4 Reasons Putin Is Already Losing in Ukraine

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Sorry for trampling on the man-crushes so many here have on Putin.

4 Reasons Putin Is Already Losing in Ukraine

As Russia's Ukraine power play reaches boiling point in Crimea, there are clear signs a Russian invasion may be a disaster for its architect, President Vladimir Putin

Even a week ago, the idea of a Russian military intervention in Ukraine seemed farfetched if not totally alarmist. The risks involved were just too enormous for President Vladimir Putin and for the country he has ruled for 14 years. But the arrival of Russian troops in Crimea over the weekend has shown that he is not averse to reckless adventures, even ones that offer little gain. In the coming days and weeks, Putin will have to decide how far he is prepared to take this intervention and how much he is prepared to suffer for it. It is already clear, however, that he cannot emerge as the winner of this conflict, at least not when the damage is weighed against the gains. It will at best be a Pyrrhic victory, and at worst an utter catastrophe. Here’s why:

At home, this intervention looks to be the one of the most unpopular decisions Putin has ever made. The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question posed in early February to 1600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes – hardly a national consensus.

That seems astounding in light of all the brainwashing Russians have faced on the issue of Ukraine. For weeks, the Kremlin’s effective monopoly on television news has been sounding the alarm over Ukraine. Its revolution, they claimed, is the result of an American alliance with Nazis intended to weaken Russia. And still, nearly three quarters of the population oppose a Russian “reaction” of any kind, let alone a Russian military occupation like they are now watching unfold in Crimea. The 2008 invasion of Georgia had much broader support, because Georgia is not Ukraine. Ukraine is a nation of Slavs with deep cultural and historical ties to Russia. Most Russians have at least some family or friends living in Ukraine, and the idea of a fratricidal war between the two largest Slavic nations in the world evokes a kind of horror that no Kremlin whitewash can calm.

Indeed, Monday’s survey suggests that the influence of Putin’s television channels is breaking down. The blatant misinformation and demagoguery on Russian television coverage of Ukraine seems to have pushed Russians to go online for their information. And as for those who still have no Internet connection, they could simply have picked up the phone and called their panicked friends and relatives in Ukraine.

So what about Russia’s nationalists? The war-drum thumping Liberal Democratic party, a right-wing puppet of the Kremlin, has been screaming for Russia to send in the tanks. On Feb. 28, as troops began appearing on the streets of Crimea, the leader of that party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, was on the scene handing out wads of cash to a cheering crowd of locals in the city of Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. “Give it to the women, the old maids, the pregnant, the lonely, the divorced,” he told the crowd from atop a chair. “Russia is rich. We’ll give everybody everything.” But in Monday’s survey, 82% of his party’s loyalists rejected any such generosity. Even the adherents of the Communist Party, who tend to feel entitled to all of Russia’s former Soviet domains, said with a broad majority – 62% – that Russia should not jump into Ukraine’s internal crisis.

That does not necessarily mean Putin will face an uprising at home. So far, the anti-war protests in Moscow have looked almost pathetically temperate. But sociologists have been saying for years that Putin’s core electorate is dwindling. What underpins his popularity – roughly 60% approved of his rule before this crisis started – is a total lack of viable alternatives to Putin’s rule. But this decision is sure to eat away at the passive mass of his supporters, especially in Russia’s biggest cities.

In Monday’s survey, 30% of respondents from Moscow and St. Petersburg said that Russia could see massive political protests of the kind that overthrew the Ukrainian government last month. Putin’s only means of forestalling that kind of unrest is to crack down hard and early. So on Feb. 28, Russia’s most prominent opposition activist Alexei Navalny was put under house arrest less than six months after he won 30% of the vote in the Moscow mayoral race. Expect more of the same if the opposition to Putin’s intervention starts to find its voice.

The economic impact on Russia is already staggering. When markets opened on Monday morning, investors got their first chance to react to the Russian intervention in Ukraine over the weekend, and as a result, the key Russian stock indexes tanked by more than 10%. That amounts to almost $60 billion in stock value wiped out in the course of a day, more than Russia spent preparing for last month’s Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. The state-controlled natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Russian tax revenues, lost $15 billion in market value in one day – incidentally the same amount of money Russia promised to the teetering regime in Ukraine in December and then revoked in January as the revolution took hold.

