NOA2 and processing time charts

[Stijn&Linh 0]

Hello everyone,

Me and my fiancée are anxiously waiting for an update on our case status. I was wondering how accurate the graphs are on the processing time page. We received our NOA1 email from the TSC on december 18th, which is 68 days ago. I know it's probably too soon, but I can't help but getting a little worried. Could somebody please tell me this is normal before I start harrassing them 3 months early

EDIT: forgot to mention, the case status page says "On December 26, 2013, your Alien Registration Number was changed relating to your I129F, PETITION FOR FIANCE(E)." Does that mean anything else besides getting assigned a number?

Edited February 24, 2014 by Stijn&Linh

[ChrisFurlough 18]

The graphs are as accurate as the input info. I'm a data-head like you, and I run all sorts of queries and average the dates to try to divine when my case will take the next step. From my time doing this, I can tell you that the USCIS doesn't do things in any sort of order, and data swings WILDLY both ways, and some people don't input their data at all, or do so late, so you can't really glean anything from it. It is an estimate at best.

As for the Alien number, what I *assume* is that their system is set up to alert you when you case record changes. When it's first created (NOA1), it's created with a BLANK Alien number. Once they do a little processing on your case, they assign you a number. That constitutes a CHANGE, so you get a notification. Other than that? It means nothing.

[lorella 65]

I do not think the graphs on the processing time page are accurate for the average case...especially for TSC (i'm also at TSC with an NOA1 date of 1/2/14).

The estimated time the graphs show is lower due to a couple reasons - one being the Philippines cases that are expedited. Those less than 30 day approvals reduce the overall average reported. The second thing that causes an incorrect estimate for the TSC graphs is that all K-1 visas are are mailed to the Texas lockbox. I've noticed a number of users whose applications are actually being processed at CSC but the user puts TSC as their initial service center since they mailed it to Texas...then enter a "transfer" to CSC when they get their NOA1. However, on Igor's list (have you seen this list? If not, definitely google it) those people still show up in the TSC data - when they are actually CSC. In recent months CSC has been processing applications faster than TSC - so that again inaccurately reduces the estimate time for TSC. It looks like some mid-November cases (non-Philippines) were approved by TSC last week. So it seems like a minimum 90-100 day wait may be more appropriate for TSC filers right now.

In regards to the Alien Registration Number - my case has the same notification occurring on 1/6/14 (4 days after my NOA1 date). I'm not sure what it means. Some people will get the same notification when they are about to get an approval...but it being so close to the NOA1 date - it seems like it might be when the application was entered into the system. Again, I'm not really sure about that...just a guess.

Edited February 24, 2014 by lorella

[Stijn&Linh 0]

Alright, thanks a lot for the info Chris & Lorella Kind of a bummer we got our hopes up too soon. I'd already guessed the Phillipine cases had something to do with it, but I didn't know about the incorrect service centre listing. I'll definitely keep an eye on Igor's list and hope for good news soon. Best of luck to the two of you too!

[lorella 65]

Alright, thanks a lot for the info Chris & Lorella Kind of a bummer we got our hopes up too soon. I'd already guessed the Phillipine cases had something to do with it, but I didn't know about the incorrect service centre listing. I'll definitely keep an eye on Igor's list and hope for good news soon. Best of luck to the two of you too!

you're welcome. i know, it definitely got my hopes up early on! now i'm just resolved to the fact that i should expect 5 months. good luck to you too!

[TBoneTX 46,067]

*** Thread moved from K-1 Process forum to the K-1 Case Progress subforum. ***

[deleteddd 35]

Hello everyone,

Me and my fiancée are anxiously waiting for an update on our case status. I was wondering how accurate the graphs are on the processing time page. We received our NOA1 email from the TSC on december 18th, which is 68 days ago. I know it's probably too soon, but I can't help but getting a little worried. Could somebody please tell me this is normal before I start harrassing them 3 months early

EDIT: forgot to mention, the case status page says "On December 26, 2013, your Alien Registration Number was changed relating to your I129F, PETITION FOR FIANCE(E)." Does that mean anything else besides getting assigned a number?

Hey Stijn&Linh,

Did you finally get your NOA2?

[Stijn&Linh 0]

No, still nothing. 138 days so far :[