Anyone in real estate?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

My prediction is that the mkt will not turn for several years.

A BusinessWeek analysis of the past three decades shows that if history repeats itself, it's likely to take 15 years or more for many parts of the country to get back to their inflation-adjusted peaks.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/conte...sprb_realestate

[Fandango 1,439]

My prediction is that the mkt will not turn for several years.

A BusinessWeek analysis of the past three decades shows that if history repeats itself, it's likely to take 15 years or more for many parts of the country to get back to their inflation-adjusted peaks.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/conte...sprb_realestate

Well I wouldn't agree with 15......I'd say about 5 before it gets healthy-ish

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

15 is to reach "inflation-adjusted highs" in "many parts of the country". A worst case scenario, in other words. Doesn't preclude the possibility of earlier peaks in certain parts and certainly does not speak to a recovery starting well before. 15 years is the peak-to-peak prediction for some parts, not peak-to-trough, which is what (IMO) most people are more interested in.

[Fandango 1,439]

15 is to reach "inflation-adjusted highs" in "many parts of the country". A worst case scenario, in other words. Doesn't preclude the possibility of earlier peaks in certain parts and certainly does not speak to a recovery starting well before. 15 years is the peak-to-peak prediction for some parts, not peak-to-trough, which is what (IMO) most people are more interested in.

Florida's a bit unique in that the peaks are in shorter span

[rebeccajo 14]

A good agent can namke money even in a bad market.

True! But an agent gets better over time...so how do you start out being a great agent if you're green? True it could happen...but statistically speaking, it's more likely that profeciency comes with time and experience.

I agree......with this caveat......in this market I would almost rather give my listing to a green agent who is going to stay on my house and work it, rather than list it with a large inventory agent who's gonna lose my house in their heap-o-listings.

[Fandango 1,439]

A good agent can namke money even in a bad market.

True! But an agent gets better over time...so how do you start out being a great agent if you're green? True it could happen...but statistically speaking, it's more likely that profeciency comes with time and experience.

I agree......with this caveat......in this market I would almost rather give my listing to a green agent who is going to stay on my house and work it, rather than list it with a large inventory agent who's gonna lose my house in their heap-o-listings.

At the same time, there are many people who do not want to trust a newb with what is normally their biggest life investment.

6 and 2 3s really.....

[rebeccajo 14]

A good agent can namke money even in a bad market.

True! But an agent gets better over time...so how do you start out being a great agent if you're green? True it could happen...but statistically speaking, it's more likely that profeciency comes with time and experience.

I agree......with this caveat......in this market I would almost rather give my listing to a green agent who is going to stay on my house and work it, rather than list it with a large inventory agent who's gonna lose my house in their heap-o-listings.

At the same time, there are many people who do not want to trust a newb with what is normally their biggest life investment.

6 and 2 3s really.....

I'd say that's true. But then there's also people who like to help someone make a start? Everybody has to start somewhere, right?

[Fandango 1,439]

A good agent can namke money even in a bad market.

True! But an agent gets better over time...so how do you start out being a great agent if you're green? True it could happen...but statistically speaking, it's more likely that profeciency comes with time and experience.

I agree......with this caveat......in this market I would almost rather give my listing to a green agent who is going to stay on my house and work it, rather than list it with a large inventory agent who's gonna lose my house in their heap-o-listings.

At the same time, there are many people who do not want to trust a newb with what is normally their biggest life investment.

6 and 2 3s really.....

I'd say that's true. But then there's also people who like to help someone make a start? Everybody has to start somewhere, right?

Sure, but a lot of ppl aren't so magnanimous when the 'start' is with their life's investment

[rebeccajo 14]

A good agent can namke money even in a bad market.

True! But an agent gets better over time...so how do you start out being a great agent if you're green? True it could happen...but statistically speaking, it's more likely that profeciency comes with time and experience.

I agree......with this caveat......in this market I would almost rather give my listing to a green agent who is going to stay on my house and work it, rather than list it with a large inventory agent who's gonna lose my house in their heap-o-listings.

At the same time, there are many people who do not want to trust a newb with what is normally their biggest life investment.

6 and 2 3s really.....

I'd say that's true. But then there's also people who like to help someone make a start? Everybody has to start somewhere, right?

Sure, but a lot of ppl aren't so magnanimous when the 'start' is with their life's investment

I'm confused. How did you get started? I mean - somebody had to give you a break....

