Upcoming july visa bulletin 2014

[ARNOLD NGANDA 0]

Well someone told me about this place n am eagerly waiting for tomorrow n Friday to c what July has to say.....

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Removal of the country does not affect the allocation of quotas. A striking example - Bangladesh.Asia 2011 -9167 visas, 2013 - 9480 without Bangladesh. Can safely discard this hypothesis.

Thanks Sloner, this was what I was wondering, so basically removal of Nigeria benefits other African countries much more than other regions.

From what I understand the formula they use first looks at regions and only then at countries within those regions?

[kaleem999 11]

What is the meaninig of current in visa bulitten.

Is it mean every one can be interviewed in dv lottery?

[vladek15425 7]

What is the meaninig of current in visa bulitten.

Is it mean every one can be interviewed in dv lottery?

Yes

[rafikbo76 2]

Thanks Sloner, this was what I was wondering, so basically removal of Nigeria benefits other African countries much more than other regions.

From what I understand the formula they use first looks at regions and only then at countries within those regions?

This is Sloner 2.0

Everything said correct,

DV-2014 number of selectee wasn't because of 2012 response rate (and may be because of new software). now another proof of quota region after exclusion of a special country;

Simon, vladek, you should watch ur back

[vladek15425 7]

This is Sloner 2.0

Everything said correct,

DV-2014 number of selectee wasn't because of 2012 response rate (and may be because of new software). now another proof of quota region after exclusion of a special country;

Simon, vladek, you should watch ur back

Lol

That why we call his theory an axiom, its evident truth by it self hahaha

[dopos_d 0]

Yes

In this case what is the highest number known that was procesed after Europe got current?

For a better understanding i would propose to take a couple of years

2010-

2011-

2012- not relevant

2013-

Thank you!

[rafikbo76 2]

In this case what is the highest number known that was procesed after Europe got current?

For a better understanding i would propose to take a couple of years

2010-

2011-

2012- not relevant

2013-

Thank you!

Unfortunately the only CEAC data we have is for 2013 (and 2014 of course)

The MAX CN for EU was 30532,

FOR 2014, we already have 32940, for June CUT-OFF

You should watch the next 3 VBs (DV-2014) to have an idea of what the next year max CN will be

[vladek15425 7]

In this case what is the highest number known that was procesed after Europe got current?

For a better understanding i would propose to take a couple of years

2010-

2011-

2012- not relevant

2013-

Thank you!

Because it showed current on the visa bulletin in the last years we are not realy able to trace the last CNs.

You can try and guess by checking the VB website :

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html

[vladek15425 7]

BTW the current definition can take an other sense!

Exemple:

If there is 2000 visas available for AF in september and we have 3000 candidates left with special countries that is about to hit the country limit, they will probably call current knowing that there is only few left from the heavy weight countries....

That's what I believe!

[dopos_d 0]

Unfortunately the only CEAC data we have is for 2013 (and 2014 of course)

The MAX CN for EU was 30532,

FOR 2014, we already have 32940, for June CUT-OFF

You should watch the next 3 VBs (DV-2014) to have an idea of what the next year max CN will be

Well this is the answer i got from another forum, by our well known person Sloner;) in the end i just do not understand why is everyone hoping for current, i tend to beleive that current is not the best option for high CN... and following the situation we have the, last years the max CN that passed are those we saw in cut offs... The only exception is that june is a couple of K's more then previous years. So all the theories for me are quite useless... I hope i am wrong but the real numbers we have do not lie...

[dopos_d 0]

BTW the current definition can take an other sense!

Exemple:

If there is 2000 visas available for AF in september and we have 3000 candidates left with special countries that is about to hit the country limit, they will probably call current knowing that there is only few left from the heavy weight countries....

That's what I believe!

Exactly it seams to me that the current has a completly different meaning from the one we know or tend to believe to know....

[vladek15425 7]

Exactly it seams to me that the current has a completly different meaning from the one we know or tend to believe to know....

Last year asia current but iran hit the wall on the 20th september!

[rafikbo76 2]

Well this is the answer i got from another forum, by our well known person Sloner;) in the end i just do not understand why is everyone hoping for current, i tend to beleive that current is not the best option for high CN... and following the situation we have the, last years the max CN that passed are those we saw in cut offs... The only exception is that june is a couple of K's more then previous years. So all the theories for me are quite useless... I hope i am wrong but the real numbers we have do not lie...

May be it was the case for EU;

But for Africa it was different; last cut-off was 81200 for august, but the max CN was 97001 after current.

As vladek said, they do believe that there were enough visa for the rest of the submitted document, Even the rest of submitted document is more than the available visa (I know it sounds not logic)

countries limit and success rate (that's what I think too) should be taken into account for the estimation of Current.

What I think too is Current is what the high CN hope

Last year asia current but iran hit the wall on the 20th september!

Yes,

may be the rest of submitted was more than the available visa but excluding the extra country limit for iran made the all region current

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

BTW the current definition can take an other sense!

Exemple:

If there is 2000 visas available for AF in september and we have 3000 candidates left with special countries that is about to hit the country limit, they will probably call current knowing that there is only few left from the heavy weight countries....

That's what I believe!

Exactly it seams to me that the current has a completly different meaning from the one we know or tend to believe to know....

Sorry I think this theory is kind of rubbish and anyway only affects countries close to the 7% limit which we know from past experience is very rare.

It is very obvious to anyone who can read and understand English what current is.

Vladek I disagree completely with you. If there are 2000 visas left for 3000 candidates, they will know what the quota countries are and they will impose a cut-off based on best estimate of what will actually be issued taking into account usual % of no shows and rejections. They will not just go "who cares let's just say current and arrange 3000 interview slots even though we know a third of those won't be needed". Of course their estimate may be out then you get a situation like Iran last year but you can't honestly tell me KCC goes to the trouble involved in scheduling appointments and sending files across the world etc if it doesn't expect them to actually happen, remember these are the same officers who interview for normal IVs. 1m a year nonDV immigrant visas and 50k DV, don't wanna waste slots that can be used for the really big load. And very simply if my theory is not correct then please explain why they have had cut offs in sept in the past. Why was Africa cut off at 62k in 2008 when it had been current in preceding years and was current years after? Answer: because that particular year they could see they were going to run out of AF visas. Also if you go look properly at past VBs there were years when the region was current except for certain countries, I remember seeing this, so this completely squashes your theory that they will just let those countries hit the wall even if the rest of the region is current.

Edited May 7, 2014 by SusieQQQ