US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

[Rob L 3,811]

?? reported

Portfolio of a bunch of stuff managed

Prior to 2015, I was seeing 25 % returns 2009 - 2014

[GandD 5,966]

It's a zombie thread. The topic was started two years ago. It just won't die.

I'm inclined to let it ride.

[X Factor 1,112]

Don't rush into it. They have much much much lower to go. Talking about the general market. Oil is much closer to a bottom.

Jacque I already said what to do months ago...

RUN.

Or short. Like me.

I was short the 2 nd week of August. Had my best month of trading in August and September. Just treading water in October

[Dakine10 5,452]

I'm inclined to let it ride.

It's got a few more years of life I guess. It's strange to have a current topic where half the posters are no longer forum members.

I suggest we consider changing the title when a new president is elected or when a major recession hits. It will help avoid confusion.

[Rob L 3,811]

It's got a few more years of life I guess. It's strange to have a current topic where half the posters are no longer forum members.

I suggest we consider changing the title when a new president is elected or when a major recession hits. It will help avoid confusion.

This thread is safe then

1. Obama has sealed a deal to stay Muslim Caliph-in-Chief en perpetuity

2. Regardless of what you think see in the stock market recovery and unemployment rates we are in a perpetual state of economic siege and recession with illegal immigrants and China calling the shots because they lend us money. The smart money is on bomb shelters, dehydrated food and compound bows.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

It's got a few more years of life I guess. It's strange to have a current topic where half the posters are no longer forum members.

I suggest we consider changing the title when a new president is elected or when a major recession hits. It will help avoid confusion.

1/2.. More than that --They finally did it LOL

[GandD 5,966]

On a long enough time span, a recession will always happen. Wait for automotive sales to decline before you start crying gloom and doom.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

On a long enough time span, a recession will always happen. Wait for automotive sales to decline before you start crying gloom and doom.

Automotive sales do not need to go done. I have learned a lot in one year. Our new Scion IA is selling like hot cakes

On a long enough time span, a recession will always happen. Wait for automotive sales to decline before you start crying gloom and doom.

Automotive sales do not need to go done. I have learned a lot in one year. Our new Scion IA is selling like hot cakes

[Expat1 971]

Its too late unless you have been holding cash.

I sold all my oil related stocks late last year haven't reinvested it. Same for my 401k. I have about 4 months of contributions sitting in cash. I will be buying on this dip, but probably not right away.

Whoever sold me all that chevron stock at 76 bucks really gave me a gift - LOL

[Expat1 971]

Ooookay...so due to popular demand(I just called Expat popular), here's an update!

First, some quotes, with updates in them.

So, the answer is yes, I am still shorting. Watching the recent bounce which looks very much like a correction rather than a return to an uptrend however as I have written above I am open to other scenarios. Important to note my trend short trade is completely separate to more intraday trading I do on 3, 5, 15, 30 and 60 minute time frames in which I often change positions several times a week or even a day, so even in an uptrend there is plenty of profit for me to take.

As far as gold goes -

First, lets start with Oil, as we have seen uniformity in most commodities and currencies and metals. Back when Oil was over $100 I wrote it would be going down and was shorting it. I wrote in this forum in late 2014 when oil was under $60 already that I am now moving to neutral on oil. Since then for almost a year now we have seen a range in oil between $40-60. Right now I am still neutral.

USD - I was the exact opposite on the dollar for the longest time IE Bullish, all through 2014 and all the way up to 95. I have then announced, in here agin, that I exited those positions and am neutral. I am still neutral.

So now gold - Gold has been the elusive one for me. I was bearish on it at the same time I was on oil - great call, gold went down from over 1,800 to under 1,200. Then around the same time as I exited my short oil, same with gold. Only here, I've been expecting for the better part of the last 6-10 months to see gold go up. It has so far defied. However, I still think a reasonable target medium term is 1,400. Would I go long on gold right now? Not necessarily. But I sure the hell would NOT short it.

I'm in, as of Aug, about 55%, rest still in cash.

Bought in on both dip days. Large-cap only.

Couple weeks ago dropped a handful into two EM market funds, I think their currencies bottomed.

Carrying a thousand shares of chevron, but I'm selling at 92 bucks, then that will be in cash as well

[Jacque67 7,328]

Thanx Hollywood.

[OriZ 3,157]

I'm in, as of Aug, about 55%, rest still in cash.

Bought in on both dip days. Large-cap only.

Couple weeks ago dropped a handful into two EM market funds, I think their currencies bottomed.

Carrying a thousand shares of chevron, but I'm selling at 92 bucks, then that will be in cash as well

That doesn't surprise me, as there is definitely across the board a narrow focus on big cap stocks only. The secondary indexes have not rallied to the extent that the big caps have - which is always a bad sign for an unhealthy market.

I would be careful. Like I said I don't exclude a possibility the market could go a little higher, but the risk/reward is not really there. A tiny bit higher compared with alot lower. Hmmm. I would definitely take some profit.

Edited October 24, 2015 by OriZ

[Expat1 971]

That doesn't surprise me, as there is definitely across the board a narrow focus on big cap stocks only. The secondary indexes have not rallied to the extent that the big caps have - which is always a bad sign for an unhealthy market.

I would be careful. Like I said I don't exclude a possibility the market could go a little higher, but the risk/reward is not really there. A tiny bit higher compared with alot lower. Hmmm. I would definitely take some profit.

I took the profits back in late spring LOL. All of it. Now it's a game between dip-buyers and rally-sellers and from my side the majority (but not all) of the smart money is in cash.

I believe that the reason for the focus on large-cap is because PE's aren't bad and I believe that at the current interest rates a 3-4% dividend return might have to be settled for in the short term. I saw something about PE's being 70, 80 on the Russell? Might as well take half of what you have, write a cashier's check for that amount made out to "wall street", and burn it.

Update: Chevron is "dumped". 75 bucks though is just about book value of their assets so that wasn't really a gamble. People selling chevron in the 70's back in august were stupid, stupid investors. Sheep in a panic are asking to be sheared, and that was some of the quickest, easiest money I ever made.

Edited October 24, 2015 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

From my perspective Chevron will be even lower than August eventually. It will just take some time for all this to play out.

Normally what happens is around tops there is more focus on large caps and the small caps start declining first. It is one of the(many) signs usually present as well as in the current situation.

Near bottoms the opposite happens - You will see large caps still falling but divergences will start to occur with small caps recovering first. Again, that's going to be a sign of a bottom.

In my view right now we are still at, right before or right after a HUGE topping process.

[X Factor 1,112]

In my view right now we are still at, right before or right after a HUGE topping process.

Looks like it but can't tell accurately until after the fact. You always have to know where you are in the cycle. It takes a while to tell. But the types of stocks hitting new 52 week high gives a clue.

https://www.fidelity.com.hk/investor/en/learn-about-investing/learn-about-economy-investing/Understanding-economic-cycle-markets.page