ALL F4's 2

[sanjku74 4]

hello everyone..my pd is APRIL 01,2002 under F4 category. it has been more than 12 years since we applied. i was hoping that i would get my green card this year but when i read about the retrogression news i was heartbroken. can anyone please give some more detail about what is going to happen in the coming months. it feels awful when you expect something and suddenly realise that you will have to wait for more time. i seriously want to get green card as soon as possible.please enlighten me !!

i have been facing bad news every month since the last three years in terms of slow VB movement. i was expecting a huge movement in coming months because june to sep is the last quarter of the fiscal year when major movement takes place. how is this possible that retrogression takes place again. the previous one has not recovered till now ( it has been more than 3 years). even the movement was very slow. then how come the applicant demand suddenly increased?

help me please..i feel depressed

u will get your visa aug or sep month

[lengygf 25]

No retrogression for F4 category will occur in the next 3 years. The May visa bulletin was talking about retrogression for F2A, which has been advancing at a fanatical pace in the past two years.

I was checking the number of applicants in India every month, the two week movement in recent months has caused a decreasing number of applicants (going to the interview), the number is also well below the monthly average in the past.

Cutoff dates for F4 is likely to advance 3 weeks next month. For July, August and September it will move 3 - 4 weeks every month. Currently the documentary qualified applicants is lining up to July 2002. (NVC issued COA up to July 2002). All cases has been stuck there for 3 years thus the demand is extremely high at this point because every single case is almost complete, and essentially none of them received the visa.

Once the cutoff date approaches July 2002,( say June 2002, which is likely to happen later this year, most likely November), NVC will start issuing new COAs to August 2002 onward applications. Once the cutoff date goes past July 2002, there will be fast movement for F4, because 1) only a small portion of August 2002 (and onward) applications can be completed in such a short period of time. 2) number of applications in 2002 is lower than that of 2001.

F3 is a very good example. COAs were issued up to April 2003 prior to the retrogression in 2010. At the beginning of this year, PD for F3 moved past April 2003; NVC start issung new COAs almost the same time, and we have been seeing fast movement in F3 ( 1.5 - 2 months per month), and recently June 2004 applications have already received COA (pending confirmation).

Edited April 14, 2014 by lengygf

[isoballer 7]

No retrogression for F4 category will occur in the next 3 years. The May visa bulletin was talking about retrogression for F2A, which has been advancing at a fanatical pace in the past two years.

I was checking the number of applicants in India every month, the two week movement in recent months has caused a decreasing number of applicants (going to the interview), the number is also well below the monthly average in the past.

Cutoff dates for F4 is likely to advance 3 weeks next month. For July, August and September it will move 3 - 4 weeks every month. Currently the documentary qualified applicants is lining up to July 2002. (NVC issued COA up to July 2002). All cases has been stuck there for 3 years thus the demand is extremely high at this point because every single case is almost complete, and essentially none of them received the visa.

Once the cutoff date approaches July 2002,( say June 2002, which is likely to happen later this year, most likely November), NVC will start issuing new COAs to August 2002 onward applications. Once the cutoff date goes past July 2002, there will be fast movement for F4, because 1) only a small portion of August 2002 (and onward) applications can be completed in such a short period of time. 2) number of applications in 2002 is lower than that of 2001.

F3 is a very good example. COAs were issued up to April 2003 prior to the retrogression in 2010. At the beginning of this year, PD for F3 moved past April 2003; NVC start issung new COAs almost the same time, and we have been seeing fast movement in F3 ( 1.5 - 2 months per month), and recently June 2004 applications have already received COA (pending confirmation).

any source?

[lengygf 25]

which part do you want to see the source?

any source?

[lengygf 25]

I see - the underlined part

1) is based on the data I tabulated from I130 receipient published by USCIS. The average number of applications in 2002 is smaller than that of 2001. Of course, this is the total number of family based petititions, include immediate family members , F1, F2A,..... I am assuming proportion stays the same

2). think about this: how long does it usually take for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA ? The fastest I saw was 2.5 months. Most take over 6 months because 1) they hire attorneys to handle all the steps, attorneys are always slow and lazy 2) they are not familiar with the procedure at all, thus they do things slowly. 3) in some countries, document issuing and mailing are extremely time - consuming.

I consider this variable (time it takes for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA) follow a normal distribution curve, which is, a few of them complete the case within a short period of time (say 3 month), most take about 6 - 8 months, few takes longer (above 9 months). Then it's evident to see why F4 cutoff date is slow in 2001 - it has been 3 years since COA was issued. Every single application was almost complete, none of them got the visa yet since cutoff dates retrogressed immediately after reaching Jan 1st 2002.

any source?

