Ukrainian MPs vote to oust President Yanukovych

[Pooky 3,783]

It looks like things are moving quickly in the Ukraine. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304842

Will things stay relatively non-violent, or will things spiral out of control?

Will Russia make a move to intervene? If so, will it be political, economic, military, or a combination of these?

Or has Russia just lost the "battle" for the Ukraine?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I don't think much of anything is resolved in Ukraine yet. The carnage stopped for now, people are talking rather than shooting and that is good. But Russia isn't going to let go that easily. Putin will exert economic pressure on Ukraine as he has done in the past. Anything to prevent the Ukrainian people to pursue their goals and their dreams. It's what dictators such as Putin and his Ukrainian puppets do.

Edited February 22, 2014 by Mr. Big Dog

[Pooky 3,783]

I don't think much of anything is resolved in Ukraine yet. The carnage stopped for now, people are talking rather than shooting and that is good. But Russia isn't going to let go that easily. Putin will exert economic pressure on Ukraine as he has done in the past. Anything to prevent the Ukrainian people to pursue their goals and their dreams. It's what dictators such as Putin and his Ukrainian puppets do.

I doubt his chief puppet, President Yanukovych, is going to be much use any more. You don't vacate your official residence, and the capital completely, if you think you're coming out on top. On top of that, the release of your main opponent from convenient political detention does not bode well for your chances. I'm not sure Putin has any real friends left in a position to make much of a difference.

Whether the Ukrainian military stays out of it will be a big factor, too.

Lastly, without Yanukovych, the EU will be a bigger counterbalance to any economic or political measures that Russia might use.

The military option scares me, though. That would get messy very quickly.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I doubt his chief puppet, President Yanukovych, is going to be much use any more. You don't vacate your official residence, and the capital completely, if you think you're coming out on top. On top of that, the release of your main opponent from convenient political detention does not bode well for your chances. I'm not sure Putin has any real friends left in a position to make much of a difference.

Whether the Ukrainian military stays out of it will be a big factor, too.

Lastly, without Yanukovych, the EU will be a bigger counterbalance to any economic or political measures that Russia might use.

The military option scares me, though. That would get messy very quickly.

True, Yanukovych is done. I read that he attemted to broard a plane to Russia but was kept from doing so by Ukrainian border officials. I think he'll be in a world of hurt before long. The people in Ukraine will demand that he be held accountable for the dozens of murders committed under his command. You're right, Putin may not have a lot of cards left to play. Aside from the military, that is. But if he does that, he will be done as well. There's no Russian victory to be had in Ukraine using the military. Putin must know this.

[Pooky 3,783]

True, Yanukovych is done. I read that he attemted to broard a plane to Russia but was kept from doing so by Ukrainian border officials. I think he'll be in a world of hurt before long. The people in Ukraine will demand that he be held accountable for the dozens of murders committed under his command. You're right, Putin may not have a lot of cards left to play. Aside from the military, that is. But if he does that, he will be done as well. There's no Russian victory to be had in Ukraine using the military. Putin must know this.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that last part holds true.

Just look at what happened in Georgia in 2008, and the fallout, or total lack of same, that ensued for Russia.

Edited February 22, 2014 by Pooky

[Peikko 1,575]

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that last part holds true.

Just look at what happened in Georgia in 2008, and the fallout, or total lack of same, that ensued for Russia.

Putin is not a happy boy, Russia didn't win gold in Ice hockey. Like any spoiled boy when he doesn't get his own way wrath ensues. This could be just what he needs to reestablish his manly balls in front of the Nation.

[Neonred 3,562]

Russia has publicly stated that if Ukraine breaks apart they are willing to fight a war over Crimea, an area that is 60 % ethnically Russian and where the Russian Black Sea fleet is stationed.

Edited February 22, 2014 by Neonred

[Pooky 3,783]

Putin is not a happy boy, Russia didn't win gold in Ice hockey. Like any spoiled boy when he doesn't get his own way wrath ensues. This could be just what he needs to reestablish his manly balls in front of the Nation.

If Putin decides to act like the petulant brat he appears to be, it will be no laughing matter.

Unlike Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Georgia in 2008 and the ongoing situation in Chechnya, the EU and most probably NATO will not have the option of standing by and doing nothing, if the Putin decides that the Russian military is going to intervene.

[Karee 4,190]

Just look at what happened in Georgia in 2008, and the fallout, or total lack of same, that ensued for Russia.

Or Hungary or Prague years ago.

If Putin decides to act like the petulant brat he appears to be, it will be no laughing matter.

Unlike Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Georgia in 2008 and the ongoing situation in Chechnya, the EU and most probably NATO will not have the option of standing by and doing nothing, if the Putin decides that the Russian military is going to intervene.

Oops. I should probably start reading the whole thread before replying.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Or Hungary or Prague years ago.

Or Berlin in 1953. But those were different times altogether. Not sure that one can draw valid comparisons between the cold war era and the years since the fall of the iron curtain. Any intervention by the West in the Eastern European popular uprisings in the 50's and 60's would have brought the world to the brink of a potentially all destructive WW III.

[Karee 4,190]

Or Berlin in 1953. But those were different times altogether. Not sure that one can draw valid comparisons between the cold war era and the years since the fall of the iron curtain. Any intervention by the West in the Eastern European popular uprisings in the 50's and 60's would have brought the world to the brink of a potentially all destructive WW III.

Good point. I just don't see the shirtless man on the horse standing by while Ukraine sides with the E.U.

I'm sure our resident Ukraine expert will be along shortly to straighten everyone out after he finishes the wife's laundry.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Good point. I just don't see the shirtless man on the horse standing by while Ukraine sides with the E.U.

I'm sure our resident Ukraine expert will be along shortly to straighten everyone out after he finishes the wife's laundry.

No, he won;t stand by. He will do what he can to oppress the people of Ukraine and strong-arm them into compliance. I just don't see him doing that militarily. Don't think he can win that. Don't think he thinks he can win it either.

[Pooky 3,783]

No, he won't stand by. He will do what he can to oppress the people of Ukraine and strong-arm them into compliance. I just don't see him doing that militarily. Don't think he can win that. Don't think he thinks he can win it either.

In 1957, the US government, having closely reviewed the French humiliation in Indochina, acknowledged that US military intervention in Vietnam was not a viable option, as there was no strategic objective to be achieved.

We all know how that played out.

Whether or not Putin realises that military action is doomed to failure, and I'm not at all sure he does, it may be that he engages in that option as a face-saving measure, to show he is still the hard man his PR spin shows him to be. The alternative may be to admit that his man, and by default Russian influence in the Ukraine, was beaten by a girl.

[Dakine10 5,452]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/22/us-ukraine-crisis-regions-idUSBREA1L0KH20140222

Politicians in Crimea and eastern Ukraine voted yesterday not to follow any more directives from the central government in Kiev until order is restored. They also voted to form and fund militia's to protect arms depot's and other military installations.

Part of me says two separates states would be the likely outcome if put to referendum, but probably not likely given the disproportionate amound of industry in eastern Ukraine.

Edited February 23, 2014 by Dakine10

[Dakine10 5,452]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/02/22/the-battle-for-kiev-may-well-be-over-but-is-the-battle-for-crimea-about-to-begin/

A few days ago, a Russian official told the Financial Times that if Ukraine began to get more chaotic, they would step in to protect the ethnic Russians and the Russian navy base on the peninsula. “If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war,” the unnamed official told the newspaper. “They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” (Whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would really want to set that precedent is unclear, however