F2A Category Likely to Retrogress to 2012

[DanDaniel 0]

@ DanDaniel - i think you can assume that we are all monitoring VB. That's a given!

However, it was Charles Oppenheim who said that F2A would retrogress to 2012 for ROW...so that's not just casual speculation!! All his insights over the past year have been accurate because he should know - afterall he does head the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the state Dept.

i would still like to understand how F2A category can retrogress to 2012.

Sbai2000...i agree with you...How F2A category can retrogress to 2012 while they make current for F2A last year August and Sep 2013??

[Niraj 4]

My PD is 04/16/2012, I don't understand what about me?

You are safe don't worry. It will retrogress to around June/July 2012 not beyond that. But I wonder, why didn't you get your visa still ?

[Niraj 4]

that doesnt make any sense and here is my reason why......this category (F2A) was made current back in the summer of 2013 and therefore the NVC has been catching to meet all the filers up to that date. The visa bulletin has been showing sep 2013 as the priority date because thats when they were all out of visa numbers and the backlog started again,,,,,so if all priority dates are current before sep 2013 how can they retrogress to 2012 ?

Hey,guys,let's be optimistic here,even if the bulletin is retrogressed to 2012,how many of 2012 filers have left?I don' t think that a lot,most of them got their visas hopefully)))so the bulletin will start to move farward with a new fiscal year,hope and pray.I wish good luck to all of you!!!

yah... but why need to retrogress for more than a year, thats too much.. if thats the case,really .need to wait for oct ...

I dont believe it will retrogress as far as 2012 cause if yes why they have to wait july and not retrogress together with mexico?

I'm with bobototokoko,.......I still don't understand how F2A can retrogress all the way back to 2012.

My understanding was that part of the reason the category became current in August 2013 was because there was a low demand. That means all the "low demand" numbers from 2012 should have been processed before august 2013 when the category became "current". Its the new applications with PD from 2013 that I would think would run out of visas number due to high demand????

the only way that we have to go back to 2012 is if there are applicants from 2012 who have sat on their applications and have not completed the nvc stage? Is that possible? is there not a time period within which you must address your noa2???

Am I missing the obvious?

According to me root cause for retrogression is USCIS working slower (approving less petitions), than it should. So NVC always have lots of visa numbers available. And also meanwhile many petitioners leave the hope for visa or get divorced or due to death or beneficiaries living abroad don't appear for the interviews. So more visa numbers are wasted combined (NVC+Consulate).

To avoid the above situation,

1. From data from NVC, they made the family based category to current in AUG2013, hence more people can fill in the wasted visa numbers.

2. Pressured USCIS to work faster, to approve more petitions.

As a result, USCIS started working faster and their approval ratio was higher to processing ratio of NVC. Within these last 6 months the family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000 started getting exhausted. We may assume that around 200,000 visas may be already approved. So now they have to decide till which date we have approved petitions from USCIS which can fill rest 26,000 visa. Lets assume that statistically they find that if NVC takes up 35000 cases in hand, they can fill rest 26000 visa number. So now Visa-Bulletin officer has to see till which date we have 35000 petitioners, and that may end up to some date of 2012.

Having said this, I firmly believe that many cases from 2012 may have become inactive due to various reasons such as divorce, change of decisions etc. So I presume that retrogression is not going to for long (1 or 2 months) and then move forward very quickly.

And if we see on the other side of coin, retrogression strategy is also applied to fear future applicants and restrict them for marrying for GC reasons; as a result demand is lowered for the future too.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Niraj

[sbai2000 31]

@ NIraj - i like your analysis but I'm not sure that the root cause for the ROW retrogression is USCIS working slowly. My reasoning is this: VB was current last summer which means it went through the 2012 dates. That alone would have triggered USCIS to ramp up its approval of whatever 2012 applications it still had.

So would you agree that the retrogression was more likely due to some 2012 filers who were approved but, for whatever reason, delayed in paying their NVC fees? so their i-130 just sat out there for even up to a year doing nothing? maybe there was no urgency in getting a visa, maybe plans changed, maybe they could not pay the NVC fees....who knows....but for whatever reason these 2012 filers only paid their NVC fees in 2013 and 2014.

As I understand it, the VB numbers/dates are based on the number of NVC fees actually paid and so this is the only way I can understand a 2012 retrogression after F2A was current in the summer 2013.

