US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

[Rob L 3,811]

But if the market keeps climbing, doesn't that really mean that it's falling?

I am really struggling with this new math

[X Factor 1,112]

I am really struggling with this new math

Lol

[OriZ 3,157]

I am really struggling with this new math

Unfortunately you will continue to struggle for the coming years if you do not listen to the right people(aka me) about the market. And I will not feel bad for you, as a matter of fact, it brings me great pleasure to short this baby all the way down such as I did in 2008 and 2000-2002 while ignorant people suffer due to their own stupidity and unwillingless to listen.

[oten 0]

Stop giving obama credit he does not deserve.

[Teddy B 17,252]

Unfortunately you will continue to struggle for the coming years if you do not listen to the right people(aka me) about the market. And I will not feel bad for you, as a matter of fact, it brings me great pleasure to short this baby all the way down such as I did in 2008 and 2000-2002 while ignorant people suffer due to their own stupidity and unwillingless to listen.

This is good stuff right here!

[JohnR! 5,495]

Have you no shame?

This is good stuff right here!

Edited April 3, 2015 by JohnR!

[Teddy B 17,252]

Have you no shame?

None!

[Rob L 3,811]

[X Factor 1,112]

The weekly and monthly stock market trend is up so I will be bullish however I do short at certain times on a short term basis.

[OriZ 3,157]

The weekly and monthly stock market trend is up so I will be bullish however I do short at certain times on a short term basis.

What would make you change your opinion on the weekly and monthly trends?

[X Factor 1,112]

What would make you change your opinion on the weekly and monthly trends?

When it breaks the trend lines. Also looking at the Skew indicator that measures what the smart money is doing (hedge fund managers etc). That given we are due for a 10% correction which hasn't happened in a few years. So it depends on your trading horizon- intraday, swing ,weekly etc as well as the instruments you are trading

[OriZ 3,157]

I have mentioned in the past that to me only a break of the oct lows would mean a certain bear market. However, I also have forward looking tools and I think the risk/reward right now is just not worth it. Another 10% upside is possible(although far from guaranteed) on the other hand I don't see a bear market of less than a 40% decline. So it's just not there.

Personally the way I trade is options on all time frames. I have a system for trading based on 3 min, 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, 60 min, daily, weekly and monthly charts. Obviously we're not talking about naked long options due to the theta.

[OriZ 3,157]

I forgot to mention weekly and monthly are not done with options but futures(CFD)

[OriZ 3,157]

I think it's time for an update! No?

I have mentioned in the past that to me only a break of the oct lows would mean a certain bear market. However, I also have forward looking tools and I think the risk/reward right now is just not worth it. Another 10% upside is possible(although far from guaranteed) on the other hand I don't see a bear market of less than a 40% decline. So it's just not there.

Personally the way I trade is options on all time frames. I have a system for trading based on 3 min, 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, 60 min, daily, weekly and monthly charts. Obviously we're not talking about naked long options due to the theta.

Since this post was written the S&P has indeed risen! In two months...a whole of...1.3%! On track so far and as expected. It's crucial to remember that while the index itself is slightly higher, more and more stocks are actually NOT participating in this trend, and it is being carried by very few selective stocks. It's what I call the silent crash, which always preludes the real loud one. The one that nobody notices till it happens because they don't pay attention to the internals.

Above are my posts from Feb 9, 2014 and March 10, 2014. The S&P moved above the levels mentioned and never looked back. These levels are still key even a year later. To me they are the line in the sand between just a correction in a bull market and new highs afterwards, or, in the event of a break beneath, calling it a brand new bear market. Time will tell.

I am now shorting the stock market. That's not to say there's no room at all for further highs - there is, but it is very limited. And whatever gains will occur will be given back. So I feel very comfortable shorting at this level and remaining short until the market sheds at least 40% off CURRENT levels.

However, I am ditching my dollar trade. It's done up enough and probably time for a correction soon so I'm now neutral instead of long. I've also mentioned several months back that I was done shorting commodities for the time being and we have seen a decent bounce in them since. Neutral all those for now(eventually they will turn down again and the dollar up),

Well, since this post was written the S&P has also risen. In more than 3 months...by...*drum roll*...1.2%!

So, here is my take:

We're in a distribution phase which may or may not be already over with the May 20 intraday high. More and more stocks are "peeling off"...less and less of them making new highs. More divergences are showing up. The bottom line is - Unemployment rate is either done dropping, or will be done once it dips under 5%. Over the next 3 years I expect it to be closer to 8% again(and very possibly higher later on). Recession within three years(I'm being generous, it could very well be a year away). Get the popcorn cause we're about to watch one hell of a show.

[Jacque67 7,328]

I think it's time for an update! No?

Since this post was written the S&P has indeed risen! In two months...a whole of...1.3%! On track so far and as expected. It's crucial to remember that while the index itself is slightly higher, more and more stocks are actually NOT participating in this trend, and it is being carried by very few selective stocks. It's what I call the silent crash, which always preludes the real loud one. The one that nobody notices till it happens because they don't pay attention to the internals.

Well, since this post was written the S&P has also risen. In more than 3 months...by...*drum roll*...1.2%!

So, here is my take:

We're in a distribution phase which may or may not be already over with the May 20 intraday high. More and more stocks are "peeling off"...less and less of them making new highs. More divergences are showing up. The bottom line is - Unemployment rate is either done dropping, or will be done once it dips under 5%. Over the next 3 years I expect it to be closer to 8% again(and very possibly higher later on). Recession within three years(I'm being generous, it could very well be a year away). Get the popcorn cause we're about to watch one hell of a show.

So just how rich are you?

Any pics appreciated;)

Edited June 14, 2015 by Jacque67