The value of the Russian currency meanwhile dropped against the dollar to its lowest point on record, and the Russian central bank spent $10 billion on the foreign exchange markets trying to prop it up. “This has to fundamentally change the way investors and ratings agencies view Russia,” said Timothy Ash, head of emerging market research at Standard Bank. At a time when Russia’s economic growth was already stagnating, “This latest military adventure will increase capital flight, weaken Russian asset prices, slow investment and economic activity and growth. Western financial sanctions on Russia will hurt further,” Ash told the Wall Street Journal.

Even Russia’s closest allies want no part of this. The oil-rich state of Kazakhstan, the most important member of every regional alliance Russia has going in the former Soviet space, put out a damning statement on Monday, marking the first time its leaders have ever turned against Russia on such a major strategic issue: “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.”

What likely worries Russia’s neighbors most is the statement the Kremlin made on March 2, after Putin spoke on the phone with U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. “Vladimir Putin noted that in case of any escalation of violence against the Russian-speaking population of the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea, Russia would not be able to stay away and would resort to whatever measures are necessary in compliance with international law.” This sets a horrifying precedent for all of Russia’s neighbors.

Every single state in the former Soviet Union, from Central Asia to the Baltics, has a large Russian-speaking population, and this statement means that Russia reserves the right to invade when it feels that population is threatened. The natural reaction of any Russian ally in the region would be to seek security guarantees against becoming the next Ukraine. For countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, including Armenia, a staunch Russian ally, that would likely stir desires for a closer alliance with NATO and the European Union. For the countries of Central Asia, Russia’s traditional stomping ground on the geopolitical map of the world, that would mean strengthening ties with nearby China, including military ones.

China, which has long been Russia’s silent partner on all issues of global security from Syria to Iran, has also issued cautious statements regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine. “It is China’s long-standing position not to interfere in others’ internal affairs,” the Foreign Ministry reportedly said in a statement on Sunday. “We respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”

So in the course of one weekend, Putin has spooked all of the countries he wanted to include in his grand Eurasian Union, the bloc of nations he hoped would make Russia a regional power again. The only gung-ho participants in that alliance so far have been Kazakhstan (see above) and Belarus, which is known as Europe’s last dictatorship. Its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has so far remained silent on the Russian intervention in Ukraine. But last week, Belarus recognized the legitimacy of the new revolutionary government in Kiev, marking a major break from Russia, which has condemned Ukraine’s new leaders as extremists and radicals. The Belarusian ambassador in Kiev even congratulated Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister on taking office and said he looks forward to working with him.

As for the impoverished nation of Armenia, a late-comer to Russia’s fledgling Eurasian alliance, it has also recognized the new government in Kiev while stopping short of any official condemnation of Putin’s intervention in Ukraine so far. But on Saturday, prominent politicians led an anti-Putin demonstration in the Armenia capital. “We are not against Russia,” said the country’s former Minister of National Security David Shakhnazaryan. “We are against the imperial policies of Putin and the Kremlin.”

Russia’s isolation from the West will deepen dramatically. In June, Putin was planning to welcome the leaders of the G8, a club of western powers (plus Japan), in the Russian resort city of Sochi. But on Sunday, all of them announced they had halted their preparations for attending the summit in protest at Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. So much for Putin’s hard-fought seat at the table with the leaders of the western world.

In recent years, one of Russia’s greatest points of contention with the West has been over NATO’s plans to build of a missile shield in Europe. Russia has seen this as a major threat to its security, as the shield could wipe out Russia’s ability to launch nuclear missiles at the West. The long-standing nuclear deterrent that has protected Russia from Western attacks for generations – the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction, or MAD – could thus be negated, Russia’s generals have warned. But after Russia decided to unilaterally invade its neighbor to the west this weekend, any remaining resistance to the missile shield project would be pushed aside by the renewed security concerns of various NATO members, primarily those in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Whatever hopes Russia had of forestalling the construction of the missile shield through diplomacy are now most likely lost.

No less worrying for Putin would be the economic sanctions the West is preparing in answer to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. Depending on their intensity, those could cut off the ability of Russian companies and businessmen in getting western loans and trading with most of the world’s largest economies. Putin’s allies could also find it a lot more difficult to send their children to study in the West or to keep their assets in Western banks, as they now almost universally do. All of that raises the risk for Putin of a split in his inner circle and, potentially, even of a palace coup. There is hardly anything more important to Russia’s political elite than the security of their foreign assets, certainly not their loyalty to a leader who seems willing to put all of that at risk.

