DV2015 statistics....

[Britsimon 18]

Lol

What about "random" do you not understand?

I know someone from my country who won two consecutive years as well. And there are plenty of people who enter year after year and never win. Because it's a random selection.

I always wear my lucky hat when I enter....

Could you explain what you mean by random?

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

I always wear my lucky hat when I enter....

Could you explain what you mean by random?

I mean, inter alia, the poster seemed to imply that there is a "lucky day" on which to enter (hence asking entry dates for both years). It wouldn't be random if it picked from particular days only or any other pattern based on dates.... (....which is why the original 2012 draw was cancelled...)

[Russian_Illusion 0]

Oh man where to start - you are making inaccurate generalisations and misquoting terms faster than I can read.

OK - you keep same that people have demonstrated "dual intent". No - they have demonstrated "immigrant intent". Dual intent (as you rightly say) is for some types of visa such as H1 that allow the person to be applying for a temporary visa and at the same time be applying for a immigrant visa (LPR). I have done exactly that with no issues. Regarding the blanket statements about most people will be turned down for their future temporary visas, that is not true as others have explained.

Regarding who might be motivated to apply. This is the DIVERSITY visa - you have no idea what people want from a move. I for instance had a very nice life in the UK earning much more than 80k pa and I have options for an employment based GC or family based GC. However, DV is faster and simpler (therefore cheaper) than either of those options. My motivation for moving - the weather. So - please understand, things are rarely as black and white as you seem to believe they are...

I understand what dual intent means as you may read from my earlier posts to Susie ,yes I miss-used the term.. thanks for the pointing that out though.

Check this link please : http://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/can-i-apply-for-b1-b2-visitor-visa-after-submittin-1307772.html

You'll find for example that:

Mr. Carl Michael Shusterman,Former INS Trial Attorney (1976-82) - Seven Lawyers with 100+ Years of Immigration Experience

With 19 other lawyers who agree with him gives this "may seem" blanket statement "Probably not, since your immigrant intent is clear." in reply to exactly same question about DV lottery and B1/B2 Visa. I'll use "probably" in my future blanket statement for more credibility

There should be other lawyers and opinions who don't agree with above but the mere fact that lawyers may have different opinion about it makes is on its own worth considering.What I really wanted to stress out is that filing immigration petition through DV Lottery has a serious consciousness which may be very significant for someone, It's a fact one has to be aware of before filing especially if your chances are close to zero ( wrong data for example, or education level misinterpretation ), I think a lot of people will appreciate this piece of info.

"I for instance had a very nice life in the UK earning much more than 80k pa and I have options for an employment based GC or family based GC. However, DV is faster and simpler (therefore cheaper) than either of those options"

I strongly disagree with taking this example as a point to consider when we are talking about majority, a 1% chance of winning the lottery (followed by 50% chance to get a visa) is neither faster,simpler nor more reliable than any other option, personally I'll never include that in my future plans as an option even if I applied 10 times, but again that's my personal opinion.

Just to clear things out, my statement should not be understood as black and white, that's why I used the word " Majority " of immigrant looking

for higher standard of life and quality of living. Please check this link and let me know if we can consider your example derived from UK as a case representing majority. https://cis.org/immigrants_profile_2007 , and please consider illegal immigrants as that's an important indicator as well.

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

The "majority" of the type of people you mean (which simon and I both think you overstate in lottery winners) are unlikely to be jetting off to the US for a holiday though, so in many cases there actually is intent to illegally immigrate when applying for a B visa. I don't deny filling in the DS form is legally showing intent to immigrate. But it's not this permanent handicap you imply, for people who genuinely want to just visit thereafter.

