US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

[Teddy B 17,252]

Yup when we offer zero percent, it is usally in lieu of using dealer cash money back. Now the customer does not always know that , but you can always get a better sale price by financing at normal intrest rates, which for tier one is usally 1.75 to 2 %.

Buying a vehicle is a whole different ball game from most anything else.

[GandD 5,966]

Buying a vehicle is a whole different ball game from most anything else.

Electronics are typically pretty cheap. Big ticket items like cars/furniture/houses are all that way.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Electronics are typically pretty cheap. Big ticket items like cars/furniture/houses are all that way.

Yup

[Teddy B 17,252]

Electronics are typically pretty cheap. Big ticket items like cars/furniture/houses are all that way.

Their are more ins and outs and hidden add ins when purchasing a vehicle than anything else you'll ever buy, it's a completely different set up from other items. You're not going to sit down in a furniture store with a salesman and haggle over a price unless maybe you're paying cash, (which I've never heard of being done until you said it today), or you're buying a very substantial amount of furniture and can work out a deal. I'm not sure what you mean about houses. The only thing you can do when purchasing a house is haggle the selling price, but with the market the way it is now, a lot of houses are going for over the asking price.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Their are more ins and outs and hidden add ins when purchasing a vehicle than anything else you'll ever buy, it's a completely different set up from other items. You're not going to sit down in a furniture store with a salesman and haggle over a price unless maybe you're paying cash, (which I've never heard of being done until you said it today), or you're buying a very substantial amount of furniture and can work out a deal. I'm not sure what you mean about houses. The only thing you can do when purchasing a house is haggle the selling price, but with the market the way it is now, a lot of houses are going for over the asking price.

I always haggle over furniture. The only differance in furniture and cars is there is way more mark up in furniture.

[GandD 5,966]

Way more. Furniture salesmen are the worse. Used car sales right there with them. New cars aren't that bad. They can't really mark it up that much.

[OriZ 3,157]

Not really. Stocks are rarely a bad investment, provided you do your homework, and find out what you're actually investing in.

The stock market is not a short term proposal, nor is it a way to make a quick buck. You're better off hitting the tables in Vegas for that purpose.

I find trading the stock market to be quite profitable...

Regardless, during completion of market cycles, even stock picking rarely works, unless you're extremely lucky. Very few umbrellas to protect from the rain.

The following are the most reliable valuation measures(courtesy of John Hussman) -

Shiller P/E: -84.7% correlation with actual subsequent 12-year S&P 500 total returns

Tobin’s Q: -84.6% correlation

Nonfinancial market capitalization/GDP: -87.6%

Margin-adjusted forward operating P/E: -90.7%

Margin-adjusted CAPE: -90.7%

Nonfinancial market capitalization/GVA: -91.9%

Tobin’s Q and the Shiller P/E are currently the least extreme relative to their pre bubble historical norms(75.5% and 99.6% overvalued, respectively), but they are also not as reliable as the other measures. Interestingly, market capitalization to GDP(which Warren Buffett once cited in a 2001 Fortune interview as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”) is the most extreme among these, at more than 145% above its pre bubble norm, implying a 59% market drop simply to restore that norm — not even to move to historical undervaluation. The correlation of Market Cap/GDP with subsequent 12-year S&P 500 returns since 1980 (capturing multiple recent market cycles) is even stronger at -93.0%.

As far as the most reliable measure, MarketCap/GVA is about 128% above its pre bubble norm, and implies negative 10-year S&P 500 nominal total returns, with expected 12-year S&P 500 nominal total returns averaging only about 1% annually, with steep intermediate losses followed by a sharp recovery, similar to that of 1995-2000, 2003-2007, or 2009-2015 that Obama gets credit for around here...this is simply how cycles are completed and how they begin.

That has been the most typical path historically: a major bear market loss, followed by a long period of reasonably positive average returns that recover the loss over time. For example, either of the following possible outcomes would result in a 12-year total return just over 1% annually: a) a -47% market loss over 2 years, followed by a 10-year period in which the S&P 500 achieves a positive total return of 8% annually, or b) a -55% market loss over 2 years, followed by a 10-year period over which the S&P 500 achieves a positive total return of 10% annually. The reason I used those particular figures is that they correspond to the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 collapses.

Putting new money into stocks at current levels? Insanity.

Edited November 24, 2015 by OriZ

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Way more. Furniture salesmen are the worse. Used car sales right there with them. New cars aren't that bad. They can't really mark it up that much.

And these days you can't really make a lot on used cars. At least on traditional lots that use conventional finance methods.

[Teddy B 17,252]

I always haggle over furniture. The only differance in furniture and cars is there is way more mark up in furniture.

Way more. Furniture salesmen are the worse. Used car sales right there with them. New cars aren't that bad. They can't really mark it up that much.

I've honestly never heard of haggling for furniture and I know some of the cheapest peeps around. So how effective is it? What would you expect to save with haggling on a $1200 sofa for example?

[GandD 5,966]

I've honestly never heard of haggling for furniture and I know some of the cheapest peeps around. So how effective is it? What would you expect to save with haggling on a $1200 sofa for example?

$200 is what I would expect. That's not to say it will happen. Depends on the salesperson, if you special order, how long its been sitting there, blah blah.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

$200 is what I would expect. That's not to say it will happen. Depends on the salesperson, if you special order, how long its been sitting there, blah blah.

Same as cars. Furniture has the highest mark up going.

[TBoneTX 45,663]

Mrs. T-B. & I have had our best luck with Craigslist and similar groups -- like-new, big-name furniture from people who are moving, downsizing, etc., at a minuscule fraction of retail prices. I can't foresee our ever buying retail, unless perhaps a store is closing and everything is marked down 90%. Even then, it's a matter of "90% off of what price."

[Expat1 971]

Why do you think the dollar HAS to go down? I've been hearing that for 7 years from the hyperinflation camp whereas I have been in the deflation camp which has so far been right. I don't think the greenback's done. Too much debt has to implode. Be careful with that one man.

I do not believe that this is sustainable and when it corrects I believe the best place to be to take advantage of that correction is in the Asian markets

[OriZ 3,157]

I do not believe that this is sustainable and when it corrects I believe the best place to be to take advantage of that correction is in the Asian markets

I have to respectfully disagree with the premise as I believe the dollar rally is not over yet(that's not to say it can't correct short term), however, even assuming it is not sustainable as you say, why not just short the dollar or buy the Euro(they normally have negative correlation)? Asian markets are gonna drop like a rock. Just my opinion.

Edited November 24, 2015 by OriZ

[Expat1 971]

I have to respectfully disagree with the premise as I believe the dollar rally is not over yet(that's not to say it can't correct short term), however, even assuming it is not sustainable as you say, why not just short the dollar or buy the Euro(they normally have negative correlation)? Asian markets are gonna drop like a rock. Just my opinion.

They already dropped but I agree that an interest rate hike in the US is going to test that support.

I flipped our Indonesian USD account to IDR way up there at 14500 IDR to the dollar, another August move. It's at 13700/USD and earning 6.5%. Flip cost me 1%.

I'm waiting for the markets there to stabilize and I'm going all in to the Jakarta exchange. One of the fastest-growing economies in the region.