[Leyla&Nodir 11]

There are not only 2012 filers left, but also from 2011.

[sbai2000 31]

cant be....then it would retrogress to a 2011 date?

Edited May 6, 2014 by sbai2000

[Leyla&Nodir 11]

not necessarily, 2011 f2a's are getting interviews, but 2012-2013, not yet

[Leyla&Nodir 11]

i mean interview dates for june, 2011 filers are getting, but we are not, probably waiting for vb to be released

[sbai2000 31]

wow....

[vkrishn 97]

According to me root cause for retrogression is USCIS working slower (approving less petitions), than it should. So NVC always have lots of visa numbers available. And also meanwhile many petitioners leave the hope for visa or get divorced or due to death or beneficiaries living abroad don't appear for the interviews. So more visa numbers are wasted combined (NVC+Consulate).

To avoid the above situation,

1. From data from NVC, they made the family based category to current in AUG2013, hence more people can fill in the wasted visa numbers.

2. Pressured USCIS to work faster, to approve more petitions.

As a result, USCIS started working faster and their approval ratio was higher to processing ratio of NVC. Within these last 6 months the family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000 started getting exhausted. We may assume that around 200,000 visas may be already approved. So now they have to decide till which date we have approved petitions from USCIS which can fill rest 26,000 visa. Lets assume that statistically they find that if NVC takes up 35000 cases in hand, they can fill rest 26000 visa number. So now Visa-Bulletin officer has to see till which date we have 35000 petitioners, and that may end up to some date of 2012.

Having said this, I firmly believe that many cases from 2012 may have become inactive due to various reasons such as divorce, change of decisions etc. So I presume that retrogression is not going to for long (1 or 2 months) and then move forward very quickly.

And if we see on the other side of coin, retrogression strategy is also applied to fear future applicants and restrict them for marrying for GC reasons; as a result demand is lowered for the future too.

226K is for all family sponsored combined and not for F2A alone. There is a 7% per country limitation out of what is allotted for F2A alone and don't forget 10000 visas were given to EB category last yr as well even when FB categories were retrogressed. Unless you have the demand data for F2A until say March 2014 its impossible to predict the amount of visas available based on per country limitations.

[Leyla&Nodir 11]

uff, cant they release vb in the 1st dates of the month...

[Leyla&Nodir 11]

if last year, in august, i were told that i had to wait 2 yrs to get a visa, i would just wait for it. But now, when my case complete, and i am waiting for the interview, they come up with this retro, now i am not ready to wait 1 more year

[Mahadi 0]

You are safe don't worry. It will retrogress to around June/July 2012 not beyond that. But I wonder, why didn't you get your visa still ?

Thanks for your reply my friend,

There are some reasons for delay. I gonna share with you, but I saw some 2011 applicant of f2a are same stage.

1. My case was transferred from Vermont SC to TSC

2. I got RFE USCIS stage

3. After approval, my case took 87 days to be shipped. and 15 days to be received by NVC.

4. I got checklist for some typing error of Affidavit of support.

5 And in every step My petition took maximum time to review/complete.....

may be in final step it will take the maximum time as well......

so what can I do? only waiting.............

[clairefally 0]

June Visa Bulletin is out - F2a has retrogressed back to 1st May 2012.

[Luis Leon 4]

Do not blame to 2011 or 2012 fillers....

My short path....

PD NOV112011

NOA2 AGO 16 2013

I had to send 3 times letters to ask them why the delays. In that period the sent my file to a local office. I guess was somewhere on Nebraska, after that my file was returned to the main center. the that center was closed some weeks by a broken pipe that damaged hundreds of files by the water. All those excuses was give to me at the call center.

Then 5 month my papers were lost between USCIS and NVC until my wife's file was found on Dec 2013 but not her son's file until FEB2013.

Then I try to expedite all and be proactive but they delays everything. Up to now my case has an interview on JUN11 2013 and the status at ceac still says AT NVC

Histories like mine are a lot, please do not blame us so easily. I really hope this path won't apply to you.

The worst part here was the expectation that USCIS gave to you to approve so fast your I-130.

At last my inicial calculations become real, when I filed I expected to have my family reunite by now.

God bless you all, keep fighting and do not lose hope.