[isoballer 7]

I see - the underlined part

1) is based on the data I tabulated from I130 receipient published by USCIS. The average number of applications in 2002 is smaller than that of 2001. Of course, this is the total number of family based petititions, include immediate family members , F1, F2A,..... I am assuming proportion stays the same

2). think about this: how long does it usually take for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA ? The fastest I saw was 2.5 months. Most take over 6 months because 1) they hire attorneys to handle all the steps, attorneys are always slow and lazy 2) they are not familiar with the procedure at all, thus they do things slowly. 3) in some countries, document issuing and mailing are extremely time - consuming.

I consider this variable (time it takes for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA) follow a normal distribution curve, which is, a few of them complete the case within a short period of time (say 3 month), most take about 6 - 8 months, few takes longer (above 9 months). Then it's evident to see why F4 cutoff date is slow in 2001 - it has been 3 years since COA was issued. Every single application was almost complete, none of them got the visa yet since cutoff dates retrogressed immediately after reaching Jan 1st 2002.

thank you very much, understood it

Edited April 14, 2014 by Hrithik9

[manna 14]

I see - the underlined part

1) is based on the data I tabulated from I130 receipient published by USCIS. The average number of applications in 2002 is smaller than that of 2001. Of course, this is the total number of family based petititions, include immediate family members , F1, F2A,..... I am assuming proportion stays the same

2). think about this: how long does it usually take for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA ? The fastest I saw was 2.5 months. Most take over 6 months because 1) they hire attorneys to handle all the steps, attorneys are always slow and lazy 2) they are not familiar with the procedure at all, thus they do things slowly. 3) in some countries, document issuing and mailing are extremely time - consuming.

I consider this variable (time it takes for an applicant to complete the case after receiving COA) follow a normal distribution curve, which is, a few of them complete the case within a short period of time (say 3 month), most take about 6 - 8 months, few takes longer (above 9 months). Then it's evident to see why F4 cutoff date is slow in 2001 - it has been 3 years since COA was issued. Every single application was almost complete, none of them got the visa yet since cutoff dates retrogressed immediately after reaching Jan 1st 2002.

Great !All the points you made are quite logical and are backed by data .Let's wait and watch

[isoballer 7]

May VB: 08 DEC 01

June VB: 22 DEC 01

July VB: 15 JAN 02

August VB: 08 FEB 02

September VB: 01 March 02

[manna 14]

May VB: 08 DEC 01

June VB: 22 DEC 01

July VB: 15 JAN 02

August VB: 08 FEB 02

September VB: 01 March 02

Starting PD JAN 2002 I guess it will be Four weeks per month.

[isoballer 7]

Starting PD JAN 2002 I guess it will be Four weeks per month.

yeah hope so

[isoballer 7]

hello everyone..my pd is APRIL 01,2002 under F4 category. it has been more than 12 years since we applied. i was hoping that i would get my green card this year but when i read about the retrogression news i was heartbroken. can anyone please give some more detail about what is going to happen in the coming months. it feels awful when you expect something and suddenly realise that you will have to wait for more time. i seriously want to get green card as soon as possible.please enlighten me !!

i have been facing bad news every month since the last three years in terms of slow VB movement. i was expecting a huge movement in coming months because june to sep is the last quarter of the fiscal year when major movement takes place. how is this possible that retrogression takes place again. the previous one has not recovered till now ( it has been more than 3 years). even the movement was very slow. then how come the applicant demand suddenly increased?

help me please..i feel depressed

dont worry, you will be current in october or at most november, you will be getting green card this year 100% dont worry dude

[Lios 4]

2014

May - 08 DEC 01

June - 01 JAN 02

July - 22 JAN or 01 FEB 02

2011

01 JAN 02

01 JAN 02

01 JAN 00

[coolguy11 5]

even i think that retrogression will not take place because the visa bulletin for may 2014 advanced by 2 weeks. this means that the demand of applicants is not very high. if retrogression in the coming months was to occur, the PDs for our category would not have moved this month. for example, the cutoff date for F2A has stuck on 08SEP13 since the beginning of the FY. it was announced last year that retrogression in this category is likely to occur due to fast movement of vb in during last couple of months. but in our case, the movement have been very much slow(i remember that the movement was 1 week per month till the PD reached 01MAY01).how is this possible that applicant demand is high? i don't really believe that retrogression will take place.

[sachin1 42]

any source?

yes it did happen. My file for my sister was on Jan-2002 and we had coa,sponser letter, paid fee (oct-2010) and was just waiting for interview letter on 2010 and file went back like 700+days.

When I called NVC about week ago they told me I will get interview call for that case in two-three month.

[coolguy11 5]

how confusing..one operator says that jan 2002 will recieve interview this year while another says that retrogression will occur..i called nvc twice but all representitives were busy!