Russia in a corner over Ukraine

[mota bhai 2,675]

By Alexander Nekrassov

Alexander Nekrassov is a former Kremlin and government adviser.

What can Russia actually do in response to the change of power in Kiev that Moscow views as a coup organised and supported by the West? Not very much at the moment, apart from saying that the new interim authority does not have proper legitimacy, which it actually doesn't. And also freezing the money that it had agreed to lend to Ukraine last year, as part of the agreement with President Viktor Yanukovich, to offset the deal that he had turned down with the European Union last November in a spectacular fashion which eventually resulted in his downfall. Oh yes, and it could recall its ambassador in Kiev to Moscow, which it did, a move that has been given way too much prominence by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in a press conference.

In fact, President Putin has very little room for manoeuvre, as he had been distracted by the Games in Sochi while the dramatic events in Kiev unfolded. He can't really send Russian troops to Ukraine because that would cause the biggest crisis since the end of the Cold War. It would also make the military conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia in August 2008 look like a minor skirmish.

Any hint of Russian forces amassing on the borders with Ukraine can trigger a civil war in the country and may drag other nations into it. Putin knows that and has to tread very carefully.

But at the same time, the Russian president has to demonstrate to his own people, who are watching the developments in Ukraine with concern and anxiety, that he is doing something to protect national interest there and, even more importantly, demonstrate his readiness to defend ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. And this represents a big dilemma for him.

He obviously has economic and financial leverage on Ukraine, but with the West's newfound readiness to provide Ukraine with serious injections of money, the Kremlin will be finding it difficult to exert serious enough pressure to make a difference in the next month or two.

...

Ukraine splitting into two parts would actually be beneficial to Russia in the long run, as it will get the industrial powerbase that keeps the country going. Western Ukraine without the east will totally depend on the hand-outs of the EU, a prospect Brussels must be dreading.

...

Still, the first and biggest casualty of the dramatic change of power in Ukraine is the EU, with its unsavoury role in encouraging the opposition to push for the downfall of the democratically elected President simply because he didn't sign a deal that was expected of him in Brussels. The way EU leaders and politicians from EU member countries visited Kiev, openly supporting the opposition would raise eyebrows of many people around Europe.

Especially as the deal that had been offered to Ukraine was not a great one. So considering that the EU is not exactly very popular at the moment, having failed to solve the debt crisis and help revive most national economies, the future for the Union is looking bleak, especially if the referendum in Britain in 2017 delivers a "no" to UK's membership in the block.

Worrying times all around when it comes to Ukraine. The hope is that politicians and the media on all sides would not be tempted to use the crisis to achieve their own agendas.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/02/russia-corner-over-ukraine-201422551355256899.html

[We Keep Receipts 9,238]

What's really scary, is I haven't seen Gary in here since this broke. Hope his wife's family is ok.

[Harpa Timsah 13,258]

Putin stronk

[Operator 1,927]

By Alexander Nekrassov

Alexander Nekrassov is a former Kremlin and government adviser.

What can Russia actually do in response to the change of power in Kiev that Moscow views as a coup organised and supported by the West? Not very much at the moment, apart from saying that the new interim authority does not have proper legitimacy, which it actually doesn't. And also freezing the money that it had agreed to lend to Ukraine last year, as part of the agreement with President Viktor Yanukovich, to offset the deal that he had turned down with the European Union last November in a spectacular fashion which eventually resulted in his downfall. Oh yes, and it could recall its ambassador in Kiev to Moscow, which it did, a move that has been given way too much prominence by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in a press conference.

Putin could order tests to determine battle readiness...http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-ukraine-russia-military-readiness-20140226,0,6553481.story#axzz2uT5s9Zm7

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

What's really scary, is I haven't seen Gary in here since this broke. Hope his wife's family is ok.

He's probably just hanging out on Ankara's awesome beaches.

[Dakine10 5,452]

What's really scary, is I haven't seen Gary in here since this broke. Hope his wife's family is ok.

Gary stays in Donetsk, IIRC. He would be relatively safe, for the moment, as long as they are not flying into Kiev and then travelling by train.

[Teddy B 17,252]

He's probably just hanging out on Ankara's awesome beaches.

Do they have hackney carriages in Ankara?

[GandD 5,966]

I heard some Russian Militants took over some buildings yesterday in east Ukraine and raised the russian flag. Loyalists!

[Dakine10 5,452]

I heard some Russian Militants took over some buildings yesterday in east Ukraine and raised the russian flag. Loyalists!

Yesterday, militia entered the parliament building in Simferopol. Politicians there voted today to hold a referendum on separation and the militia is there to ensure no outside forces interfere or intimidate politicians. My wife told me that when Crimea originally became a semi-autonomous region, there was a law that allowed the Crimean autonomous government to ask for a Russian miltary presence in Crimea until the process was resolved.

Apparently that law still exists, so we may see Russians there sooner than later.

This region is the proverbial line in the sand for Russia which is probably why we haven't heard a lot of rhetoric from them. Rhetoric is not needed when everyone knows what you're going to do.

[Harpa Timsah 13,258]

So, a new Crimean war.

[mota bhai 2,675]

Da.

[Dakine10 5,452]

I believe the anti Russian sentiment in Ukraine leaves little doubt about the referendum outcome in a region that is predominantly Russian. The question is if the central government in Kiev will recognize those results or not.

Yanukovich also just resurfaced in Russia denouncing the "coup d'etat" that took place and claiming that he has no intention of giving up the presidency. Well played. It's like a chess game between grandmasters. The moves are always the same, unless or until someone makes a mistake.

[Dakine10 5,452]

[lostinblue 1,989]

The Holodomor is what around 80 years ago. This must still be on the minds of many of the people?. Why they are willing to push back so much?

[mota bhai 2,675]

Man-made famines were a common tool employed by imperialist powers over the last few centuries. Not just in the Ukraine but elsewhere as well. No one seems to remember that anymore.