July Numbers are In

[Eucn 2]

Franko, I have checked KFC view on current both in official documents and conversation. Current means that the KCC "believes" that there are visa enough to satisfy all demand, however KFC is free to retrogress the cut-off if this belief is proven wrong by facts. So in theory it is possible to go current in August and then reintroduce a numerical cut-off in September if demand during the next few months suddenly spiked. So basically the visa bulletin is an educated guess from KFC.kfc5.jpeg

See guys retrogression is already happening,,,,but luckily not for DV...

WORLDWIDE F2A:

The cut-off date for the Family F2A category was advanced at a very rapid pace during fiscal year 2013 in an effort to generate demand to use all numbers available under the annual limit. Those movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand being received during the past seven months. This has required the retrogression of the Family F2A cut-off date for June in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.

MEXICO F2A:

Despite a previous retrogression, the level of demand has remained excessive, resulting in a further retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the annual limit.

Employment Third, and Third Other Workers:

The unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category. As a result, it has been necessary to retrogress the Worldwide, China, and Mexico cut-off dates for the month of June.

Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions.

[rustawilliams 0]

That everyone will get a Green Card and a lifetime supply of KFC chicken.

His theory sounds the best . This guy raevsky in the other forum was getting me worried.

I do wonder why Oceania only had a few visas issued in September when they went all current in DV-2013, I thought there would be a rush with all the high case numbers. Unless the highest case number back then was much lower, just above the 1600 August cut-off. ??

[Sloner 0]

That everyone will get a Green Card and a lifetime supply of KFC chicken.

I it not say

Edited May 8, 2014 by Sloner

[MalcomX 1]

happy to see someone going to Plano.... so you are my future neighbor

Agree, i feel better now and i don't need to wait for the next VB

[MalcomX 1]

for me you will have your chance but most probably not before September ....

what are you thinking about europe for the number 40xxx and 50xxx they will have an interview? whit my cn eu444xx do i have any change for a interview?

[MalcomX 1]

All regions have had a decrease. The decrease for OC is roughly on par with other regions apart from AF, which has had only a small decrease.

It is almost as if they are listening to Sloner theories and doing the exact opposite of anything he says.

[MalcomX 1]

this is what I am thinking and afraid ....... in this case it will be very easy to calculate the max CN for each region this year ....

What do think about using the high 2015 numbers as an estimate as to what is safe for 2014. Would KCC be deceasing these numbers because they see them as being a more realistic outcome for everyone going current.

[MalcomX 1]

I agree with you Simon, very objective and accurate ....you are the one (after vladdy of course lololololololol )

-best comment for today and even this week-

I think that is exactly right.

Look, a normal year had around 100k selectees. 2013 had 105k and then had an extra 5k (estimated) in a second draw. They eventually issued 51k visas from those 110k and apart from the Iran cutoff I don't think anyone missed out. Because of NACARA, we figured out that the final availability for visas could be as high as 54.5k - an increase of about 7%. So - 7% more than 110k would be pretty safe - maybe a few more.

I have been saying for a LONG time that the 110k could be increased by a factor and that the 2014 cutoff would be between 110K and 140k, and probably 115k to 120k in the range of - so I was telling people months ago to work out where (at a regional level) their number came within their region. If their number was in the top 80% in their region I made the point that they could therefore think of themselves in the top 80% in the world (i.e. the first 112k - 80% of 140k). So - someone at 80% or less was safe, someone in the 80 - 90% was in the danger zone and someone above 90% was in trouble. VERY simplistic - but look at what USCIS have done with 2015 - they have knocked the 140k down by 10% - presumably because they expect the top 10% to be in trouble.

The actual adjustments have varied by region. AF has only "lost" 6% whereas EU has "lost" 13%. THat might be a reaction to the high fraud/refusal/AP rates in AF region...

Doesn't always feel too educated.

[MalcomX 1]

see below buddy:

EU = 40 000 - 6600 14%
AF = 58 000 -4000 7%
AS = 20 002 -3300 14%
NB = 14
OC = 3 499 -700 16%
SA = 3 999 -600 13%

So the selectees by region for DV2015 are:
EU = 40 000
AF = 58 000
AS = 20 002
NB = 14
OC = 3 499
SA = 3 999
Can anyone work-out the difference with last year numberts?

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

The actual adjustments have varied by region. AF has only "lost" 6% whereas EU has "lost" 13%. THat might be a reaction to the high fraud/refusal/AP rates in AF region...

And yet the highest fraud/refusal rate country of any meaningful size in AF is no longer in DV...so the higher share plus this fact tells me the regional quota for AF has increased?

See guys retrogression is already happening,,,,but luckily not for DV...

If you look at the very early days of DV it did happen, although it seems KCC were still very much trying to find their feet back then. I very much doubt it would happen again for DV unless things were way beyond what they foresaw. Remember they have more "leeway" with the family visas as there is no date deadline.

[MalcomX 1]

We will definitely have a concentrated rage of CN for DV2015/African countries......., without Nigeria and even Ghana as special country so less holes

[Britsimon 18]

And yet the highest fraud/refusal rate country of any meaningful size in AF is no longer in DV...so the higher share plus this fact tells me the regional quota for AF has increased?

Yes I think so Susie. Not quite ure how that happens. I also think that a major event like Nigeria coming out can cause some temporary confusion in their numbers, so they might screw up AF this year...

Sloner is also saying there is a massive decrease in the AF quota so, based on him getting things wrong all the time, I think you could be right - perhaps more quota for AF.

[rafikbo76 2]

See guys retrogression is already happening,,,,but luckily not for DV...

WORLDWIDE F2A:

The cut-off date for the Family F2A category was advanced at a very rapid pace during fiscal year 2013 in an effort to generate demand to use all numbers available under the annual limit. Those movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand being received during the past seven months. This has required the retrogression of the Family F2A cut-off date for June in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.

MEXICO F2A:

Despite a previous retrogression, the level of demand has remained excessive, resulting in a further retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the annual limit.

Employment Third, and Third Other Workers:

The unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category. As a result, it has been necessary to retrogress the Worldwide, China, and Mexico cut-off dates for the month of June.

Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions.

if my understanding is good about what you mean by retrogression, It did happen before in the early years.

Have a look at the link of cut-off

http://www.dv-info.site40.net/

It was current at the beginning of the year and than introduce cut-off when Visa demand increased

[rafikbo76 2]

Yes I think so Susie. Not quite ure how that happens. I also think that a major event like Nigeria coming out can cause some temporary confusion in their numbers, so they might screw up AF this year...

Sloner is also saying there is a massive decrease in the AF quota so, based on him getting things wrong all the time, I think you could be right - perhaps more quota for AF.

Man

I start to believe that Sloner upgraded to 2.0 give us a lot of correct information.

Apparently it s like the other forum upgrade

[rafikbo76 2]

this is what I am thinking and afraid ....... in this case it will be very easy to calculate the max CN for each region this year ....

You should take into account how many special countries within a region, and the usual concentration of those countries. because they can create more holes after reaching their limit. and this will certainly affect CN