Visa Bulletin's Prediction

[shadowflex 8]

Hi All,

Judging by the past predictions made over the fiscal years by the visa bulletin itself, i have found out the predictions are actually reliable and viable for at least the 3 following months after that particular prediction. So for instance, the March visa bulletin predicted that "no FORWARD movement is expected" for F2A category, that means in April, May and June the PD will not move forward (but MAY go BACKWARD) for F2A category. By June another Prediction will likely come out which would hold for July,August and September.

However, I like to also think that if there is a more likely retrogression between April and June, the visa bulletin would have stated it instead of the "no forward movement" hypothesis. This again is based on the past bulletin predictions.

Disclaimer: This is just a deduction I made by juxtaposing past bulletins and may not be accurate. Please feel free to pick the loopholes in it.

[vkrishn 97]

In my view its not a prediction per se since it was indicated by the DOS in their VB and seems to be doing consistently in their VB. They have the demand data and all the numbers to crunch. If we had the demand data minus some other variability we could make the "prediction" ourselves. But.. :-)

DOS already stated that come this June/July VB can retrogress for all countries for F2A.

Just my theory: I believe August/Sep of every year is when things move or can get clearer and that is when we are close to the new quota that will be released in Oct. I still can't get my head to figure out on how the hell did DOS give 10000 visas from FB category to EB category when every freaking FB category is retrogressed. That does not make any sense and this itself says there is absolutely no transparency or accountability on the allocation of numbers.

[SavingCavemen 1]

Well, the retrogression hit us hard since we're from Mexico. It's so frustrating because our PD is just one month ahead of the where the cutoff date is right now so our AOS case never got to the actual interview. I don' expect any movement soon. I'm thinking things will start moving again on Sept. when the fiscal year is over. At least I have my EAD and AP.

I hope the next retrogression for all countries on June/July doesn't affect anyone else on the same boat.

[vkrishn 97]

Well, the retrogression hit us hard since we're from Mexico. It's so frustrating because our PD is just one month ahead of the where the cutoff date is right now so our AOS case never got to the actual interview. I don' expect any movement soon. I'm thinking things will start moving again on Sept. when the fiscal year is over. At least I have my EAD and AP.

I hope the next retrogression for all countries on June/July doesn't affect anyone else on the same boat.

That's interesting because a friend of mine with a PD of Sep 11th, 2013 had her AOS interview in Jan 2014. IO told her that processing is complete and waiting for her PD to be current to approve her I485.

Goodluck with your case and hope PD moves forward soon.

[SavingCavemen 1]

Yeah, our lawyer mentioned that in some local offices they continue to schedule interviews and then they just hold on for the decision. The Houston office apparently, doesn't. I think we'll just have to wait until the visa bulletin moves forward.

The only good thing about this is that our second anniversary is happening this month so we are in the clear for the 10 year green card without going thorough the removal of conditions process. That's money in the pocket.

[shadowflex 8]

In my view its not a prediction per se since it was indicated by the DOS in their VB and seems to be doing consistently in their VB. They have the demand data and all the numbers to crunch. If we had the demand data minus some other variability we could make the "prediction" ourselves. But.. :-)

DOS already stated that come this June/July VB can retrogress for all countries for F2A.

Just my theory: I believe August/Sep of every year is when things move or can get clearer and that is when we are close to the new quota that will be released in Oct. I still can't get my head to figure out on how the hell did DOS give 10000 visas from FB category to EB category when every freaking FB category is retrogressed. That does not make any sense and this itself says there is absolutely no transparency or accountability on the allocation of numbers.

W.r.t the red above, i can't lay my hands on the DOS statement for the retrogression. However it is a possibility and no one knows how far back it could go.

[vkrishn 97]

Here you go. I should have said AILA heard it from DOS. They quoted last quarter but i would expect it sooner.

http://bls-immigration.com/2013/12/department-of-state-warns-of-retrogression-for-f2a-cutoff-dates/

http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/?p=8228

Edited March 11, 2014 by vkrishn

[shadowflex 8]

Wow! Not Good! I feel like the unluckiest person alive judging by my 09-09-2013 PD . Perhaps we should just forget 2014 and focus on 2015.

[vkrishn 97]

I hope they don't retrogress in last quarter or even if they do i hope it won't be a big jump. With new visas coming in Oct i hope they don't move it that back. Damn! i wish DOS is held accountable for all their actions or at least give us the demand data to predict the movement. i guess they have job security at least as long VB is around.

[Mrs.B 0]

Wow! Not Good! I feel like the unluckiest person alive judging by my 09-09-2013 PD . Perhaps we should just forget 2014 and focus on 2015.

Same here. We will forget 2014 and focus on 2015. Unless my hubby will get his citizenship on july so he could upgrade his petition on me. I wish new immigration reform bill will be approved soon. Cross finger.

Wow! Not Good! I feel like the unluckiest person alive judging by my 09-09-2013 PD . Perhaps we should just forget 2014 and focus on 2015.

Same here. We will forget 2014 and focus on 2015. Unless my hubby will get his citizenship on july so he could upgrade his petition on me. I wish new immigration reform bill will be approved soon. Cross finger.

[COLOSSUS 7]

WOW!!! its like cold water on my face on freaking cold winter morning. RETROGRESSING AGAIN

Well, aint giving up yet......fingers crossed

praying!!!

[shadowflex 8]

Yea COLLOSUS don't give up yet. Anything can still happen. For instance Mrs. B above mentioned that her husband will get citizenship by july which means she will automatically leave the F2A visa queue, voila!!!, that's an extra visa number to play around with. Imagine if there are many more people like Mrs. B, means there will be more available visa numbers for F2A category and this might actually save us from retrogression.

I like to be positive even if it has negative written all over it!

[chanhphamvn 5]

i like what u says

my PD NOV 11 2013 sent direct to NSC

So how long u think my case will approval

thanks

[sbai2000 31]

shadowflex - I love reading your posts!

i'm sure you must be one of the most positive people on VJ I am definitely praying for you get your GC soon!!

[SL4ever 3]

Hi

To. Shadowflex I like your post very much,

And my question is my husband completing 5 years on May 21, 2014 and he's now eligible to apply citizenship and he has already fill up the N 400 and he will be posting the documents coming Saturday...can anyone tell me how long it will take to prose his naturalization through citizenship.

Thank you.