Upcoming july visa bulletin 2014

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Last year asia current but iran hit the wall on the 20th september!

You do understand that KCC does not know in advance exactly how many acceptances vs refusals vs people showing up for interviews, correct? You do understand that if they had perfect foresight they would publish the entire year's VBs in advance? What is it you guys don't get about making estimates on best available information does not mean you can forecast exactly what is going to happen?

[rafikbo76 2]

Sorry I think this theory is kind of rubbish and anyway only affects countries close to the 7% limit which we know from past experience is very rare.

It is very obvious to anyone who can read and understand English what current is.

Vladek I disagree completely with you. If there are 2000 visas left for 3000 candidates, they will know what the quota countries are and they will impose a cut-off based on best estimate of what will actually be issued taking into account usual % of no shows and rejections. They will not just go "who cares let's just say current and arrange 3000 interview slots even though we know a third of those won't be needed". Of course their estimate may be out then you get a situation like Iran last year but you can't honestly tell me KCC goes to the trouble involved in scheduling appointments and sending files across the world etc if it doesn't expect them to actually happen, remember these are the same officers who interview for normal IVs. 1m a year nonDV immigrant visas and 50k DV, don't wanna waste slots that can be used for the really big load. And very simply if my theory is not correct then please explain why they have had cut offs in sept in the past. Why was Africa cut off at 62k in 2008 when it had been current in preceding years and was current years after? Answer: because that particular year they could see they were going to run out of AF visas.

Yes,

they should take into account the embassies capacity (too) to calculate the best estimate. and when the best estimate exceeds the rest of submitted document, the region went Current, Otherwise cut-off should be in place.

[vladek15425 7]

May be it was the case for EU;

But for Africa it was different; last cut-off was 81200 for august, but the max CN was 97001 after current.

As vladek said, they do believe that there were enough visa for the rest of the submitted document, Even the rest of submitted document is more than the available visa (I know it sounds not logic)

countries limit and success rate (that's what I think too) should be taken into account for the estimation of Current.

What I think too is Current is what the high CN hope

Yes,

may be the rest of submitted was more than the available visa but excluding the extra country limit for iran made the all region current

My point exactly!

Now it might be bit different for AF since we alraedy get special country cutoff I.e nigeria ha not a good succes rate but has a good response rate that why the never max-out and they get dragged under special cutoff untill the endo the FY...

But in asia they never put any country under special cutoff ( iran or nepal) like in AF region...

I think its because those two countries alone represent asia its self lol

But no matter what asia was current last year and kcc either new that iran will hit the limit and they still showed current or either they didn't care !

But the result speaks for its self current means IMO that visas are availbale for all the selectees left, but that exluding any extra selectees above loaded countries over 7% limit...

And last year was a good exemple in asia

[MalcomX 1]

July prediction:

AF= 57500

EU= 35100

AS=8375

OC=1370

SA=1650

[vladek15425 7]

July prediction:

AF= 57500

EU= 35100

AS=8375

OC=1370

SA=1650

If AF doesn't get 58k than it will be 54100 on the dot!

Just like 2010 cutoff

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

But no matter what asia was current last year and kcc either new that iran will hit the limit and they still showed current or either they didn't care !

You left out the obvious and correct option: their estimates were wrong.

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Here is the VB that proves vladek's theory wrong.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2006/visa-bulletin-for-september-2006.html

Africa current in September EXCEPT country cut-offs listed for Egypt and Ethiopia.

According to vladek's theory it would just have been current for everyone.

[dopos_d 0]

But the result speaks for its self current means IMO that visas are availbale for all the selectees left, but that exluding any extra selectees above loaded countries over 7% limit...

And last year was a good exemple in asia

Exactly it speaks for itself, still no numbers for Europe higher than the last cut off, if it happend for AF why it should happen for EU if it never happened before...

[vladek15425 7]

(You do understand that KCC does not know in advance exactly how many acceptances vs refusals vs people showing up for interviews, correct?)

(Vladek I disagree completely with you. If there are 2000 visas left for 3000 candidates, they will know what the quota countries are and they will impose a cut-off based on best estimate of what will actually be issued taking into account usual % of no shows and rejections.)

You are contradicting your self sussie!

[rafikbo76 2]

Exactly it speaks for itself, still no numbers for Europe higher than the last cut off, if it happend for AF why it should happen for EU if it never happened before...

We (I personally) didn't know it happened or not before

because the only detail about cases number treated was available for 2013, and 2014

The truth is based on one year uncompleted data (2013), we can't understand what is going on exactly

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Exactly it speaks for itself, still no numbers for Europe higher than the last cut off, if it happend for AF why it should happen for EU if it never happened before...

What never happened for EU before? There are past instances of ALL regions being cut off, if that is what you mean.

(You do understand that KCC does not know in advance exactly how many acceptances vs refusals vs people showing up for interviews, correct?)

(Vladek I disagree completely with you. If there are 2000 visas left for 3000 candidates, they will know what the quota countries are and they will impose a cut-off based on best estimate of what will actually be issued taking into account usual % of no shows and rejections.)

You are contradicting your self sussie!

I'm not contradicting myself at all, vladek. Both of those extracts talk about basing numbers on best estimates - means they cannot know exactly what the numbers will be. Please read again properly what I wrote. The first bit says they do not know the exact numbers in advance, the second bit says if the quota countries look like they will run out they will implement a cut off based on their estimates. You do know what the word "estimate" means. There is no contradiction here at all.

[rafikbo76 2]

What never happened for EU before? There are past instances of ALL regions being cut off, if that is what you mean.

I think he means Max CN interviewed never exceeds the last region cut-off before going CURRENT

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

I think he means Max CN interviewed never exceeds the last region cut-off before going CURRENT

Ok as stated, he can't know that without data going back which we don't seem to have.

People who just look at the last couple of years will think every region always goes current at year end.

[Buckyball 22]

No matter what you calculate, it will be wrong at the end

[dopos_d 0]

Ok as stated, he can't know that without data going back which we don't seem to have.

People who just look at the last couple of years will think every region always goes current at year end.

Yes, this exactly what i meant... Anyway for me i have more questions raised than figured out... I hope that if it worked for Africa it will really work for Europe.