And what about the upside for Putin? There doesn’t seem to be much of it, at least not compared to the damage he stands to inflict on Russia and himself. But he does look set to accomplish a few things. For one, he demonstrates to the world that his red lines, unlike those of the White House, cannot be crossed.

If Ukraine’s revolutionary government moves ahead with their planned integration into the E.U. and possibly NATO, the military alliance that Russia sees as its main strategic threat would move right up to Russia’s western borders and, in Crimea, it would surround the Russian Black Sea fleet. That is a major red line for Putin and his generals.

By sending troops into Crimea and, potentially, into eastern Ukraine, Russia could secure a buffer around Russia’s strategic naval fleet and at its western border. For the military brass in Moscow, those are vital priorities, and their achievement is worth a great deal of sacrifice. Over the weekend, Putin’s actions showed that he is listening carefully to his generals. At the same time, he seems to be ignoring the outrage coming from pretty much everyone else.

Read more: How Putin's Ukraine Invasion Is a Disaster for Russia | TIME.com http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/putin-ukraine-crimea-russia/#ixzz2uxZ5DzHh

Edited March 4, 2014 by Mr. Big Dog

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Good read. It's not surprising to see what a potential quagmire he's put himself in and the only way for him to save face is to affirm that he put ground troops there to ensure stability as Ukraine prepares for an election. The Ukraine military doesn't seem panicked by their presence. Hopefully the hawkish neocons and armchair generals of the West will relax a bit once they see that Putin is not anxious for this to escalate into any type of disorder.

[Dakine10 5,452]

http://rt.com/op-edge/west-organized-coup-ukraine-ugly-539/

‘No chance of Russia being able to back down on Ukraine’

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Published time: March 03, 2014 09:38

Pro-Russian protesters wave a Russian flag and hold a sign © reading "Our brothers are in Russia, we are slaves in Europe" during a rally in front of the regional administration building in the industrial Ukrainian city of Donetsk on March 1, 2014. (AFP Photo / Alexander Khudoteply)

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The West organized the coup in Ukraine and they can make this very ugly, but there is no chance of Russia being able to back down, Danny Welch, blogger and anti-war activist, told RT.

Russia’s dispatch of a stabilization force in Crimea on official request from local authorities was harshly criticized by US Secretary of State John Kerry over weekend, threatening to isolate Russia economically and politically and warning of potential asset freezes and visa bans.

“You just don’t invade another country on phony pretext in order to assert your interests,” John Kerry said during an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press. “This is an act of aggression that is completely trumped up in terms of its pretext. It’s really 19th-century behavior in the 21st century.”

Welch says, the Kerry’s statement has an obvious weak point.

RT: John Kerry's criticism appeared very harsh. But will Washington follow through with concrete action?

Danny Welch: The harshness of his [Kerry’s] reaction is indicative of the weakness of his position. In the first place it is absolutely surreal for the Secretary of State of the US to state that a country doesn't have a right to invade other countries without a pretext, when right at the moment his own government is involved in up to a dozen countries. And I think the whole world thinks it sounds crazy except for the Western press.

RT: Western countries back Kiev ... are we seeing a self-appointed government receiving international recognition?

DW: I'm not sure that’s international recognition. The Western powers always use a term international community when they mean themselves and a few of their closest friends. I think what remains to be seen is Russia and China - they are the two strongest members of the UN Security Council. They'll obviously withhold recognition. Turkey basically agrees with Russia on the Crimean issue.

The coup is unraveling. The Navy commander defected and swore his leniency to Crimea. It's not a tenable position for anyone involved, I think [the West] will try and they have military muscle, if they really want to start a war they can. [The West] started the coup, they funded the coup, they organized the coup - they can make this very ugly. But there is no chance of Russia being able to back down, so I don't think they can do much.

Pro-Russian activists hold a giant Russian flag near a statue of Lenin as they rally in Simferopol, the administrative center of Crimea, on March 1, 2014. (AFP Photo / Genya Savilov)

RT: Washington and Brussels appear to be ignoring the nationalists and extremists within the Kiev government. Why is that?

