US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

[OriZ 3,157]

Don't you see this as a global thing? Take a look at 2007-8 for instance, most markets moved in tandem. Decoupling is over. In deflation everyone moves together. So I don't really see a way that the US market goes down but Europe and Asia go up or that the US and Europe go down but Asia decouples. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think the only way Asia will be up is if global markets(the US included are). Even in the last 7 years, pull up a chart of the NYSE composite next to a chart of the Indonesian market. Up and down together for the most part.

I would advise against it. But...your call.

Good luck!

[Expat1 971]

Don't you see this as a global thing? Take a look at 2007-8 for instance, most markets moved in tandem. Decoupling is over. In deflation everyone moves together. So I don't really see a way that the US market goes down but Europe and Asia go up or that the US and Europe go down but Asia decouples. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think the only way Asia will be up is if global markets(the US included are). Even in the last 7 years, pull up a chart of the NYSE composite next to a chart of the Indonesian market. Up and down together for the most part.

I would advise against it. But...your call.

Good luck!

Definitely the next Asia / EM rise will be after the next US correction but the majority of the outflows have already happened so the majority of the downside risk, after the fall bloodbath, has already been absorbed. The next US correction is upon us, sort of like it was upon us last spring but didn't hit until August.

I am looking for the double-dip gain from both the stabilizing/rising currency and the rising market. Most of the money I have made in EM back to the early 90's, in and out, has been in a cycle just like this.

All-in means this one Indonesian account, a very small percentage of overall assets (In fact it would be <10% of overall "banked cash" excluding everything else laying around) and it really just started as a stash in case we had to bail here and live there for a few months. It's just nice that the dollar-based value is already up about 8% and all I did was get things started by converting it to IDR.

But hey I hit the gold store for 20-30 g every month too, and that isn't sexy right now either.

Edited November 25, 2015 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

You'll make money in gold.

The rest like I said I disagree but they that's what makes a market!

What's the reason you're there and not in Indonesia or the US for that matter, if you don't mind me asking?

[Expat1 971]

You'll make money in gold.

The rest like I said I disagree but they that's what makes a market!

What's the reason you're there and not in Indonesia or the US for that matter, if you don't mind me asking?

$

[OriZ 3,157]

Gotcha. Any chance/plans of returning any time in the near future?

The reason I ask is because my wife was in a similar situation albeit in Israel which I would assume was easier for her and less of a culture shock than Saudi would be. But even still, and as much as she enjoyed getting to see all the places, she missed home, and couldn't wait to go back. The day the visa was approved and we knew everything was set was a really happy day for her.

I'd probably fear for my life to write some of the things you've written here lately when who knows - someone could be watching. And well you said it best yourself what happens to some peeps there. You're a brave guy.

[OriZ 3,157]

So looks like not only the call for gas to drop under $3 a gallon(at a time when everyone thought it was going over $5) came true but now also the call for under $2 from a year ago seems to be coming along nicely.

Next call - it's almost done.

[Teddy B 17,252]

So looks like not only the call for gas to drop under $3 a gallon(at a time when everyone thought it was going over $5) came true but now also the call for under $2 from a year ago seems to be coming along nicely.

Next call - it's almost done.

Gas already dipped under two dollars a gal a couple months ago, it's now worked it's way back up over $2. Predicting the past is easy.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Gas already dipped under two dollars a gal a couple months ago, it's now worked it's way back up over $2. Predicting the past is easy.

1.75 or so here

[TBoneTX 45,273]

Several posts have been removed for bickering, which will please stop now.

[OriZ 3,157]

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/519732-obama-drops-oil-prices/?p=7920625

There how's that. Sheesh.

And I was talking about the national average obviously. Not a few places here n there.

Edited December 4, 2015 by OriZ

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/519732-obama-drops-oil-prices/?p=7920625

There how's that. Sheesh.

And I was talking about the national average obviously. Not a few places here n there.

