The split of Ukraine will be worse than Syria, says Ukrainian politician

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By Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Henry Meyer Feb 20, 2014

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As the divisions within Ukraine become more indelible, regions are mobilizing like never before. The crisis prompted warnings from politicians including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that further violence might escalate into the first civil war in Europe since the breakup of Yugoslavia.

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“There is the possibility this could spin out of control into a confrontation amongst Ukrainians,” said Joerg Forbrig, senior program officer for central and eastern Europe at the Berlin bureau of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. “This could add another conflict in Europe.”

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In the Black Sea region of Crimea, part of Russia until 1954, there are calls for the government in Moscow to intervene, while some in the Russian-speaking eastern industrial heartland are seeking more autonomy. Should Yanukovych be forced from power, Russia may encourage Ukrainian regions loyal to it to secede, according to Forbrig.

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The west of Ukraine, where the pipelines carrying Russian gas feed into the European network through the Polish, Slovak and Hungarian borders, has been increasingly slipping out of Yanukovych’s grasp. The regions have been restless since protesters last month occupied several regional administration headquarters and evicted the Kiev-appointed governors.

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“The split of such a country as Ukraine won’t happen without major consequences, not for Russia, not for the EU,” said Yuriy Pidlisnyi, an academic and deputy head of the Batkivshchyna, or Fatherland party faction in the Lviv regional parliament. “No one has an interest in such destabilization. It will be worse than Syria, worse than Yugoslavia.”

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Historically, the country has been divided dating back to Tsarist times. The east was settled by ethnic Russians, who were also sent to Crimea in the south during Stalin’s rule, and the west was part of Polish, Lithuanian and Austro-Hungarian empires. Western Ukraine was annexed by the Soviet Union in 1939 when it invaded Poland.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-19/ukraine-divisions-prompt-civil-war-warning-as-troops-crack-down.html