Incidentally part of the reason I disagree with your "majority" statements is that I have seen the BLS data for DV vs other immigrants. I would have to go look for it again, but it struck me that compared to all other classes of immigrants - which admittedly in the US is mainly family based - they were significantly better educated and held better jobs. I seem to recall that something like 25-30% held professional/managerial positions. I'm guessing that doesn't tie up with your idea of 99% of them being prepared to scrape by on backbreaking minimum wage work. And in turn I'd guess part of the reason for that is the process. - especially for people coming from poor countries - is prohibitively expensive. $330 visa fee. Probably $300-500 medicals. $165 USCIS fee. Airplane ticket. Do you know that the world bank considers $2 a day the border between poor and middle class in Africa? So the cost of the process is more than the annual income of a poor person in Africa. Figure out how many of the type of people you are talking about can go through with the process even if selected (this is one of the reason there are so many Africans who don't follow up). But maybe the stats on education/jobs among DV immigrants start making more sense now.

Also you are aware that the vast majority of immigrants as per your CIS link are family not dv right.... These people get in because they are sponsored legally through family members in the US, not on their own fundamentals. (I didn't spend much time on that website but it looked a bit like a right wing anti immigrant rant to me, I may be mistaken but that was my impression)

Finally, please don't be disingenuous. It's very clear that when britsimon is talking about winning the lottery as being the easy route he means after you've won, not basing your plans on chances of winning. And you yourself have already pointed out that someone with that background is highly unlikely to be denied. I also have no idea where you get your 50% refusal rate odds from because for DV overall they are much lower than that, the unqualified tend to not follow through with interviews.

Edited May 6, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[Russian_Illusion 0]

The "majority" of the type of people you mean (which simon and I both think you overstate in lottery winners) are unlikely to be jetting off to the US for a holiday though, so in many cases there actually is intent to illegally immigrate when applying for a B visa. I don't deny filling in the DS form is legally showing intent to immigrate. But it's not this permanent handicap you imply, for people who genuinely want to just visit thereafter.

Incidentally part of the reason I disagree with your "majority" statements is that I have seen the BLS data for DV vs other immigrants. I would have to go look for it again, but it struck me that compared to all other classes of immigrants - which admittedly in the US is mainly family based - they were significantly better educated and held better jobs. I seem to recall that something like 25-30% held professional/managerial positions. I'm guessing that doesn't tie up with your idea of 99% of them being prepared to scrape by on backbreaking minimum wage work. And in turn I'd guess part of the reason for that is the process. - especially for people coming from poor countries - is prohibitively expensive. $330 visa fee. Probably $300-500 medicals. $165 USCIS fee. Airplane ticket. Do you know that the world bank considers $2 a day the border between poor and middle class in Africa? So the cost of the process is more than the annual income of a poor person in Africa. Figure out how many of the type of people you are talking about can go through with the process even if selected (this is one of the reason there are so many Africans who don't follow up). But maybe the stats on education/jobs among DV immigrants start making more sense now.

Also you are aware that the vast majority of immigrants as per your CIS link are family not dv right.... These people get in because they are sponsored legally through family members in the US, not on their own fundamentals. (I didn't spend much time on that website but it looked a bit like a right wing anti immigrant rant to me, I may be mistaken but that was my impression)

Finally, please don't be disingenuous. It's very clear that when britsimon is talking about winning the lottery as being the easy route he means after you've won, not basing your plans on chances of winning. And you yourself have already pointed out that someone with that background is highly unlikely to be denied. I also have no idea where you get your 50% refusal rate odds from because for DV overall they are much lower than that, the unqualified tend to not follow through with interviews.

What part of " looking for higher standard of life and quality of living" you don't like? the fact that you're looking for something better doesn't mean your'e starving from hunger.

Just to reaffirm your statement the applicant of DV may get rejected if he cannot prove that he will not be on welfare (US material help), i forgot the legal term they use for that but applicant should have around 19k$ PA of earning if I recall the figure correctly.

winning chances you can find here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversity_Immigrant_Visa

I'm not trying to be disingenuous really, and I have respect to all of you guys and I appreciate that you're spending time helping people you don't know and give them advises for free .. it takes a genuine human being to help others like this. Thank you again and please excuse me if I sounded rude ...

