DV2015 statistics....

[Britsimon 18]

Hi, I appreciate any help you guys can provide me with... so thanks in advance

I've just been selected for DV CN 2015AS0011*** . After going through forums for the last two days I lost any hope because of my high CN .

Is it so? are my chances very low ?

August or september next year !

I think it depends where you are from (your chargeable country). If you are from Nepal or Iran, then yes the number is a bit high. If you are from another country then that isn't too bad. Iran and Nepal have much higher number of entries than other countries, so as a consequence, they take a high percentage of the early case numbers until they run out of cases.

[franko 2]

Sloner + decent smilies is much more fun.

Franky, to your point from earlier, I think the 125k for 2015 might have (let me expand on that in a moment) nuked my "140 calculated on 2012" theory - but it hasn't restored my faith in KCC yet. Let's see what the DV numbers do this week - because currently I am still strongly believing that 2014 (and therefore 2015) will produce a lot of sad people.

Now about the 125. I expected something in the "normal" range of 100 - 110. DV2013 had about 110 in the end (after about 5k "second draw"). So - yes I was very surprised to see the 110. However, the new normal of 125 was released with a statement of 125k AND 55k. That means they increased the visas (at least the headline) by 10%. So - 110k is 121k!!

Now for months (or at least it feels that way) we have been talking about NACARA, and as I posted before I could not imagine more than a few hundred visas going to NACARA. So - the new normal really is an official confirmation (of sorts) that we should see max visas of around 54k/54.5k in 2014 - so that should give us breathing room all the way up to Frankynumberville.

Now then about NACARA understanding. I just want to gloat for a moment (unbecoming I know - but whatever). 'Twas I who figured that out, I don't remember seeing anything solid about it before. Not bad for an uneducated kid from the bad education country of the UK. Eat that Slonerman and Raevsky!

I'm all up for a trip to Frankynumberville.

And cheers for NACARA theory (good name for a band by the way ) and to be honest all selfless help to others. Same goes for SQQQ. Vladdy and Sloner love it too much so no credit to them

Edited May 4, 2014 by franko

[Eucn 2]

Guys I don't want to brag but we're the cool kids here Few more days of posting and this site will up go up in google rankings and this will be the forum to be

Class of 2014

[adinutzyc21 2]

OK, so how does this work? Does it matter which country got how many places? Isn't this based entirely on luck? Also, random?

My understanding is that if you have a number, say EU30,800 and you're from Romania (again, my number is a little bit lower), then you'll have an interview whenever that number is called provided your country didn't run out of the 7% of the total number of visa allotted (so, 3,500). Is that correct? In that case, those numbers only matter if you're the 3,501st person from your country and your CN does get called, right?

[tplj 0]

I think it depends where you are from (your chargeable country). If you are from Nepal or Iran, then yes the number is a bit high. If you are from another country then that isn't too bad. Iran and Nepal have much higher number of entries than other countries, so as a consequence, they take a high percentage of the early case numbers until they run out of cases.

Mine is AS2014 105XX, is there my chance? I am from nepal

[Britsimon 18]

Mine is AS2014 105XX, is there my chance? I am from nepal

Nepal and Iran both have a lot of selectees and Nepal in particular gets high response and success rate - so 105xx should be ok - but again - watch this year to get an idea.

[tplj 0]

Thank u bro for your reply. But actually my CN is for this year 2014.

[Britsimon 18]

Thank u bro for your reply. But actually my CN is for this year 2014.

Ahhh I see - well Nepal is making strong progress. Some are predicting a cutoff could happen around your number - so it is too close to be cartain - you just have to wait and see. Good luck!

Edited May 5, 2014 by Britsimon

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

OK, so how does this work? Does it matter which country got how many places? Isn't this based entirely on luck? Also, random?

My understanding is that if you have a number, say EU30,800 and you're from Romania (again, my number is a little bit lower), then you'll have an interview whenever that number is called provided your country didn't run out of the 7% of the total number of visa allotted (so, 3,500). Is that correct? In that case, those numbers only matter if you're the 3,501st person from your country and your CN does get called, right?

Yes to above.

Countries only matter if you are from one that could be subject to the country limit. A handful of countries have lower cut offs than the rest of the regions due to high entry numbers - currently Egypt, Ethiopia and Uzbekistan. (And Nigeria but they are not in DV2015)

[Russian_Illusion 0]

I think it depends where you are from (your chargeable country). If you are from Nepal or Iran, then yes the number is a bit high. If you are from another country then that isn't too bad. Iran and Nepal have much higher number of entries than other countries, so as a consequence, they take a high percentage of the early case numbers until they run out of cases.

