USCIS Estimates vs VJ's - Time Capsule!

[nightingalejules 678]

Ok, so, as we all know (especially those of us filing for IR-1/CR-1, who seem to be most affected by it right now:

Somewhere around the 20th of the month, USCIS "updates" the processing times data on their website. We get to know those dates pretty well, because those are the dates that Tier 2s will be quoting to us for the next month.

Of course, we know that the data is out of date from the moment it's posted. It says so, right on the website. The current batch of data (that was posted about January 22, 2014) was current as of November 30th, 2013.

We also often wonder if the data was ever right, or if it's been manipulated to minimize the number of people who have the right to call and complain. Unfortunately, we seem to find it difficult to remember what was (by our observation) going on almost 2 months ago.

SO...

Today is January 30th. Tomorrow, we post as much information as we can about what is going on in our corner of VJ. Then, in March, when the USCIS posts the data that they allegedly have for January 31, 2014, we will be able to see how the two sets of data line up.

For example,on the VJ Estimated Processing dates chart that was posted today, I-130s were being processed as follows:

CSC: June 14th

VSC: April 21st

TSC: May 15th
NBC: May 13th

We don't have information about NSC posted on this list, but I think their numbers would be pretty much in line with the numbers posted for VSC. (In fact, since no recent transfers went to VSC, it seems possible that those dates are actually meant to apply to Nebraska.

The vast majority of July has been transferred to other centres, chiefly CSC, and anecdotally they are already receiving approvals. Meanwhile, NSC is starting to get caught up, approving petitions from (mostly) April.

Let's get together and make a time capsule that we can refer to when the January data comes from USCIS in March!

[TAandNA 13]

Thats a good idea !

[nightingalejules 678]

On January 31, 2014, VJ data was as follows:

In the Immigration Timelines section, it said

Petitions with NOA1 dates as follows are currently being processed:

I-130s for IR1/CR1 and K3 Visas:

CSC: May 17, 2013

VSC: April 23, 2013

TSC: June 15, 2013 (!)

NBC: May 13, 2013

Igor's list (showing the last 15 approvals)

From NBC: 7 from April, 1 from May, 6 from the second half of July, and 1 from the beginning of August (these are actually from several offices, since Igor's list doesn't always recognise transfers.

From CSC: (only shows 2 from January (see? doesn't show transfers)), 1 from Sept 2012, and 1 from April

From TSC: (2 from January), 1 from March and 1 from July

From VSC: (6 from January), 2 from March, 1 from May, 1 from June, 2 from July

July Transfers seem to be virtually finished. August transfers have begun, albeit sporadically. A lot of these transfers seem to be going to CSC, which is processing them very quickly, while the other offices seem to be slowly catching up with older cases.

Looking at the transfer spreadsheets (this data is even less representative, since it requires 2 levels of compliance (it doesn't automatically update based on timeline updates, and people have to sign up for it and update it themselves)

Of March's reported transfers, 71% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are overwhelmingly from NSC

Of April's reported transfers, 78% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are from TSC and NSC (slightly more from TSC)

Of May's reported transfers, only 26% have gotten their NOA2 - basically only those who were transferred to CSC and a few from TSC.

Of June's reported transfers, 68% have gotten their NOA2 - again, NSC seems to be lagging (although both May and June sent a disproportionate number of petitions to NSC in the first place - more than half of May and slightly less than half of June transfers went there.

Of July's reported transfers, 46% have gotten their NOA2 - CSC is processing quite a lot of them, but they got the disproportionate number for July. TSC's approval percentages aren't too shabby either.

So it looks as though USCIS is looking to get the numbers down to a 6-7 month average by Feb or March. They're doing this by working both "ends" (in this case, the older cases in the backlog and the July (6month wait) towards the middle, which, while immensely frustrating for the people in the "middle", is actually fairly effective as a methodology.

My guess is that this process will continue, with one office (maybe CSC) continuing to mostly work ahead at chipping away at "new" cases - about 6 months out - and the other offices continuing to try to get rid of the backlog.

Overall, if VJ's data is a representative enough sample, (and USCIS is honest) the processing date that will be posted around March 20 should be somewhere in mid May.

Does anyone have anything else that should go in the Time Capsule?

[Eastyo 100]

On January 31, 2014, VJ data was as follows:

In the Immigration Timelines section, it said

Petitions with NOA1 dates as follows are currently being processed:

I-130s for IR1/CR1 and K3 Visas:

CSC: May 17, 2013

VSC: April 23, 2013

TSC: June 15, 2013 (!)

NBC: May 13, 2013

Igor's list (showing the last 15 approvals)

From NBC: 7 from April, 1 from May, 6 from the second half of July, and 1 from the beginning of August (these are actually from several offices, since Igor's list doesn't always recognise transfers.

