July Numbers are In

[mijoro 2]

Oceania has dropped 17%

[mijoro 2]

I wonder if the Australian component of that has dropped significantly.

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

I'm a bit unsure how to calculate selectees for an area. Do they numbers listed in the July bulletin for each region represent number of case numbers or people registered?

To put it another way, I get 3,499 for Oceania as the total for DV-2015 compared to 4,215 as the total for DV-2014. A decrease of ~17% or 716. What does that number mean?

EDIT: Didn't realise indented countries were additional numbers.

It's number of people. Hence they all add up to 125k.

When you look at the decrease for Oceania remember that the total number of selectees fell by 15k.

[rustawilliams 0]

It's number of people. Hence they all add up to 125k.

When you look at the decrease for Oceania remember that the total number of selectees fell by 15k.

So that's principal applicants with case numbers + family members?

So an Oceania decrease of 17% and overall decrease of ~10%. The Australian decrease is ~10%, NZ ~13% and Fiji ~27% so it seems they've reduced the number from Fiji most and that's brought the numbers down more than the overall decrease worldwide.

[mijoro 2]

Well thats interesting, I dont know what it means but its interesting.

[IheartNY 2]

115 for Oceania I still want to vomit.

I think we're toast Mijoro.

[AU.Dan 0]

A reason for the drop in OC is likely to do with 2014 being over subscribed. It was most likely based on 2012 statistics, as was talked about in great detail on previous posts. The highest OC 2015 is likely what KCC thinks OC will need to fill the quota. I did see some OC 2015 numbers in the low 2000's so those numbers might be safe.

This is still just a theory nobody really knows what KCC is up to.

Edited May 7, 2014 by AU.Dan

[Britsimon 18]

EU 36300 for July (KCC lady said that they are aiming to go current in last two months similar to previous years, I do not know how much knowledge or "power" she holds at KFC but it sounds promising )

Wow Franky - that is a wild statement she made. It just seems more and more ridiculous - unless current means something other than what we think it does....

[franko 2]

Wow Franky - that is a wild statement she made. It just seems more and more ridiculous - unless current means something other than what we think it does....

I'm actually planning to give'em a ring tomorrow. Need to ask a question about personal detail update and I will ask again what are my chances. Like I said before, I was under the impression that June numbers are going to be good and that was probably KFC ladies' wish cause we know how June turned out so... I would not celebrate yet. Actually I would not celebrate at all till my/your number is current.

Also will ask what is KFC view on current. Is it what we hope for or some other crazy s.h.i.t.

Honestly you can expect anything from them chicken people

Edited May 7, 2014 by franko

[Britsimon 18]

A reason for the drop in OC is likely to do with 2014 being over subscribed. It was most likely based on 2012 statistics, as was talked about in great detail on previous posts. The highest OC 2015 is likely what KCC thinks OC will need to fill the quota. I did see some OC 2015 numbers in the low 2000's so those numbers might be safe.

This is still just a theory nobody really knows what KCC is up to.

All regions have had a decrease. The decrease for OC is roughly on par with other regions apart from AF, which has had only a small decrease.

It is almost as if they are listening to Sloner theories and doing the exact opposite of anything he says.

[rustawilliams 0]

All regions have had a decrease. The decrease for OC is roughly on par with other regions apart from AF, which has had only a small decrease.

It is almost as if they are listening to Sloner theories and doing the exact opposite of anything he says.

What's Sloner's theory?

[AU.Dan 0]

All regions have had a decrease. The decrease for OC is roughly on par with other regions apart from AF, which has had only a small decrease.

It is almost as if they are listening to Sloner theories and doing the exact opposite of anything he says.

What do think about using the high 2015 numbers as an estimate as to what is safe for 2014. Would KCC be deceasing these numbers because they see them as being a more realistic outcome for everyone going current.

Edited May 8, 2014 by AU.Dan

[Eucn 2]

I'm actually planning to give'em a ring tomorrow. Need to ask a question about personal detail update and I will ask again what are my chances. Like I said before, I was under the impression that June numbers are going to be good and that was probably KFC ladies' wish cause we know how June turned out so... I would not celebrate yet. Actually I would not celebrate at all till my/your number is current.

Also will ask what is KFC view on current. Is it what we hope for or some other crazy s.h.i.t.

Honestly you can expect anything from them chicken people

Franko, I have checked KFC view on current both in official documents and conversation. Current means that the KCC "believes" that there are visa enough to satisfy all demand, however KFC is free to retrogress the cut-off if this belief is proven wrong by facts. So in theory it is possible to go current in August and then reintroduce a numerical cut-off in September if demand during the next few months suddenly spiked. So basically the visa bulletin is an educated guess from KFC.

[Britsimon 18]

What's Sloner's theory?

That everyone will get a Green Card and a lifetime supply of KFC chicken.

[Britsimon 18]

What do think about using the high 2015 numbers as an estimate as to what is safe for 2014. Would KCC be deceasing these numbers because they see them as being a more realistic outcome for everyone going current.

I think that is exactly right.

Look, a normal year had around 100k selectees. 2013 had 105k and then had an extra 5k (estimated) in a second draw. They eventually issued 51k visas from those 110k and apart from the Iran cutoff I don't think anyone missed out. Because of NACARA, we figured out that the final availability for visas could be as high as 54.5k - an increase of about 7%. So - 7% more than 110k would be pretty safe - maybe a few more.

I have been saying for a LONG time that the 110k could be increased by a factor and that the 2014 cutoff would be between 110K and 140k, and probably 115k to 120k in the range of - so I was telling people months ago to work out where (at a regional level) their number came within their region. If their number was in the top 80% in their region I made the point that they could therefore think of themselves in the top 80% in the world (i.e. the first 112k - 80% of 140k). So - someone at 80% or less was safe, someone in the 80 - 90% was in the danger zone and someone above 90% was in trouble. VERY simplistic - but look at what USCIS have done with 2015 - they have knocked the 140k down by 10% - presumably because they expect the top 10% to be in trouble.

The actual adjustments have varied by region. AF has only "lost" 6% whereas EU has "lost" 13%. THat might be a reaction to the high fraud/refusal/AP rates in AF region...

Franko, I have checked KFC view on current both in official documents and conversation. Current means that the KCC "believes" that there are visa enough to satisfy all demand, however KFC is free to retrogress the cut-off if this belief is proven wrong by facts. So in theory it is possible to go current in August and then reintroduce a numerical cut-off in September if demand during the next few months suddenly spiked. So basically the visa bulletin is an educated guess from KFC.kfc5.jpeg

Doesn't always feel too educated.