Thanks you Britsimon,

I'm from Syria, living in different country for now. Would you please explain how country of origin may affect my case?

Maybe I'm missing something or my interpretation of the numbers is wrong.

So studying 2013 statistics I found that the maximum case number got current for Asia was ~ AS0010500, so in order for my number ( ~AS0011000) to be current we have to have an extra of 1000 case numbers (CN) current this year,which is equals to around 2000 extra visas ( on average each Case Number has two derivatives even 2.5).

Knowing that total of ~8500 visa was issued to Asia (18% of total number of issued visas ) , so Asia in DV2015 have to have at least 10500 visas which is around 24% increase in the number of visas ... I found it pretty unlikely and my chances are very low ... .please correct me if I'm missing something

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

So studying 2013 statistics I found that the maximum case number got current for Asia was ~ AS0010500,

This is not correct. Asia was current at year end which means all those who wanted visas were able to get them - with the exception of Iran which hit the country limit on 20 September.

[vladek15425 7]

They interviwed all the selectees in dv13 when visa bulletin show current at the latest month of the fiscal year it means they are visas available for everyone.

Only exception was iran they hit the country limit 3770 per country...

You must watch the VB 2014 and see what happens that you can take up an assumption for dv2015...

If asia goes current you will surely get an interview because syria are not loaded with winner usually...

Thanks you Britsimon,

I'm from Syria, living in different country for now. Would you please explain how country of origin may affect my case?

Maybe I'm missing something or my interpretation of the numbers is wrong.

So studying 2013 statistics I found that the maximum case number got current for Asia was ~ AS0010500, so in order for my number ( ~AS0011000) to be current we have to have an extra of 1000 case numbers (CN) current this year,which is equals to around 2000 extra visas ( on average each Case Number has two derivatives even 2.5).

Knowing that total of ~8500 visa was issued to Asia (18% of total number of issued visas ) , so Asia in DV2015 have to have at least 10500 visas which is around 24% increase in the number of visas ... I found it pretty unlikely and my chances are very low ... .please correct me if I'm missing something

[rafikbo76 2]

Thanks you Britsimon,

I'm from Syria, living in different country for now. Would you please explain how country of origin may affect my case?

Maybe I'm missing something or my interpretation of the numbers is wrong.

So studying 2013 statistics I found that the maximum case number got current for Asia was ~ AS0010500, so in order for my number ( ~AS0011000) to be current we have to have an extra of 1000 case numbers (CN) current this year,which is equals to around 2000 extra visas ( on average each Case Number has two derivatives even 2.5).

Knowing that total of ~8500 visa was issued to Asia (18% of total number of issued visas ) , so Asia in DV2015 have to have at least 10500 visas which is around 24% increase in the number of visas ... I found it pretty unlikely and my chances are very low ... .please correct me if I'm missing something

You should also know that the extra 1000 cases you need may also contain holes (Actually lot of holes because at that number IRAN and NEPAL who take 80% of asia cases are excluded because of country limit),

So the real extra you need is very less than 1000, and from that 1000, lot of cases will be refused Visa. i personally think ur number is good.

As Susie mention before last year there were enough Visa for All selectee in Asia, and only Iran hit the 7% limit of issued Visa witch was around 3700 as Vladek already explained

[SusieQQQ 11,587]

Just for clarification: holes are gaps in the case numbers. For example if Asia goes up to 12K it does not mean there are 12000 actual cases. May have AS1, AS3, AS7 ie not all consecutive numbers are filled. Why? Firstly because there are people who get disqualified by KCC immediately after selection (for example duplicate entry) - these cases are tossed out before selectees are notified, but have 'used up' case numbers. Those are what I would call "proper" holes. Then there are "created" holes, by people who get selected but either do not return forms or do not show up for their interview. Then are the types of holes he mentions above, caused by case numbers that have been assigned to countries that have already hit the limit and therefore can not be used.

And then of course there are always some denials. So as you can see Rafikbo is correct that there will not be 1000 cases between 10000 and 11000.

Edited May 5, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[vladek15425 7]

Just add on sussie's post:

Last year they selected 62000 from africa with cn number AF01 untill AF116000... So because of the Holes the numbers are stratched...

And so on for the other regions...