From CSC: (only shows 2 from January (see? doesn't show transfers)), 1 from Sept 2012, and 1 from April

From TSC: (2 from January), 1 from March and 1 from July

From VSC: (6 from January), 2 from March, 1 from May, 1 from June, 2 from July

July Transfers seem to be virtually finished. August transfers have begun, albeit sporadically. A lot of these transfers seem to be going to CSC, which is processing them very quickly, while the other offices seem to be slowly catching up with older cases.

Looking at the transfer spreadsheets (this data is even less representative, since it requires 2 levels of compliance (it doesn't automatically update based on timeline updates, and people have to sign up for it and update it themselves)

Of March's reported transfers, 71% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are overwhelmingly from NSC

Of April's reported transfers, 78% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are from TSC and NSC (slightly more from TSC)

Of May's reported transfers, only 26% have gotten their NOA2 - basically only those who were transferred to CSC and a few from TSC.

Of June's reported transfers, 68% have gotten their NOA2 - again, NSC seems to be lagging (although both May and June sent a disproportionate number of petitions to NSC in the first place - more than half of May and slightly less than half of June transfers went there.

Of July's reported transfers, 46% have gotten their NOA2 - CSC is processing quite a lot of them, but they got the disproportionate number for July. TSC's approval percentages aren't too shabby either.

So it looks as though USCIS is looking to get the numbers down to a 6-7 month average by Feb or March. They're doing this by working both "ends" (in this case, the older cases in the backlog and the July (6month wait) towards the middle, which, while immensely frustrating for the people in the "middle", is actually fairly effective as a methodology.

My guess is that this process will continue, with one office (maybe CSC) continuing to mostly work ahead at chipping away at "new" cases - about 6 months out - and the other offices continuing to try to get rid of the backlog.

Overall, if VJ's data is a representative enough sample, (and USCIS is honest) the processing date that will be posted around March 20 should be somewhere in mid May.

Does anyone have anything else that should go in the Time Capsule?

I actually think you are bang on here, I think those "in the middle" are being screwed while the July - September (Pre-direct to the service centres) are going to be done quickly, allowing TSC and VSC to "catch up".

Therefore July - September should see a 6-7 month time to NOA2....

Im happy to "map this" with you

[Eastyo 100]

On January 31, 2014, VJ data was as follows:

In the Immigration Timelines section, it said

Petitions with NOA1 dates as follows are currently being processed:

I-130s for IR1/CR1 and K3 Visas:

CSC: May 17, 2013

VSC: April 23, 2013

TSC: June 15, 2013 (!)

NBC: May 13, 2013

Igor's list (showing the last 15 approvals)

From NBC: 7 from April, 1 from May, 6 from the second half of July, and 1 from the beginning of August (these are actually from several offices, since Igor's list doesn't always recognise transfers.

From CSC: (only shows 2 from January (see? doesn't show transfers)), 1 from Sept 2012, and 1 from April

From TSC: (2 from January), 1 from March and 1 from July

From VSC: (6 from January), 2 from March, 1 from May, 1 from June, 2 from July

July Transfers seem to be virtually finished. August transfers have begun, albeit sporadically. A lot of these transfers seem to be going to CSC, which is processing them very quickly, while the other offices seem to be slowly catching up with older cases.

Looking at the transfer spreadsheets (this data is even less representative, since it requires 2 levels of compliance (it doesn't automatically update based on timeline updates, and people have to sign up for it and update it themselves)

Of March's reported transfers, 71% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are overwhelmingly from NSC

Of April's reported transfers, 78% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are from TSC and NSC (slightly more from TSC)

Of May's reported transfers, only 26% have gotten their NOA2 - basically only those who were transferred to CSC and a few from TSC.

Of June's reported transfers, 68% have gotten their NOA2 - again, NSC seems to be lagging (although both May and June sent a disproportionate number of petitions to NSC in the first place - more than half of May and slightly less than half of June transfers went there.

Of July's reported transfers, 46% have gotten their NOA2 - CSC is processing quite a lot of them, but they got the disproportionate number for July. TSC's approval percentages aren't too shabby either.

So it looks as though USCIS is looking to get the numbers down to a 6-7 month average by Feb or March. They're doing this by working both "ends" (in this case, the older cases in the backlog and the July (6month wait) towards the middle, which, while immensely frustrating for the people in the "middle", is actually fairly effective as a methodology.

My guess is that this process will continue, with one office (maybe CSC) continuing to mostly work ahead at chipping away at "new" cases - about 6 months out - and the other offices continuing to try to get rid of the backlog.

Overall, if VJ's data is a representative enough sample, (and USCIS is honest) the processing date that will be posted around March 20 should be somewhere in mid May.

Does anyone have anything else that should go in the Time Capsule?

This is great, although you think that TSC is processing ahead of CSC?