DW: Because it's supremely embarrassing. I was in Kiev and in Moscow many years ago, and one of the things that you can see when you’re on the ground there, that you are never taught in American schools, is the overwhelming pride at having defeated the fascists, and having pushed back the Nazis, and at what an incredible sacrifice of tens of millions of people for the Soviet Union and how important that is to the national identity. And now to have these Western powers actually paying fascists, paying neo-Nazis, to seize power in a country on Russia's border is simply too evil and too embarrassing to admit, and so they'll just continue to deny it.

There were also reports that neo-Nazis from all over Europe are descending on Kiev to join the mobs that have been patrolling the city with bats. It's not law, it's not order, it's a lawless coup and it should be scary to anyone who is invested in peace and order.

RT: Many Russians live in Ukraine, especially in Crimea. Does Moscow have the right to protect them in the way it is proposing?

DW: There is no question either under 1994 agreement, under any sense of moral duty, any sense of national pride or simply as a matter of being the power in the region that has power to prevent chaos. There is no question that Russia is within her right to protect these people in this way. Absolutely no question. The only people who can shriek about the international law ironically are the people who have been violating it without cease for at least the last 15 years flagrantly and on view for all the world [to see].

RT: Where will things go from here?

DW: My prediction is that Russia will come out of this better than they went in. Crimea is basically is a de-facto secession already. The Western Ukraine is a basket case, the EU never wanted them. And they are going to scream when austerity comes in and ruins their lives much more than Yanukovich ever could have. It is an absolute disaster for the West, a security disaster for Russia, and there is no way for it to end well except for the eventual peaceful partition of the country.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Dakine10

[Dakine10 5,452]

15:16 GMT:

Rallies in support of Russians living in Ukraine are being held in several Russian cities. Nearly 7,500 people are taking part in a demonstration in the southern city of Rostov. Rallies in the southern cities of Bryansk and Belgorod have attracted over 5,000 people each, local police told Itar-Tass.

On Sunday, the demonstrations to support Russians in Crimea attracted thousands of people in the cities of St. Petersburg, Moscow and Krasnodar.

Participants in a rally under the slogan "We Don't Leave Our People Behind" in Bryansk.(RIA Novosti / Vladimir Gorovyh)

[Crashed~N2~Me 970]

The stakes are high and obvious. Putin had no other choice but secure Russian interests regardless of fallout.

US / EU is getting pretty good at the sponsor protest to invoke violent reaction to justify more violence to remove one and install another coup game.

War is so passé ...Coup is where it's at man. Gotta get inside if you wanna stay hip.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

http://rt.com/op-edge/west-organized-coup-ukraine-ugly-539/

The West organized the coup in Ukraine and they can make this very ugly, but there is no chance of Russia being able to back down, Danny Welch, blogger and anti-war activist, told RT.

Russia’s dispatch of a stabilization force in Crimea on official request from local authorities was harshly criticized by US Secretary of State John Kerry over weekend, threatening to isolate Russia economically and politically and warning of potential asset freezes and visa bans.

That's two incorrect premises to start off the opinion piece. You know what happens when you start with a bad premise and when you start with two of them, it doesn't get any better. But then what would one expect from Putin's propaganda machine? Odd that the Russians can't seem to keep their story straight. They claim to have invaded Ukraine on the request of local authorities and then it was a help request from their ousted and wanted-for-mass-murder puppet Yanukovich. Very familiar. Same playbook as in the 50's and 60's when they murdered freedom seeking people in their occupied territories in eastern Europe. Berlin 1953, Budapest 1956, Prague 1968. Always the same - murder, murder, murder. Brute force and murder - that is all the Soviets ever knew and that will never change.

Russia Says Yanukovych Requested Troops in Crimea

UNITED NATIONS March 4, 2014 (AP)

By EDITH M. LEDERER and PETER JAMES SPIELMANN

Associated Press

Ukraine's fugitive president requested Russian soldiers in the strategic Crimea region "to establish legitimacy, peace, law and order," Russia's U.N. ambassador said Monday, contradicting the president's own comments last week, while Ukraine's ambassador said 16,000 troops are now deployed there.

The disclosure of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych's support for Russian military intervention was made at the third emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council since Friday. It came amid fears that the Kremlin might carry out more land grabs in pro-Russian eastern Ukraine.

Russia faced demands from almost all council members to pull its troops out of Crimea and got no support for its military action from close ally China.

