Why a Regional Security Force Will Not Work in Afghanistan

[mota bhai 2,675]

By Arwin Rahi

April 20, 2014

As NATO-led coalition forces prepare to withdraw from Afghanistan, we are increasingly hearing the idea that a multinational regional security force (MN-RSF) would be a viable option for Afghanistan. The reality on the ground, however, suggests otherwise.

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To begin with, China is unlikely to change its policy of non-intervention anytime soon.

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Next, the deployment of troops to Afghanistan by Pakistan and Iran would be highly sensitive, even if it were made within the framework of an MN-RSC ... At the Bonn Conference in 2001, Iran and Pakistan’s names were kept off the table when the idea of a U.N.-led multinational security force was discussed.

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In fact, the logic behind the endorsement of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) by Afghanistan’s Loya Jirga was curbing Iranian and Pakistani influence in Afghanistan.

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India, meanwhile, is not interested in getting involved on the battlefields of Afghanistan. Any Indian involvement would provoke Pakistan ... Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has already bombed the Indian Embassy in Kabul in response to India’s growing presence in Afghanistan.

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An MN-RSF involving the five Central Asian countries (CAR) seems very unlikely for several reasons ... The CAR themselves have faced threats of extremism since the fall of the Soviet Union ... Second, a significant element of the military in today’s CAR fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Neither commanders nor politicians in these countries want to repeat the experience.

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The ethnic component of CAR troops could also be unwelcome in Afghanistan. For instance, Tajik troops may be viewed as having been deployed to help their fellow Tajiks in Afghanistan. The same could be true for Uzbek and Turkmen soldiers. These forces would be met by a much fiercer response from the Pashtun-dominated Taliban.

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Other countries in the region that could conceivably contribute troops are the Muslim countries from the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Egypt, for instance. Yet these countries are very unlikely to join any MN-RSF in Afghanistan because their public sympathizes with the Afghan insurgents.

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With the infeasibility of an MN-RSF, Afghanistan should ink the BSA with the U.S. with haste sufficient to allow the U.S. to maintain a presence beyond the end of this year. In addition to training and supporting the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), U.S. troops would also boost morale, enabling the ANSF to independently carry out combat operations.

On April 5—Election Day—the ANSF showed that they had the ability to maintain stability. Nonetheless, their capabilities still need to be strengthened further.

Arwin Rahi is a Fulbright fellow at Texas A&M University’s George Bush School of Government and Public Service. He was an adviser to the Parwan Governor from 2012 to 2013.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/why-a-regional-security-force-will-not-work-in-afghanistan/