[nightingalejules 678]

This is great, although you think that TSC is processing ahead of CSC?

No, I didn't say that. Quite the opposite. I think CSC is processing the most petitions across the board right now, although it looks like their focus is on newer files now. They seem to be processing a lot of July filers, while the other offices are working from the other end.

[Kaylara 814]

I've been taking screen shots of the relevant info for two months, and I know in the monthly threads there are others from the previous months.

[Ryan H 3,828]

Moved from Process & Procedures to Progress Reports.

[nightingalejules 678]

Kaylara-

That's awesome- I haven't seen any of that info... I was sure I wasn't the first person to think of it - I just thought it would be good to have it all in one thread. Can you post some of your screenshots or links to other info on this thread?

It always seemed to me that when the info got posted by uscis, we'd all be trying to remember what was actually happening back when that data was current, which is why I posted this.

Partly, I'm interested in finding out (inasmuch as possible) whether VJ's members make up a statistically relevant sample: does the data we collect accurately reflect the average.

[Kaylara 814]

Ok most recent screen shots:

And the charts

Info posted in Jan. processing times as of Nov. 31, 2013

Edited February 3, 2014 by Kaylara

[Kaylara 814]

Here are Dec. charts, info current as of Oct. 31, 2013

Hmmm... Seems like the files are too big to upload together. Let me tweak them.

[Kaylara 814]

Trying again... Nope, not working

https://www.facebook.com/groups/USGreencardpetitionerscommittee/ I have the screenshots all uploaded there.

[samreen23 461]

On January 31, 2014, VJ data was as follows:

In the Immigration Timelines section, it said

Petitions with NOA1 dates as follows are currently being processed:

I-130s for IR1/CR1 and K3 Visas:

CSC: May 17, 2013

VSC: April 23, 2013

TSC: June 15, 2013 (!)

NBC: May 13, 2013

Igor's list (showing the last 15 approvals)

From NBC: 7 from April, 1 from May, 6 from the second half of July, and 1 from the beginning of August (these are actually from several offices, since Igor's list doesn't always recognise transfers.

From CSC: (only shows 2 from January (see? doesn't show transfers)), 1 from Sept 2012, and 1 from April

From TSC: (2 from January), 1 from March and 1 from July

From VSC: (6 from January), 2 from March, 1 from May, 1 from June, 2 from July

July Transfers seem to be virtually finished. August transfers have begun, albeit sporadically. A lot of these transfers seem to be going to CSC, which is processing them very quickly, while the other offices seem to be slowly catching up with older cases.

Looking at the transfer spreadsheets (this data is even less representative, since it requires 2 levels of compliance (it doesn't automatically update based on timeline updates, and people have to sign up for it and update it themselves)

Of March's reported transfers, 71% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are overwhelmingly from NSC

Of April's reported transfers, 78% have gotten their NOA2 - those who have not are from TSC and NSC (slightly more from TSC)

Of May's reported transfers, only 26% have gotten their NOA2 - basically only those who were transferred to CSC and a few from TSC.

Of June's reported transfers, 68% have gotten their NOA2 - again, NSC seems to be lagging (although both May and June sent a disproportionate number of petitions to NSC in the first place - more than half of May and slightly less than half of June transfers went there.

Of July's reported transfers, 46% have gotten their NOA2 - CSC is processing quite a lot of them, but they got the disproportionate number for July. TSC's approval percentages aren't too shabby either.

So it looks as though USCIS is looking to get the numbers down to a 6-7 month average by Feb or March. They're doing this by working both "ends" (in this case, the older cases in the backlog and the July (6month wait) towards the middle, which, while immensely frustrating for the people in the "middle", is actually fairly effective as a methodology.

My guess is that this process will continue, with one office (maybe CSC) continuing to mostly work ahead at chipping away at "new" cases - about 6 months out - and the other offices continuing to try to get rid of the backlog.

Overall, if VJ's data is a representative enough sample, (and USCIS is honest) the processing date that will be posted around March 20 should be somewhere in mid May.

Does anyone have anything else that should go in the Time Capsule?

I think u did a pretty good calculation which can give us an idea what will be the next processing times but I m sorry u got the June info wrong. 68% have not gotten their NOA2 only 32% have gotten it uptil now according to the transfer sheet.

[nightingalejules 678]

I think u did a pretty good calculation which can give us an idea what will be the next processing times but I m sorry u got the June info wrong. 68% have not gotten their NOA2 only 32% have gotten it uptil now according to the transfer sheet.

Sorry! The day I looked at the transfer sheets the June sheet had a glitch of some kind. AND I probably read it wrong. Sorry if I gave false hope to all the June filers!

[nightingalejules 678]

Ok, ready to do another time capsule on Friday - I can't believe it's already another month end!

We'll be able to check our data against the next USCIS update in just a few weeks!