[Dakine10 5,452]

That's two incorrect premises to start off the opinion piece. You know what happens when you start with a bad premise and when you start with two of them, it doesn't get any better. But then what would one expect from Putin's propaganda machine? Odd that the Russians can't seem to keep their story straight. They claim to have invaded Ukraine on the request of local authorities and then it was a help request from their ousted and wanted-for-mass-murder puppet Yanukovich. Very familiar. Same playbook as in the 50's and 60's when they murdered freedom seeking people in their occupied territories in eastern Europe. Berlin 1953, Budapest 1956, Prague 1968. Always the same - murder, murder, murder. Brute force and murder - that is all the Soviets ever knew and that will never change.

Yanukovich requested Russian troops in Ukraine. Yanukovich has no direct involvement in Crimea and he's not going to have any. Russia did present Yanukovich's letter to the UN but they are not going to be sending troops into Ukraine based on Yanukovich's request.

Saying the west organized the coup is disingenuous, but so is saying Putin doesn't have support for military action. He didn't have support for interfering in the Maidan events and he didn't, but he has a broad support for protecting Russian people in Ukraine from the radical elements that are at work there. As far as the west supporting the right wing radicals, thats how Russia see's it. I mean they they did catch Victoria Nuland discussing the 5 billion in financial support with her Ukrainian counterpart as well as suggesting how the next government should be comprised.

We have many friends and relatives in Sevastopol and my wife also has relatives in Kiev. In Crimea everyone is happy and people go about their business as usual. There are hundreds of military types moving around. They wear no isignia and no one my wife talks to believes there are any Russian troops outside of Sevastopol, and these are people who would be happy to see Russian troops. Meanwhile in Kiev, neo-nazis control large areas of the city and people are scared to even go to the grocery store. Rabbi Moshe Azman is advising all Jewish people to leave Kiev and leave Ukraine if possible. Sounds like we put our money on the crazy horse. Again.

Anyhoo, AFAIK Russia hasn't made any claims of invading Ukraine. They still deny having any troops outside of their mandate in Sevastopol. Claims of invasion are from western media. It's kind of naive to think everything coming out of Russia is propaganda and everything in the western media is gold. The Russians have thousand of troops at their base in Sevastopol. If and when they do go into Crimea, they are not going to sneak in.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Yanukovich requested Russian troops in Ukraine. Yanukovich has no direct involvement in Crimea and he's not going to have any. Russia did present Yanukovich's letter to the UN but they are not going to be sending troops into Ukraine based on Yanukovich's request.

Saying the west organized the coup is disingenuous, but so is saying Putin doesn't have support for military action. He didn't have support for interfering in the Maidan events and he didn't, but he has a broad support for protecting Russian people in Ukraine from the radical elements that are at work there. As far as the west supporting the right wing radicals, thats how Russia see's it. I mean they they did catch Victoria Nuland discussing the 5 billion in financial support with her Ukrainian counterpart as well as suggesting how the next government should be comprised.

We have many friends and relatives in Sevastopol and my wife also has relatives in Kiev. In Crimea everyone is happy and people go about their business as usual. There are hundreds of military types moving around. They wear no isignia and no one my wife talks to believes there are any Russian troops outside of Sevastopol, and these are people who would be happy to see Russian troops. Meanwhile in Kiev, neo-nazis control large areas of the city and people are scared to even go to the grocery store. Rabbi Moshe Azman is advising all Jewish people to leave Kiev and leave Ukraine if possible. Sounds like we put our money on the crazy horse. Again.

Anyhoo, AFAIK Russia hasn't made any claims of invading Ukraine. They still deny having any troops outside of their mandate in Sevastopol. Claims of invasion are from western media. It's kind of naive to think everything coming out of Russia is propaganda and everything in the western media is gold. The Russians have thousand of troops at their base in Sevastopol. If and when they do go into Crimea, they are not going to sneak in.

There's no support for military action. There's no legitimacy to his military action against Ukraine. None.

As to the highlighted part, this is exactly what Russia claims to have done. It already happened. How can you say they won't do it?

Edited March 4, 2014 by Mr. Big Dog

[Dakine10 5,452]

There's no support for military action. There's no legitimacy to his military action against Ukraine. None.

The Russian people will support sending troops into Ukraine if violence escalates against Russian people or military bases there. That hasn't happened yet.

IMO, Russia is consolidating it's response in Crimea for any interference before the referendum and doing everything possible to prevent the Kiev protesters from getting into Crimea. If that doesn't happen, they are happy to let the vote take place. On March 26th, Crimea will voluntarily join Russia. Ukraine is helping that process along as a government without a mandate continues to pass anti minority laws.

