Actual Crimea voting results

[Sousuke 1,214]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-15-voted-for-annexation/

According to this purported report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout of Crimean voters was only 30 percent. And of these, only half voted for the referendum–meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.

Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

what a joke..

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-15-voted-for-annexation/

According to this purported report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout of Crimean voters was only 30 percent. And of these, only half voted for the referendum–meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.

Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

what a joke..

Surprised? I am not. I've seen how Soviets do elections and referenda. I never fell for this piece of Soviet propaganda.

[OnMyWayID 1,489]

Finally they have enough land to park all those tanks.

[Crashed~N2~Me 970]

(but at this point) What difference does it make?! (please imagine those words shrieked with the intensity of ....of...well... with whatever creature terrifies you the most & or causes you to vomit violently)

But seriously - At this point - what difference does it make...nah..I can't do it. I type those words and I have an instant desire to cut myself with safety pins.

Move along.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Crashed~N2~Me

[OnMyWayID 1,489]

sometimes bad happens and we are helpless to stop it..

[GandD 5,966]

Yep, it sucks. I hate it.

[Dakine10 5,452]

Putin's is weak!! A real dictator doesn't need a human rights council.

15% .

[Dakine10 5,452]

The Crimea referendum “15% for” myth

http://humanrightsinvestigations.org/2014/05/06/the-crimea-referendum-15-percent-for-myth/

The Crimea referendum “15% for” myth

May 6, 2014 — 2 Comments

The idea that only 15% of Crimeans voted to join Russia is speeding around the internet after anarticle was published in Forbes magazine written by Professor Paul Roderick Gregory.

According to Professor Gregory

“The website of the “President of Russia’s Council on Civil Society and Human Rights” posted a blog that was quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste.”

“According to the Council’s report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout was a maximum 30%. And of these, only half voted for annexation – meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.

“The fate of Crimea, therefore, was decided by the 15 percent of Crimeans, who voted in favor of unification with Russia (under the watchful eye of Kalashnikov-toting soldiers).”

Unfortunately for Professor Gregory, the blog post wasn’t pulled down and is available (in Russian)here.

The blog post is based on the work and proposals of Svetlana Gannushkina, Evgeny Bobrovy and Olga Tseytlina who visited Crimea on a study visit in April.

Svetlana Gannushkina is fiercely against the annexation of Crimea, chiefly on legal grounds, but the main point is that Professor Gregory, in his Forbes article, has completely misconstrued the nature of the blog post and falsely extrapolated from the (unscientific and imprecise) figures given within it.

According to the blog post (based on “survey participants and citizens”) The vast majority of inhabitants of Sevastopol voted in a referendum to join Russia (50-80% turnout), Crimea according to various sources for joining Russia voted 50-60% voter turnout with a total of 30-50% ;

So, this is no “accidental post” of the “real Crimean election results” but an estimation by the members of this working group based on “various sources.”

Now, even if we accept that the authors of the blog are correct in the wide range of percentages they give (a big “if”), we can see, thanks to the original blog not having been pulled down, that Professor Gregory has totally distorted the figures.

To try to make any genuine calculation as to the percentage who voted for reunion, based on what is in the blog, is a slightly pointless task but we would have to make some assumptions. If we assume “vast majority” of Sevastopol voters means a minimum of 80% and a maximum of 99% and the electorate proportions of Sevastopol to Crimea are 15:85, then the blog figures would translate into a minimum of 18.65% and a maximum of 36.96% of the electorate voting for reunion. More importantly, in terms of actual voters (the way elections usually work), the figures would be aminimum of 54.39%; and a maximum of 65.41%.

Professor Gregory has, dishonestly, arrived at his 15% figure by taking the minimum figure for Crimea for both turnout and for voters for union, calling them the maximum, and then ignoring Sevastopol. He has also pretended the report is based on the “real results,” when it seems to be little more than the imprecise estimates of a small working group who were apparently against the idea of the referendum in the first place.

It appears that Professor Gregory is intent on deceiving his readers about the vote in Crimea and its legitimacy, probably as part of the widespread campaign to deny the people of Crimea their legitimate rights to self-determination and to demonize Russia in the process.