[Fandango 1,439]

A good agent can namke money even in a bad market.

True! But an agent gets better over time...so how do you start out being a great agent if you're green? True it could happen...but statistically speaking, it's more likely that profeciency comes with time and experience.

I agree......with this caveat......in this market I would almost rather give my listing to a green agent who is going to stay on my house and work it, rather than list it with a large inventory agent who's gonna lose my house in their heap-o-listings.

At the same time, there are many people who do not want to trust a newb with what is normally their biggest life investment.

6 and 2 3s really.....

I'd say that's true. But then there's also people who like to help someone make a start? Everybody has to start somewhere, right?

Sure, but a lot of ppl aren't so magnanimous when the 'start' is with their life's investment

I'm confused. How did you get started? I mean - somebody had to give you a break....

Jeez, Becca...what's to be confused about? There are some that prefer newbs, there are others who don't....we're both right. I don't understand why you seem to be 'challenging' me when I'm only talking common sense and giving a perspective

How did I get started? I've been in business & sales field for many years. I have a college degree in business and have opened many salons...I know how to carry myself. I have a knack of the way I talk to ppl. Most of my customers have never even asked me how long I've been in the biz, but have commented that they're so happy they have someone who's 'experienced'. Even my first customers, actually. Most assume that because I drive a really swish car, that I'm making money hand over fist, which means I'm very successful in my field. It's been mentioned SO many times I can't even tell you.

I don't mislead people at all. I even correct them about the car & stuff like that. But they think I'm being modest or summat.

Then there are others who even now turn down my services to this day because being a licensed agent for over 3 years and having a page of references from cutomers a mile long AND having statistical data on how my listings fare as far as asking price vs selling price, number of days on mkt, etc...all vs the county statistics which actually show me in a favorable light as far as being more successful in terms of numbers....and they'll still turn to me and say 'so and so has been in the biz 15 years and I'm more comfortable with someone more experienced.'

I'm not sat here saying you're wrong in what you're saying.....but there IS another side to this coin too. This biz is my passion and my lifeblood and to kinda bicker this point seems to me like tryin to teach a granny to suck eggs.

I'm sorry if I seem a little blunt.

Edited January 2, 2007 by LisaD

[rebeccajo 14]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.....I'm not challenging you....I really just want to understand.........

[Fandango 1,439]

oh...ok then...my bad! Sorry that I snipped then...I guess I'm a little short tempered cos I'm so sick

One more v imp factor: I got my startduring a BOOMING market. People were so excited about housing that you just had to be in the right place at the right time...my first three weeks or so in the biz and I wrote over $1 million all with $100-$200k properties. My friend, who I started with, didn't get her first sale until 3 months later.

I guess I'm so adamant about this point not going unnoticed because I want to emphasise what a big gesture of trust it is for a customer to believe in you enough that they let you can handle what is usually the biggest purchase/sale of their lifetimes. It's something that I always remember when someone puts their faith in me. I have seen many new agents mess things up completely for people just based on pure greenness. And most of the time, when summat doesn't go right...or like say a listing doesn't sell...you know who gets blamed even if it's not their fault? Yep...the agent. So not only does a new agent have to have the savvy to be able to put forth a knowlegeable and competent persona, (s)he also has to overcome what a lot of the public perceives us to be....inept, unneccessary, overpriced, etc. I'm not saying that all is doomed for a new agent, but I can say that there are many people who will not be so willing to 'give the kid a break' when it comes to something so important.

That help at all, Becs?

I'm not trying to dissuade anyone from getting into the real estate profession because I think it happens to be a wonderful profession & I love what I do and tbh, couldn't see myself doing anything else (other than ever going to law school, but that's besides the point). I guess I am trying to give a more complete picture than what ppl normally see about the stereotypical real estate professional. I thought it'd be a lot easier than it was....there are many aspects of the biz that are hard and frustrating...as with anything, really.....but I think any potential agent should know the full pic before jumping in with their eyes closed and getting a startling dose of reality after the fact.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Florida's a bit unique in that the peaks are in shorter span

I take it you're not in the "this time it's different" school of thought?

[Fandango 1,439]

Florida's a bit unique in that the peaks are in shorter span

I take it you're not in the "this time it's different" school of thought?

nope!