I aplogize for calling you a financial god, little g. I meant it as a compliment but evidently it was a no no. ??

[OriZ 3,157]

I aplogize for calling you a financial god, little g. I meant it as a compliment but evidently it was a no no. ??

I guess so but thanks for the compliment LOL.

No I am not a financial god and don't pretend to be. I've made plenty of mistakes in this market in my first years but learned from them. Did my research. Spent literally 35,000 hours to date between watching it/trading/studying it. Have a good system in hand now and a good "tool box". I enjoy every minute of it.

[Expat1 971]

I guess so but thanks for the compliment LOL.

No I am not a financial god and don't pretend to be. I've made plenty of mistakes in this market in my first years but learned from them. Did my research. Spent literally 35,000 hours to date between watching it/trading/studying it. Have a good system in hand now and a good "tool box". I enjoy every minute of it.

I'm out, on yesterday's rally. All of it.

The "market health" box I want to see, any 2 out of 3:

Shiller under 20, cap to gdp under 1.0, AND minimum .5% dividend yield premium over 10-yr. I bought the dip in August because the Dow and S&P roughly approached that box but it's right back to where it was when I sold last spring.

I made 11.2% overall for the year, and that by far beat every "professionally managed" fund on my list of choices. Many of them are slightly down for the year. I was only in the market from Jan-April and from Aug-Dec.

So no worries from my side, don't even have to look at it for awhile.

[OriZ 3,157]

I'm out, on yesterday's rally. All of it.

The "market health" box I want to see, any 2 out of 3:

Shiller under 20, cap to gdp under 1.0, AND minimum .5% dividend yield premium over 10-yr. I bought the dip in August because the Dow and S&P roughly approached that box but it's right back to where it was when I sold last spring.

I made 11.2% overall for the year, and that by far beat every "professionally managed" fund on my list of choices. Many of them are slightly down for the year. I was only in the market from Jan-April and from Aug-Dec.

So no worries from my side, don't even have to look at it for awhile.

So you're basically saying you're only expecting another 10-15% drop in this market for you to consider it healthy and worthy of investing, or, at the very least trading long in? I think you're being very kind to it. I still insist that my work suggests it will be more like 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. Basically by any(reliable) measure the market today is worse off than it was before any top in history(including 1929 and 1987) other than 2000. So if we want to equal the environment of 2000 or even beat that we can go higher from here, but the chances of that happening are very slim. I also find the fact that the S&P500 is only 2% from its all time high yet only 37%(according to my own measures) of individual stocks in the broad market are in an uptrend to be very telling. A healthy market should have a number of 60% or higher. Leadership is very narrow.

Edited December 5, 2015 by OriZ

[Expat1 971]

So you're basically saying you're only expecting another 10-15% drop in this market for you to consider it healthy and worthy of investing, or, at the very least trading long in? I think you're being very kind to it. I still insist that my work suggests it will be more like 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. Basically by any(reliable) measure the market today is worse off than it was before any top in history(including 1929 and 1987) other than 2000. So if we want to equal the environment of 2000 or even beat that we can go higher from here, but the chances of that happening are very slim. I also find the fact that the S&P500 is only 2% from its all time high yet only 37%(according to my own measures) of individual stocks in the broad market are in an uptrend to be very telling. A healthy market should have a number of 60% or higher. Leadership is very narrow.

It is true that I broke my own rules in the fall but I was hoping to see a boost in the denominators of both metrics over the fall, indicative of an expanding economy, that would show improvement in the overall value.

That didn't happen.

Market cap to GDP (today's numbers) is 121% of what I feel to be a minimum investment worthy value box, and Shiller (todays numbers) is 132% of what I feel to be a minimum investment worthy value box of the overall market. That's not 10-15%, it's 20-30%.

10-15% drop isn't even worth a look, not in this market. PE on the Russell is over 100. That's an insanely stupid place to put money. I believe small-caps are going to fall and fall hard probably during first or second quarter earnings season.

Edited December 5, 2015 by Expat1