Edited May 6, 2014 by DuIllusion

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

Just to reaffirm your statement the applicant of DV may get rejected if he cannot prove that he will not be on welfare (US material help), i forgot the legal term they use for that but applicant should have around 19k$ PA of earning if I recall the figure correctly.

winning chances you can find here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversity_Immigrant_Visa

"Winning chances" has nothing to do with what we were discussing. Check out refusal rates on a real DOS site please. The wiki page on DV is Raevsky's fiefdom.

Yes of course you can be rejected if you can't prove you will not be a public charge. $10K per adult. This is the type of person who earns relatively low income enough that when he pitches up asking for a tourist visa the embassy will be suspicious anyway. Plenty of people get refused B visas without having sent in DS forms. It's just another flag. I can almost guarantee you that a DS form will not be a deciding factor in an interview. If you can't prove enough ties to go back it doesn't matter, you will be refused anyway. If you can prove ties to go back home, you will be approved regardless. As you already know there is already a presumption of immigration anyway when you apply for a non-immigrant visa...in other words there is already presumption of what you are worried the DS form is signalling.

And then you are contradicting yourself, as you were clearly saying in previous posts that it is exactly the poor people you were taking about because according to you comfortable people didn't need to go to the US.

Oh, and I'm done with chasing shifting goalposts in this particular conversation.

Edited May 6, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[KASSEY 0]

Lol

What about "random" do you not understand?

I know someone from my country who won two consecutive years as well. And there are plenty of people who enter year after year and never win. Because it's a random selection.

Alright SussieQQQ.I now understand.I will keep on trying.

[vladek15425 7]

Alright SussieQQQ.I now understand.I will keep on trying.

Its a lottery

[Britsimon 18]

I mean, inter alia, the poster seemed to imply that there is a "lucky day" on which to enter (hence asking entry dates for both years). It wouldn't be random if it picked from particular days only or any other pattern based on dates.... (....which is why the original 2012 draw was cancelled...)

LOL - you did know I was kidding... right?

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

LOL - you did know I was kidding... right?

Yes but random people out there wouldn't

[Britsimon 18]

Dullusion,

You have posted a whole bunch of stuff that I can't really spare the time to reply to. Suffice to say that Susie and I know, in great detail, ALL the points you are trying to make and we are careful to make sure people get good accurate information (including the point about declaring immigrant intent). So, we can either spend our time chasing you around where you tell us a bunch of stuff we already know and discuss frequently OR we can focus on those that need help and are happy to get that without arguing with us. I'll choose the latter option.

Simon

Yes but random people out there wouldn't

ahhhh zee double bluff!

[Russian_Illusion 0]

Dullusion,

You have posted a whole bunch of stuff that I can't really spare the time to reply to. Suffice to say that Susie and I know, in great detail, ALL the points you are trying to make and we are careful to make sure people get good accurate information (including the point about declaring immigrant intent). So, we can either spend our time chasing you around where you tell us a bunch of stuff we already know and discuss frequently OR we can focus on those that need help and are happy to get that without arguing with us. I'll choose the latter option.

Simon

ahhhh zee double bluff!

I'm in no way intended to question your or Susie's superior knowledge, God forbid.. please except my apologies

[Gina_g 0]

Hello!

Is the number 55k visas for DV2015 confirmed? Some of you mentioned that this number was included in the selectee letter for DV2015.

Britsimon, you also mentioned in a post that there was a statement mentioning both 125k and 55k. Was this in the visa bulletin? I can't locate this information.

Thank you so much!

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

I'd seen someone mention that the selection letter for 2015 said 55k, but others said it didn't..

If you scroll down to the end of this vb http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-june-2014.html you'll see they talk about 50k visas available, as well as just over 125k selectees.

[Stooph 0]

Hi there!

my case number is 2015AF00015XXX and i have a univeristy degree.

do i have a chance of being accepted?

thanks in advance