Ukrainian MPs vote to oust President Yanukovych

[Dakine10 5,452]

In 1957, the US government, having closely reviewed the French humiliation in Indochina, acknowledged that US military intervention in Vietnam was not a viable option, as there was no strategic objective to be achieved.

We all know how that played out.

Whether or not Putin realises that military action is doomed to failure, and I'm not at all sure he does, it may be that he engages in that option as a face-saving measure, to show he is still the hard man his PR spin shows him to be. The alternative may be to admit that his man, and by default Russian influence in the Ukraine, was beaten by a girl.

I'm not sure that's a valid analogy. If 60% of the people in Vietnam were ethnic Americans, then we might have considered that war to have had a legitimate purpose, and perhaps, a different outcome.

[Pooky 3,783]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/02/22/the-battle-for-kiev-may-well-be-over-but-is-the-battle-for-crimea-about-to-begin/

The precedent was set when Russia basically partitioned Abkhazia off from the rest of Georgia in 2008. Nothing much happened in the way of consequences for Russia after that, so Putin may think he can do something similar here.

The difference is that the opposition in the Ukraine may appeal directly to the EU and/or NATO if anything kicks off. What happens then is anyone's guess, but I suspect that any red line will bring action.

It could get very messy.

[Dakine10 5,452]

It will be a mess. Crimea's status as a semi autonomic republic and the fact that the Russian fleets lease on the naval base in Sevastopol runs through 2042 gives some legitimacy to Russia being there. More legitimate than NATO, IMO, when all the facts come out.

The significant role of the neo-nazi's in the opposition movement will limit the EU's role in all this. I'm sure in the long run, the EU would rather deal with a pro Russian government in Ukraine then a pro nazi one.

[Pooky 3,783]

It will be a mess. Crimea's status as a semi autonomic republic and the fact that the Russian fleets lease on the naval base in Sevastopol runs through 2042 gives some legitimacy to Russia being there. More legitimate than NATO, IMO, when all the facts come out.

The significant role of the neo-nazi's in the opposition movement will limit the EU's role in all this. I'm sure in the long run, the EU would rather deal with a pro Russian government in Ukraine then a pro nazi one.

The interim president is already making overtures to the EU. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/ukraine-charts-course-europe-wants-neighborly-russia-ties-n36821

The EU would rather deal with a Ukrainian government acting independently from outside influences. Yanukovych was the pro-Russian face of politics in the Ukraine, and the evidence being unearthed in his residency is destroying what little respect he still had, even with his own party. With Yulia Tymoshenko eliminating herself from future political office, the opposition stands a chance of holding together until the elections set for May 25th.

[Dakine10 5,452]

The interim president is already making overtures to the EU. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/ukraine-charts-course-europe-wants-neighborly-russia-ties-n36821

The EU would rather deal with a Ukrainian government acting independently from outside influences. Yanukovych was the pro-Russian face of politics in the Ukraine, and the evidence being unearthed in his residency is destroying what little respect he still had, even with his own party. With Yulia Tymoshenko eliminating herself from future political office, the opposition stands a chance of holding together until the elections set for May 25th.

If it was only about changing the government, we would have all just waited 3 months for the elections, and the democratic process would take place. Timing is everything. Yanukovych is pro Russian, but everyone knew that when he was elected. Yushenko, Timoshenko and the orange revolution failed for the same reason that hope and change did. Empty promises only go so far.

People in Kiev stand in line at supermarkets that don't have any food. When Russia takes back it's offer of $15 billion in aid, the US and/or EU will have to step in. Let's see if that happens. It didn't last time.

I'm not a fan of Yanukovich either. Corruption is horrible in Ukraine, but I don't think you can fight corruption with corruption and expect things to change. The best they can hope for is to trade one jackass for another. Just like we do, I guess. Welcome to democracy.

[Hotter Otter 1,211]

I doubt there will be military action by Russia unless there is a civil war and the Russian naval base in the Crimea is threatened. Putin has more options to increase pressure, for example by turning off the oil and gas it supplies to the Ukraine or raising prices. Not to mention cancelling the funds he promised. Not sure if the European governments will want to fund the loan Russia was going to provide- the UK and Germany have made positive noises but countries that are still in recession won't be too keen I should imagine,