I'm sure if Russia really wanted to go into Ukraine right now, they could just claim to have found evidence of WMD's in Ukraine. I think historical precedent has been set on that one.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Dakine10

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

The Russian people will support sending troops into Ukraine if violence escalates against Russian people or military bases there. That hasn't happened yet.

Russia is consolidating it's response in Crimea for any interference before the referendum and doing everything possible to prevent those people from getting into Crimea. If that doesn't happen, they are happy to let the vote is allowed to take place. On March 26th, Crimea will voluntarily join Russia. Ukraine is helping that process along as a government without a mandate continues to pass anti minority laws.

I'm sure if Russia really wanted to go into Ukraine right now, they could just claim to have found evidence of WMD's in Ukraine. I think historical precedent has been set on that one.

The Russian people can support whatever they want - who cares? That does not make the invasion any more legitimate. Nobody has attacked any Russian in Ukraine and yet Russia has already illegally invaded that sovereign nation. And they've done so under the phoniest of justifications. Two different and contradicting justifications no less. You're watching Vlad's propaganda channel a little too much. Even there - on Putin's own propaganda channel - an anchor went on camera to criticize Russia for their illegal act of aggression.

[Dakine10 5,452]

The Russian people can support whatever they want - who cares?

You posted the article that said Putin has no support in Russia. That was the initial post you made. I'm not discussing philosophy here. It's a response to what you posted. If push comes to shove, Putin does have support at home.

I don't need Putins channel or CNN or BBC. My father in law lives in Sevastopol. My wife's aunt and cousins live in Kiev. I've been to both cities. I can tell you from the source when Russian troops start moving around in those regions. Propaganda is a powerful thing but it works best on those without perspective. My perspective is fine. It's easy to sort through the propaganda when you know people who are living through it.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Dakine10

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

You posted the article that said Putin has no support in Russia. That was the initial post you made. I'm not discussing philosophy here. It's a response to what you posted. If push comes to shove, Putin does have support at home.

I don't need Putins channel or CNN or BBC. My father in law lives in Sevastopol. My wife's aunt and cousins live in Kiev. I've been to both cities. I can tell you from the source when Russian troops start moving around in those regions. Propaganda is a powerful thing but it works best on those without perspective. My perspective is fine. It's easy to sort through the propaganda when you know people who are living through it.

Oh, I see. That's what you are referring to. So yes, that's on of the many issues that Putin faces - the lack of support at home. At least for now. Even if that changes - and that's a pretty big "if" once Russia and her people suffer the economic consequences of a war in that region should it come to that - he's left with a host of other issues.

[Dakine10 5,452]

http://www.sott.net/article/274998-Former-German-chancellor-Schroeder-EU-facilitates-Ukrainian-conflict-attempts-to-isolate-Russia-wrong

Former German chancellor Schroeder: EU facilitates Ukrainian conflict, attempts to isolate Russia wrong

The European Union "only facilitated the conflict in Ukraine" when it announced that "the Association Agreement is incompatible with the Customs Union agreement between Kiev and Moscow", said former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder in an interview with the radio station Europe-1.

Schroeder also criticized NATO, as "this alliance does not have a political purpose, and its actions do not help to build trust, but on the contrary, create more and more concerns". Measures to solve the Ukrainian crisis "should be solely diplomatic", he stressed.

Schroeder spoke against attempts to isolate Russia, particularly by rejecting to attend the G8 summit in Sochi. "In such critical conditions, any measures that block further discussions are wrong," Schroeder noted.

When asked about whether Germany could take a tougher position on the issue, he emphasized that "boycotts should be used in a way that does not harm your own interests."

As G8 countries announced they had suspended praparations for the group's summit slated to take place in the Russian city of Sochi in June, Martin Sieff, American columnist with the Post Examiner newspaper, told in an interview to the Voice of Russia, why, in his opinion, the move is "a very bad mistake" and how US and Europe contradict their basic principles.

What do you think about Russia and the G8 summit in Sochi? Is it possible that Russia will be out of that?

I think there is a very real possibility of that. I think it would be a very bad mistake. I think it is crucially important for not just Russia but the US and the other G8 members to maintain full dialogue and communications now, it is more important than ever. But I think the attitude in Washington towards events in Ukraine and Crimea are galloping at such a speed and the lack of real dialogue between Washington and Moscow is now so serious that the survival of G8 and Sochi is very much in doubt.

