wchich is correct?

"Approximately 125,514 applicants have been registered" - ok, I get it, but...

..if we calculate the total selectees from "statistical brakdown" than we will have the following numbers:

AFRICA: 48010

ASIA: 20002

EUROPE: 40000

NORTH AMERICA: 14

OCEANIA: 3498

SOUTH AMERICA: 2667

-------------------------------

TOTAL: 114191

125,514-114191=11,323 missing?

Or is there someting I should know?

3. Do we have current data from DV2014? Where to obtain it?

I was using data from this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_m-5eUaJfWH--B_FGegRKJAfc044SBzCfvUa3grPm4k/edit?pli=1#gid=29386064

Somebody who made it must import data from some source? What source is it? Is this spreadsheet a reliable data?

[franko 2]

Franko gave us a good hope today, that we will hit current also this year, but personally I am not sure about it. I would like to do some calculations, and estimate the final Cut-Off Case Number for EU (and maybe later for all regions) in DV2014 and DV2015, but I would need help in verifying few hypothesis.

1. We have 55.000 visas available. True or not?

We can read in latest VB: "The NACARA stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program. This resulted in reduction of the DV-2014 annual limit to 50,000."

Honestly I do not understand. "Up to" means some value, not a fixed one. So how can we say that 55,000 - some value (not a fixed value) = 50.000?

Most of people I talked to like the 55k more than 50k, but we all would like as many visas as possible to be available for all of us, so I am afraid that we should make an assumption that we have 50k available (not 55k).

Personally, I think that more visas than 50k will be issued, but this will happen mostly because some inertia in the wole process of visa issuance (interviews). I think that the final value will be between 50k and 55k

2. Statistical breakdown by foreign-state chargeability vs selectees number in DV2015. Wchich is correct?

"Approximately 125,514 applicants have been registered" - ok, I get it, but...

..if we calculate the total selectees from "statistical brakdown" than we will have the following numbers:

AFRICA: 48010

ASIA: 20002

EUROPE: 40000

NORTH AMERICA: 14

OCEANIA: 3498

SOUTH AMERICA: 2667

-------------------------------

TOTAL: 114191

125,514-114191=11,323 missing?

Or is there someting I should know?

3. Do we have current data from DV2014? Where to obtain it?

I was using data from this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_m-5eUaJfWH--B_FGegRKJAfc044SBzCfvUa3grPm4k/edit?pli=1#gid=29386064

Somebody who made it must import data from some source? What source is it? Is this spreadsheet a reliable data?

I think I should have not mentioned what the lady said as this just might be her personal view. I received wrong news regarding June so this as well might be false info.

3.

Rafik is extracting the data frome the CEAC system once a month after the bulletin...more less. The CEAC data is updated by consulates periodically, they try to have it uploaded before the bulletin but last month Nepal and Iran data was delayed.

Edited May 7, 2014 by franko

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Re the number of visas. Up to means exactly that, up to 5k for nacara, but they hardly use anything. How we can confirm this: we know Iran hit the country limit in 2013. I don't have the numbers here but from what I can recall the actual issued visas for Iran were in line with 7% of 55k rather than of 50k.

Also many previous years (ignore 2012 with its issues) visas issued exceeded 50k, by more than seems reasonable for new babies/spouses, and they have still increased the draws vs those years. Tells me they are targeting 55k visas.

[szym 2]

2. Statistical breakdown by foreign-state chargeability vs selectees number in DV2015. Wchich is correct?

"Approximately 125,514 applicants have been registered" - ok, I get it, but...

..if we calculate the total selectees from "statistical brakdown" than we will have the following numbers:

AFRICA: 48010

ASIA: 20002

EUROPE: 40000

NORTH AMERICA: 14

OCEANIA: 3498

SOUTH AMERICA: 2667

-------------------------------

TOTAL: 114191

125,514-114191=11,323 missing?

Or is there someting I should know?

My calculations above are wrong. Proper ones below:

EU = 40 000

AF = 58 000

AS = 20 002

NB = 14

OC = 3 499

SA = 3 999

TOTAL: 125,514 so all is ok.

Sorry for my mistake.

[szym 2]

Rafik is extracting the data frome the CEAC system once a month after the bulletin...more less. The CEAC data is updated by consulates periodically, they try to have it uploaded before the bulletin but last month Nepal and Iran data was delayed.

How can I obtain current CEAC data from consulates? Where is the CEAC data source?

[franko 2]

How can I obtain current CEAC data from consulates? Where is the CEAC data source?

https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx?eQs=o/iS8zDpeAKjMWCuebHqOw==

If you want to check visa status you enter 2014EU16 for example and it will display the status of the visa.

[szym 2]

https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx?eQs=o/iS8zDpeAKjMWCuebHqOw==

If you want to check visa status you enter 2014EU16 for example and it will display the status of the visa.

Dzieki

I see somebody is doing a hard job typing all the numbers. Respect...

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Dzieki

I see somebody is doing a hard job typing all the numbers. Respect...

Data mining algorithm!

[franko 2]

Dzieki

I see somebody is doing a hard job typing all the numbers. Respect...

Just a script. I cannot imagine anyone even attempting the task manually

[rafikbo76 2]

Just a script. I cannot imagine anyone even attempting the task manually

Even a green card doesn't worth all that work

[szym 2]

Ok. So this data should be ok. I will do some calculations later this week or at weekend and I will let you know about my estimates for CN Cut-offs in DV2014 and DV2015.

[vladek15425 7]

Hey Guys NA is current ! Lolol I predicted that wow

Not even last year in july they did!

[Britsimon 18]

Just a script. I cannot imagine anyone even attempting the task manually

Mijoro did for OC at the beginning...

Hey Guys NA is current ! Lolol I predicted that wow

Not even last year in july they did!

LOL - yup - that will be the one region current then....

[MalcomX 1]

you are the number one

Hey Guys NA is current ! Lolol I predicted that wow
Not even last year in july they did!

[MalcomX 1]

always good to see current from now even if it's related to NA.....

Mijoro did for OC at the beginning...

LOL - yup - that will be the one region current then....