Upcoming july visa bulletin 2014

[vladek15425 7]

Thanks for all your comments concerning my flow chart.

I would like to point out that I use "Case Number per one visa" instead of refusal rate, family rate and absence rate. I think that combining those 3 factors in one general value gives a better prediction. This value is now at about 2,34 Case Number per one visa issued for EU (if the data I based my calculation on, is correct).

I was doing calculations only for EU, and I saw that "Case Number per one visa" is raising every year. We know how many visas were issued every year for EU, but I do not know how many (exacly) CN were interviewed every year (cut-off number does not represent highest CN on interview). Can somebody provide me with those values? We could predict future "Case Number per one visa" value.

One more thing: I was looking at this data: http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

and I think there is a mistake for Poland in DV2013. It is showing 752 visas issued for Poland in DV2013, but CEAC data is showing 1352 visas issued. Which data is correct?

Doeas it mean that the total visas issued for EU in DV2013 is also wrong?

I see on the top of PDF document: "FY 2013 data is preliminary and subject to change. Any changes would not be statistically significant." but 751 visas comparing to 1352 visas is a significant difference.

If my understanding is correct I believe you are calculating one visa per one case number! If so than its incorrect,because CNs do include hidden family derivatives.

Exemple: if 2014EU01 has 4 family members and his visa is granted than it will count as 4 visas taken out of the 50k visas available...

What data are you using for 2013? Raevsky's one ?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?pli=1&key=0AmbWzexdyvIldEs1d3VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=11

Check again and let us know !

Thanks

[vladek15425 7]

@scym

We also belive that raevsky's data is missing ! He calls it him self sloner effect, but if now you are saying its showing extra number than its completely faulty!

[franko 2]

I think your point about CN per Visa is good for predicting the MAX CN at the end of the year.

You should take into account one thing : a case chargeable to poland is different from a case interviewed in Poland, CEAC data give you number of interview conducted in poland (it could be for people not chargeable to poland),

the link you provide is the official stats and it gives issued VISA by country of changeability.

Rafik is correct. Visas issued at WRW (Warsaw consulate) are not only visas issued for Polish citizens. I believe people from Belarus were interviewed in Warsaw up to 2013. Also there is quite big number of minorities form neighboring countries (east) living in Poland and they would have been interviewed in Warsaw too.

[Sloner 0]

In Warsaw, conduct interviews even Belarus. CEAC shows the data of the embassy.

[szym 2]

If my understanding is correct I believe you are calculating one visa per one case number! If so than its incorrect,because CNs do include hidden family derivatives.

Exemple: if 2014EU01 has 4 family members and his visa is granted than it will count as 4 visas taken out of the 50k visas available...

What data are you using for 2013? Raevsky's one ?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?pli=1&key=0AmbWzexdyvIldEs1d3VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=11

Check again and let us know !

Thanks

My "Case Number per one visa" includes the familly factor.

10857 visas were issued (including familly members) and 25400 case number were interviewed.

25400/10857 = 2,34 case numbe per one visa.

This number includes all holes, refusals and familly factor.

[Sloner 0]

My "Case Number per one visa" includes the familly factor.

10857 visas were issued (including familly members) and 25400 case number were interviewed.

25400/10857 = 2,34 case numbe per one visa.

This number includes all holes, refusals and familly factor.

We need to remove Ukraine and Uzbekistan, after 18000 are not.

[vladek15425 7]

My "Case Number per one visa" includes the familly factor.

10857 visas were issued (including familly members) and 25400 case number were interviewed.

25400/10857 = 2,34 case numbe per one visa.

This number includes all holes, refusals and familly factor.

Excellent!

Remember also that selectees that didn't follow with forms to kcc will not show on the ceac data, so you will have to consider that (estimate).

Please let us know asap your estimations

[rafikbo76 2]

Sloner is downgrading to 1.0

Vladek any idea about what he said?

[vladek15425 7]

Sloner is downgrading to 1.0

Vladek any idea about what he said?

Lol he says that ukraine and uzbakistan will max-out at 18k !

[franko 2]

Lol he says that ukraine and uzbakistan will max-out at 18k !

Yes. Uzbekistan is under special cutoff and Ukraine shall max out but then again Sloner also is saying that the fraud rate in Ukraine is super high.

Edited May 7, 2014 by franko

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

One more thing: I was looking at this data: http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

and I think there is a mistake for Poland in DV2013. It is showing 752 visas issued for Poland in DV2013, but CEAC data is showing 1352 visas issued. Which data is correct?

You should take into account one thing : a case chargeable to poland is different from a case interviewed in Poland, CEAC data give you number of interview conducted in poland (it could be for people not chargeable to poland),

the link you provide is the official stats and it gives issued VISA by country of changeability.

Rafik is correct. Visas issued at WRW (Warsaw consulate) are not only visas issued for Polish citizens. I believe people from Belarus were interviewed in Warsaw up to 2013. Also there is quite big number of minorities form neighboring countries (east) living in Poland and they would have been interviewed in Warsaw too.

Agree with the above, also something to bear in mind if you are looking at certain other countries for example: Ankara interviews most Iranian applicants, Nairobi interviews Tanzanians and Ugandans too, Cairo also interviews Sudanese.

The flip side is obviously also the case i.e. some visas chargeable to Poland will have been interviewed in other countries or done AOS.

[franko 2]

EU36300 Started a new thread on that!

Edited May 7, 2014 by franko

[franko 2]

The flip side is obviously also the case i.e. some visas chargeable to Poland will have been interviewed in other countries or done AOS.

Agree. Quite few in the UK and Germany.

[rafikbo76 2]

EU36300 Started a new thread on that!

is this a prediction franko?

[franko 2]

is this a prediction franko?

Actuals.