Gen. Petraeus: The United States is not in decline. It’s on the cusp of a great revival.

[mota bhai 2,675]

By MICHAEL O'HANLON and DAVID H. PETRAEUS
April 27, 2014

It is important that Americans and Asians understand very clearly that the United States is not in decline. The United States is actually on the threshold of great opportunities, and North America is poised for several decades of leading the world.

The evidence is all around us. The U.S. economy is reviving, strengthened enormously by the ongoing energy and information technology revolutions, as well as the nascent manufacturing and life sciences revolutions. Twenty years into implementation of the North American Free Trade Act, the United States is part of a highly integrated North American market with Canada and Mexico—now our top two trading partners—as well as countries that share common values, a commitment to pluralistic democracy and an embrace of free-market economics. All of this should provide a sense of renewed confidence in a part of the world supposedly suffering from decline.

...

It is worth focusing on some key facts that should make us even more hopeful for the future than we were a year ago:

A shrinking deficit: The federal budget deficit is expected to be down to about $500 billion this year and to remain around that level through much of the decade. This is still too high, to be sure, and within a decade the figure is expected to again top a trillion dollars annually, as it did in the years immediately after the onset of the Great Recession. But the deficit is currently down to a manageable 3 percent of GDP, and the national debt is now declining modestly relative to the size of the economy.

...

Still besting China: After a couple years of decline, America’s standing in international competitiveness according to the World Economic Forum has stabilized in fifth place, with only Germany (a strong U.S. ally, despite the Snowden revelations) ahead of us among the world’s major economies. And China, for all its strengths and promise, has stopped ascending on the list for the moment, stuck at 29. No one wishes China ill, but it is probably preferable for American strategy that China’s geostrategic ascent slow somewhat.

...

The energy boom: ... The United States leads the world in natural gas and, by some estimates, could surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia even in the former later in this decade. The comparative advantage the U.S. enjoys in any industry that requires natural gas as a raw material or cheap gas-produced electricity is, for the near-term at the least, now insurmountable.

The manufacturing rebound: American manufacturing ... has stabilized and in fact ticked up slightly in the last couple years. We are now in a clear No. 2 position behind China ... there is considerable reason to think that the North American energy revolution will continue to “bring jobs home”.

...

The innovation edge: America continues to lead the world unambiguously in overall spending on research and development, on new patents, on the quality of its higher-education system, and in computer, aerospace and pharmaceutical innovation. And despite the logjam on immigration reform, its continued reputation as a melting pot and its modest but positive population growth rate give it easily the best demographic profile and trajectory of any major power on Earth.

Put all this together, and a few important conclusions emerge.

First, we need not panic about today’s deficit but we still need reform on entitlements and tax policy—with each political party compromising more than it currently would like on sacred political cows—so that the situation remains acceptable come 2020 and beyond.

...
Second ... we need a sounder budget deal for the short term since sequestration is due to return in 2016 (and in fact, the deal’s budget levels in 2015 for defense, and for domestic discretionary accounts that fund infrastructure development and science research and development and education, are already too low).

Third, we need immigration reform to keep our workforce dynamic, and if a big deal proves elusive in the short term, smaller deals on issues like increasing quotas for H1-B visas are long overdue.

Fourth, education reform at home... needs to continue, with experimentation in various ways as we seek to improve our international competitiveness, with a particular eye on science and math.

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Fifth ... we need to get moving on energy, notably by allowing and encouraging the export of American natural gas to economic partners in Europe and Asia.

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Sixth and finally... we need to avoid talking ourselves down. More than a decade of harsh partisanship in Washington, D.C., and profound anxiety across the country over our national future ... have taken their toll. But we are doing much better than the common wisdom often holds, and that should help us face everyone from Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Khamenei to an increasingly assertive China with confidence and rational optimism, not gloom and doom.

Michael O’Hanlon is senior fellow at Brookings and coauthor with James Steinberg of the new book Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century.

David H. Petraeus, General, U.S. Army (Ret.) is chairman of the KKR Global Institute, visiting professor at CUNY’s Macaulay Honors College, Judge Widney professor at USC, senior fellow at Harvard, and co-chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on North America

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/04/the-great-american-comeback-106060.html#.U1-w3fldWc0

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Wait, what is he saying? That Obama hasn't destroyed America? What kind of a commie is that General?

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

A delusional one. Uncle Humpty-Dumpty is not happy,

[JohnR! 5,495]

Wait, what is he saying? That Obama hasn't destroyed America? What kind of a commie is that General?

This general is out of his mind. Wait until the Putin lovers get a load of this.. They will set him straight alright..

[GandD 5,966]

A delusional one. Uncle Humpty-Dumpty is not happy,

You're a gloom and doom kinda guy.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

You're a gloom and doom kinda guy.

When I read some of his posts, I wonder if I ever want to get old.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

You're a gloom and doom kinda guy.

More of a pessimist. I love to be pleasantly surprised.

When I read some of his posts, I wonder if I ever want to get old.

Don't get old. It sucks, then you die.

[JohnR! 5,495]

When I read some of his posts, I wonder if I ever want to get old.

History is littered with those who bet against America. They all lost.

[GandD 5,966]

When I read some of his posts, I wonder if I ever want to get old.

No joke

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

History is littered with those who bet against America. They all lost.

The investments I have made that have consistently paid off since 2008, were the plays outside the US, as hedges against the US economy failing, and guess what -- they are still paying off better. Too bad I didn't have even less confidence in the US economy, or my retirement account would really be sitting pretty.

[JohnR! 5,495]

The investments I have made that have consistently paid off since 2008, were the plays outside the US, as hedges against the US economy failing, and guess what -- they are still paying off better. Too bad I didn't have even less confidence in the US economy, or my retirement account would really be sitting pretty.

You should have invested in the stock market. At one point the DJI was down to 6,500 and it has kicked back to 16,000. You could have bought Ford stock for $3.50, Apple for less than $300 and many other stocks at bargain price. I am glad you are happy with the investments you made even though I doubt any got close to a similar return, but again, to each his own. In many ways the economy of the world goes where the US economy goes. We still have that much grip. We ARE the golden-egg laying goose.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Gegel

[Robby999 1,024]

Yes, many, many small business owners are waiting until the Function Brothers ( Non & Mal ) leave the White House. Once the business community has a better idea of what coming down the pike they may decide to spend some of the money they have been sitting on for the last few years.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Robby999

[JohnR! 5,495]

Yes, many, many small business owners are waiting until the Function Brothers ( Non & Mal ) leave the White House. Once the business community has a better idea of what coming down the pike they may decide to spend some of the money they have been sitting on for the last few years.

Great for the rest of us who, in the meanwhile, are raking the opportunities they are missing, by sitting on their money... Their money. Their choice. They cant blame the government for their choices...