If the US is siding with the people who have seated the power in Ukraine with the help of extremists, doesn't that mean that they are supporting radicalism?

Yes, this is exactly what it means and this is the great contradiction in the American and European position. If this kind of events of violent revolution like this was happening in any western European nation, or ally of the US anywhere in the world or around the western hemisphere, the US reaction and the European reactions would certainly be to support the central government as strongly as possible because Ukraine was not a dictatorship. President Yanukovich was democratically elected, he was still in his first term, he had lost the previous election, previously the Ukrainian presidents were defeated, have stood down, Ukraine had freedom of the press, was peaceful, had independent political parties, Ukraine was free and democratic. There was no justification for a violent toppling of the government.

What can be done right now to eradicate extremism in Ukraine?

The best course of action would be for the US not to demonize Russia but to open up negotiations with Russia about stabilizing Ukraine. Ukraine is deeply divided because of the irresponsibility mainly of European Union policies and also to a significant degree of US policies. What is crucially important is first of all to try and get western aid to keep the economy afloat and secondly to develop a constructive dialogue and participation so that there is a true coalition government for the moment in Kiev because right now it is crucially important that eastern Ukraine and western Ukraine work together well enough to prevent disintegration.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Dakine10

[Dakine10 5,452]

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-us-intelligence-russia-ukraine-20140303,0,4657644.story#axzz2v1pjscNG

CIA reportedly says Russia sees treaty as justifying Ukraine move

[updated, 8 p.m., March 3: WASHINGTON — CIA director John Brennan told a senior lawmaker Monday that a 1997 treaty between Russia and Ukraine allows up to 25,000 Russia troops in the vital Crimea region, so Russia may not consider its recent troop movements to be an invasion, U.S. officials said.

The number of Russian troops that have surged into Ukraine in recent days remains well below that threshold, Brennan said, according to U.S. officials who declined to be named in describing private discussions and declined to name the legislator.

Though Brennan disagrees that the treaty justifies Russia’s incursion, he urged a cautious approach, the officials said. Administration officials have said Moscow violated the treaty, which requires the Russian navy, which bases its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, to coordinate all military movements on the Crimean peninsula with Ukraine.]

The next day, Russian troops took up positions around key facilities in Crimea, and by nightfall the CIA assessed that Russia was in control of the region, officials said.

“This was not predicted,” said a U.S. official, who asked not to be named in discussing the classified briefings.

The intelligence officials defended their analysis, however, saying Putin may have made a spur of the moment decision to take military action.

U.S. intelligence agencies have “provided timely and valuable information that has helped policymakers understand the situation on the ground and make informed decisions,” said Shawn Turner, a spokesman for the director of national intelligence. “That continues to be the case. Any suggestion that there were intelligence shortcomings related to the situation in Ukraine are uninformed and misleading.”

The difficulty in predicting the Russian military moves echoed a similar intelligence gap in August 2008 when Russian troops backed separatist forces in South Ossetia against the republic of Georgia in a five-day war. The CIA was caught off guard at the time, officials said later.

A former CIA case officer, who also declined to be named in discussing sensitive issues, said that the agency’s focus on counter-terrorism over the last 13 years has undermined its ability to conduct traditional espionage against key adversaries, including Russia.

The CIA station in Kiev, Ukraine, “cannot be larger than two or three case officers,” the former official said. “Did they have sources that could have forecast Russian intentions? Almost certainly not.”

Another former senior intelligence officer with experience in the region said the CIA doesn’t have sources that could have forecast Putin’s plans in Crimea. But, he said, it shouldn’t be viewed as an intelligence failure if analysts didn’t anticipate the actions of Russian troops operating out of bases there.

“The presence of Russian troops there is a fait accompli, so nobody is going to be watching what’s happening in those bases,” he said.

A CIA spokesman rebuffed the notion that the agency’s espionage muscles had atrophied.

“Although we do not talk about our specific intelligence efforts, the agency is a versatile global organization that is more than capable of addressing a range of national security threats simultaneously and it does so every day," said spokesman Dean Boyd. "Anyone suggesting otherwise is seriously misinformed.”

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-us-intelligence-russia-ukraine-20140303,0,4657644.story#ixzz2v1q15Vky