Here's What Is Going to Happen With Ukraine

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

... if you do want to fret about Ukraine, I have just the thing for you. I'm going to tell you how this will all unfold:

1. Vladimir Putin will do something belligerent. (Already done.)
2. Republicans will demand that we show strength in the face of Putin's provocation. Whatever it is that we're doing, we should do more.
3. President Obama will denounce whatever it is that Putin does. But regardless of how unequivocal his condemnation is, Bill Kristol will insist that he's failing to support the democratic aspirations of the Ukrainian people.
4. Journalists will write a variety of thumbsuckers pointing out that our options are extremely limited, what with Ukraine being 5,000 miles away and all.
5. John McCain will appear on a bunch of Sunday chat shows to bemoan the fact that Obama is weak and no one fears America anymore.
6. Having written all the "options are limited" thumbsuckers, journalists and columnists will follow McCain's lead and start declaring that the crisis in Ukraine is the greatest foreign policy test of Obama's presidency. It will thus supplant Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iran, and North Korea for this honor.
7. In spite of all the trees felled and words spoken about this, nobody will have any good ideas about what kind of action might actually make a difference. There will be scattered calls to impose a few sanctions here and there, introduce a ban on Russian vodka imports, convene NATO, demand a UN Security Council vote, etc. None of this will have any material effect.
8. Obama will continue to denounce Putin. Perhaps he will convene NATO. For their part, Republicans will continue to insist that he's showing weakness and needs to get serious.
9. This will all continue for a while.
10. In the end, it will all settle down into a stalemate, with Russia having thrown its weight around in its near abroad—just like it always has—and the West not having the leverage to do much about it.
11. Ukraine will....

Actually, there's no telling about #11. Maybe Ukraine will choose (or have foisted on them) a pro-Russian leader that Putin is happy with. Maybe east and west will split apart. Maybe a nominally pro-Western leader will emerge. Who knows? What we do know is that (a) the United States will play only a modest role in all this, and (b) conservative hawks will continue to think that if only we'd done just a little bit more, Putin would have blinked and Ukraine would be free.

You may now go about your regular weekend business.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/03/wee-prediction-about-ukraine

Edited March 4, 2014 by Porterhouse

[LibCampFireClub 635]

Your crystal ball snapshot is relatively predictable. What leaves me wondering is where is Europe on this? Where is the EU? It's time for these hand-wringers to stand up isn't it? Have to give Putin an "A" for anticipating this, and the liberals an "F" for not.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Russia wins. Europe loses. Obama and the US do nothing. Oil prices spike. Still Obama does nothing. Obama doing nothing is better than when Obama tries to do something.

Meh.

[luckytxn 2,264]

Agree. He needs to keep his mouth shut though. He proves himself a fool when he speaks.

Russia wins. Europe loses. Obama and the US do nothing. Oil prices spike. Still Obama does nothing. Obama doing nothing is better than when Obama tries to do something.

Meh.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Agree. He needs to keep his mouth shut though. He proves himself a fool when he speaks.

And who it this UN Ambassador Samantha Power we have? Did you watch her yesterday? She makes it look like all the US can do is whine, and whining is not the sort of reputation a serious superpower wants to acquire.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

And who it this UN Ambassador Samantha Power we have? Did you watch her yesterday? She makes it look like all the US can do is whine, and whining is not the sort of reputation a serious superpower wants to acquire.

Then I would suggest that the right stops whining all the time. It's all they've done for 6 years now. You might want to consider discontinuing the practice, too.

[luckytxn 2,264]

She is another weak inept Obama supplicant who is pretty much a nothing. It is amazing how ridiculous the U.S. looks like to the rest of the world right now. Smh.

And who it this UN Ambassador Samantha Power we have? Did you watch her yesterday? She makes it look like all the US can do is whine, and whining is not the sort of reputation a serious superpower wants to acquire.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Then I would suggest that the right stops whining all the time. It's all they've done for 6 years now. You might want to consider discontinuing the practice, too.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/03/samantha-power-address-to-united-nations-on-ukraine/

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/03/samantha-power-address-to-united-nations-on-ukraine/

And what's wrong with those remarks? Not enough saber rattling?

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

And what's wrong with those remarks? Not enough saber rattling?

Treating Russia like a belligerent school yard bully is not going to go well.

[Operator 1,927]

Obama wants to send in the "International Monitors"

Oh Goody!

Edited March 4, 2014 by Operator

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Treating Russia like a belligerent school yard bully is not going to go well.

Perhaps if Russia doesn't want to be treated like a belligerent schoolyard bully it should discontinue behaving like one?

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Perhaps if Russia doesn't want to be treated like a belligerent schoolyard bully it should discontinue behaving like one?

The Russia has europe by the balls. Show some respect, or suffer the consequences.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

The Russia has europe by the balls. Show some respect, or suffer the consequences.

The Russia needs Europe no less than Europe needs The Russia. Everyone knows that.

[Crashed~N2~Me 970]

The Russia needs Europe no less than Europe needs The Russia. Everyone knows that.

Putin's response to The Ukraine events - indicates he has an inferiority complex.