Professor Gregory and Forbes should give a full account of this episode. In addition, the institutions to which Professor Gregory belongs, including the Hoover Institution at Stanford, the University of Houston where he is Cullen Professor of Economics and the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin where he is a research professor should have a close look at what this deception says about his intellectual integrity.

May 6, 2014 — 2 Comments

Edited May 6, 2014 by Dakine10

[OnMyWayID 1,489]

sometimes bad posts happen and we are helpless to stop them..

...although in this case not for long: In August 2014 a new Russian law goes into effect forcing ISPs to store and share all data and identity of Russian internet users so a tragedy such as this bad reporting can't happen again.. http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/05/06/309833033/putins-internet-plan-requires-sharing-with-security-services luckily it also forces all Russian citizens to use only servers inside Russia for blogs and other social media to keep better control of security for its people. Nice to know we won't have to worry about sloppy numbers such as these anymore.

[Dakine10 5,452]

sometimes bad posts happen and we are helpless to stop them..

...although in this case not for long: In August 2014 a new Russian law goes into effect forcing ISPs to store and share all data and identity of Russian internet users so a tragedy such as this bad reporting can't happen again.. http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/05/06/309833033/putins-internet-plan-requires-sharing-with-security-services luckily it also forces all Russian citizens to use only servers inside Russia for blogs and other social media to keep better control of security for its people. Nice to know we won't have to worry about sloppy numbers such as these anymore.

The law is worrisome. It seems kind of familiar. Perhaps Snowden has been sharing secrets with the Russians after all.

The sloppy math however came from the Forbe's guy. Probably no accident. I don't think the Russian law extends to journalists or bloggers outside Russia.

The group that came up with these numbers; Rights in Russia, are well known activists in Russia. I doubt they are scared of having their identities known, since there identities are already known. Not everyone in Russia is scared of Putin. The numbers came from polling they did independently in Crimea (along with other unlisted sources) so contrary to the topic title, they are not the actual referendum results.

[Sousuke 1,214]

The Crimea referendum “15% for” myth

http://humanrightsinvestigations.org/2014/05/06/the-crimea-referendum-15-percent-for-myth/

The irony of this rebuttal is that it still puts the Kremlin numbers in question.

[Dakine10 5,452]

The irony of this rebuttal is that it still puts the Kremlin numbers in question.

The irony is the Forbe's piece is just as much a work of propaganda as any Kremlin numbers. They discount the Sevastopol vote, which is 1/6 of the total and they use the lowest possible statistical poll numbers from the rest of Crimea.

And then they try to represent it as a "slip up" release of official numbers.

[OnMyWayID 1,489]

The irony is the Forbe's piece is just as much a work of propaganda as any Kremlin numbers. They discount the Sevastopol vote, which is 1/6 of the total and they use the lowest possible statistical poll numbers from the rest of Crimea.

And then they try to represent it as a "slip up" release of official numbers.

I thought it was Forbes source that was in question...

Yesterday, however, according to a major Ukrainian news site, TSN.ua, the website of the President of Russia’s Council on Civil Society and Human Rights (shortened to President’s Human Rights Council) posted a report that was quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste.

That seems a more reasonable source for a Ukrainian bias of the numbers

[Dakine10 5,452]

I thought it was Forbes source that was in question...

Yesterday, however, according to a major Ukrainian news site, TSN.ua, the website of the President of Russia’s Council on Civil Society and Human Rights (shortened to President’s Human Rights Council) posted a report that was quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste.

That seems a more reasonable source for a Ukrainian bias of the numbers

He did use that site for the 15% but he also posted the numbers from the other site. At the very least given the source he used and then looking at the overall numbers, he probably should have checked the math.

All 3 sites that are linked in this topic are using the same numbers from Svetlana Gannushkina's research. To me, the 50-60% vote for unification is realistic, but the 30-50% voter turnout is not. I would like to see the actual population data and sample size they used in their research.

Gannushkina's numbers are closer to the truth than the Kremlin's, or Forbes, or TSN, but they should not be referred to as the actual referendum results.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

The irony of this rebuttal is that it still puts the Kremlin numbers in question.

That's Soviet Russia for you. Here is how "voting" breaks down in those parts. Look at the percentages - well over 140% total.

But hey, it's just that somebody messed up when they finagled the results...