US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

[Jacque67 7,328]

Hmmm. Thanks for nothing..

[Teddy B 17,252]

[Sousuke 1,214]

Hmmm. Thanks for nothing..

Its too late unless you have been holding cash.

I sold all my oil related stocks late last year haven't reinvested it. Same for my 401k. I have about 4 months of contributions sitting in cash. I will be buying on this dip, but probably not right away.

[Jacque67 7,328]

It's in escrow

Damn lawyers....

Its too late unless you have been holding cash.

I sold all my oil related stocks late last year haven't reinvested it. Same for my 401k. I have about 4 months of contributions sitting in cash. I will be buying on this dip, but probably not right away.

More helpful than oriz and vol. cheers.

[Sousuke 1,214]

It's in escrow

Damn lawyers....

More helpful than oriz and vol. cheers.

I suspect they are doing more complicated trading. I just buy mutual funds and occasional stocks.

[OriZ 3,157]

Its too late unless you have been holding cash.

I sold all my oil related stocks late last year haven't reinvested it. Same for my 401k. I have about 4 months of contributions sitting in cash. I will be buying on this dip, but probably not right away.

Don't rush into it. They have much much much lower to go. Talking about the general market. Oil is much closer to a bottom.

Jacque I already said what to do months ago...

RUN.

Or short. Like me.

Edited August 21, 2015 by OriZ

[OriZ 3,157]

Ooookay...so due to popular demand(I just called Expat popular), here's an update!

First, some quotes, with updates in them.

1. The market is in a very tiring uptrend and is on the verge of another trend change

yes it was very tired and as we all know ended up declining.

2. That trend change has not yet happened as long as certain criteria is met for me - among those - a break of the Oct 2014 lows.

While the Dow indeed did that, I would prefer to wait for confirmation through the S&P.

3. Unemployment will not go much lower than 5% if it even does that, before it goes back up above 8%.

Yup, still think so.

4. There will be another recession before this decade comes to an end, probably even more severe than the last one.

Being generous there and I believe there is a good chance it will be in 2016.

5. While I can not definitively tell you right now when exactly such recession shall begin, I WILL be able to do that once my requirements for a market top are met. So that will be as real time as it gets.

Soon.

6. Those requirements will be met NO MORE than 10% off the top of the market.

Decline was more but as we all know now we're back to less than 5% off the top.

7. Once that happens, the market WILL decline an additional 40% AT LEAST.

Sure will.

8. I am shorting the market already, with an expectation for a 40-50% decline FROM CURRENT LEVELS. However, it could still creep up for a while longer if it wants to, bu the return will be no more than another 10% on the upside from current levels, which will be ADDED to the total losses in the end so basically not worth the risk.

No change there except for it's not even creeping up anymore. But I'm open to further advance which will not change my position.

9. As far as point 8 is concerned, if you want to know when that will change look to points 5 and 6.

10. I basically wrote all the above several months ago already and indeed since then the market has gone mainly sideways with a ~1% gain.

1. Almost a full one and a half year ago I mentioned here that S&P going above 1815 it would be good to go as long as it remains above. And a few days later it did that. That was very early in 2014. Twice since then it tested and remained above.

And guess where the latest decline ended? 1867. So, like I said looking for confirmation of the Dow break through S&P decline under 1800.

2. Even when looking at the 1% I just mentioned in the other post, or any of the gains of pretty much the past year for that matter, one has to keep in mind that as I said it is being made with less and less stocks participating, so chances are many people invested in the market unless it is an ETF following the major index did not actually get to enjoy those gains and may actually have already lost.

Since I wrote this things have only gotten worse. Internal measures of Breadth suck. Trend uniformity sucks. This is a two tiered market and so long as it stays this way it is bad news. Fractured markets are very unhealthy markets.

3. As far as the 3 years mentioned above, I still think the highest probability is within a year, but open minded enough to acknowledge that due to all the resisting forces, it could take as long as 3 tops, however not any longer than that in any scenario.

No change there.

4. The market will have an avg annual return of ZERO for the next decade, when in the short-medium term it will decline significantly.

No change there.

5. We will revisit in 5 years and see if I was wrong or right on any of my 15 points.

So, the answer is yes, I am still shorting. Watching the recent bounce which looks very much like a correction rather than a return to an uptrend however as I have written above I am open to other scenarios. Important to note my trend short trade is completely separate to more intraday trading I do on 3, 5, 15, 30 and 60 minute time frames in which I often change positions several times a week or even a day, so even in an uptrend there is plenty of profit for me to take.

As far as gold goes -

First, lets start with Oil, as we have seen uniformity in most commodities and currencies and metals. Back when Oil was over $100 I wrote it would be going down and was shorting it. I wrote in this forum in late 2014 when oil was under $60 already that I am now moving to neutral on oil. Since then for almost a year now we have seen a range in oil between $40-60. Right now I am still neutral.

USD - I was the exact opposite on the dollar for the longest time IE Bullish, all through 2014 and all the way up to 95. I have then announced, in here agin, that I exited those positions and am neutral. I am still neutral.

So now gold - Gold has been the elusive one for me. I was bearish on it at the same time I was on oil - great call, gold went down from over 1,800 to under 1,200. Then around the same time as I exited my short oil, same with gold. Only here, I've been expecting for the better part of the last 6-10 months to see gold go up. It has so far defied. However, I still think a reasonable target medium term is 1,400. Would I go long on gold right now? Not necessarily. But I sure the hell would NOT short it.

[Dakine10 5,452]

Would I go long on gold right now? Not necessarily. But I sure the hell would NOT short it.

Hmmm. I'm glad that was free advice.

[OriZ 3,157]

Hmmm. I'm glad that was free advice.

Well it might not help you know if you should buy gold or not(although I would probably nibble at it even if it will eventually go down a little more, current levels are a decent starting point to add to later). But it would certainly help a potential trader(although I doubt one exists here) to NOT get burned trying to short it. Sooo...

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

I got 20K that evaporated says that ain't so

[Teddy B 17,252]

US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

I got 20K that evaporated says that ain't so

That was Bush's fault.

[Dakine10 5,452]

US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

I got 20K that evaporated says that ain't so

It's a zombie thread. The topic was started two years ago. It just won't die.

[Rob L 3,811]

US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

I got 20K that evaporated says that ain't so

What did you invest in?

[Teddy B 17,252]

What did you invest in?

Spellcheck

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Spellcheck

?? reported

What did you invest in?

Portfolio of a bunch of stuff managed