US Stock Markets Continue To Reach Record Highs- Thanks Obama!

[GandD 5,966]

I think it's time for an update! No?

Since this post was written the S&P has indeed risen! In two months...a whole of...1.3%! On track so far and as expected. It's crucial to remember that while the index itself is slightly higher, more and more stocks are actually NOT participating in this trend, and it is being carried by very few selective stocks. It's what I call the silent crash, which always preludes the real loud one. The one that nobody notices till it happens because they don't pay attention to the internals.

Well, since this post was written the S&P has also risen. In more than 3 months...by...*drum roll*...1.2%!

So, here is my take:

We're in a distribution phase which may or may not be already over with the May 20 intraday high. More and more stocks are "peeling off"...less and less of them making new highs. More divergences are showing up. The bottom line is - Unemployment rate is either done dropping, or will be done once it dips under 5%. Over the next 3 years I expect it to be closer to 8% again(and very possibly higher later on). Recession within three years(I'm being generous, it could very well be a year away). Get the popcorn cause we're about to watch one hell of a show.

So, if there isn't a recession in the next three years we get to say you were wrong? Or is it a year? It's hard to be wrong the way you frame it.

[OriZ 3,157]

You get to say I'm wrong when I'm wrong. The market is dynamic, life is dynamic, things evolve and change. Which is why I make sure to update on what I'm thinking so no one can come later on and base their opinion of what I said on something I may have thought in the past. I've been very clear several times on a few points;

1. The market is in a very tiring uptrend and is on the verge of another trend change

2. That trend change has not yet happened as long as certain criteria is met for me - among those - a break of the Oct 2014 lows.

3. Unemployment will not go much lower than 5% if it even does that, before it goes back up above 8%.

4. There will be another recession before this decade comes to an end, probably even more severe than the last one.

5. While I can not definitively tell you right now when exactly such recession shall begin, I WILL be able to do that once my requirements for a market top are met. So that will be as real time as it gets.

6. Those requirements will be met NO MORE than 10% off the top of the market.

7. Once that happens, the market WILL decline an additional 40% AT LEAST.

8. I am shorting the market already, with an expectation for a 40-50% decline FROM CURRENT LEVELS. However, it could still creep up for a while longer if it wants to, bu the return will be no more than another 10% on the upside from current levels, which will be ADDED to the total losses in the end so basically not worth the risk.

9. As far as point 8 is concerned, if you want to know when that will change look to points 5 and 6.

10. I basically wrote all the above several months ago already and indeed since then the market has gone mainly sideways with a ~1% gain.

Edited June 14, 2015 by OriZ

[Teddy B 17,252]

You get to say I'm wrong when I'm wrong. The market is dynamic, life is dynamic, things evolve and change. Which is why I make sure to update on what I'm thinking so no one can come later on and base their opinion of what I said on something I may have thought in the past. I've been very clear several times on a few points;

So as the market changes you make adjustments. You're a freakin genius!

Why do you feel the need to continuously brag about your market expertise to a buch of anonymous folks on an immigration site? A financial site maybe I could understand, but even that would be silly. But bragging on an immigration site about your financial prowess? Doesn't look too good on ya, if you know what I mean. If you are as good as you claim, one would think your calendar would be pretty full and you wouldn't have time for such foolishness. But that's just me.

I hear cow chip futures are on the rise!!

Edited June 15, 2015 by Teddy B

[Jacque67 7,328]

So as the market changes you make adjustments. You're a freakin genius!

Why do you feel the need to continuously brag about your market expertise to a buch of anonymous folks on an immigration site? A financial site maybe I could understand, but even that would be silly. But bragging on an immigration site about your financial prowess? Doesn't look too good on ya, if you know what I mean. If you are as good as you claim, one would think your calendar would be pretty full and you wouldn't have time for such foolishness. But that's just me.

I hear cow chip futures are on the rise!!

Kinda like people with their boring blogs trying to appear ever so creative/unique...

[Teddy B 17,252]

Kinda like people with their boring blogs trying to appear ever so creative/unique...

There's only one person who ever had a blog that I considered creative and unique and she used to post here. Her name is Julie, aka "Joyce" aka "Empress Of Groovy"! She has an imagination that just won't quit and she posts some of the best stuff I've ever read. She did most of her posting before I found VJ, but I've read a lot of her older posts and find myself laughing non-stop. She's very entertaining! Rumor has it she was once a fellow Masshole as well.

[Jacque67 7,328]

There's only one person who ever had a blog that I considered creative and unique and she used to post here. Her name is Julie, aka "Joyce" aka "Empress Of Groovy"! She has an imagination that just won't quit and she posts some of the best stuff I've ever read. She did most of her posting before I found VJ, but I've read a lot of her older posts and find myself laughing non-stop. She's very entertaining! Rumor has it she was once a fellow Masshole as well.

Cheers. Will try to check it out.

[Teddy B 17,252]

Cheers. Will try to check it out.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/101337-dear-joyce/

[OriZ 3,157]

On this positive note I would like to point out a few more points:

1. Almost a full one and a half year ago I mentioned here that S&P going above 1815 it would be good to go as long as it remains above. And a few days later it did that. That was very early in 2014. Twice since then it tested and remained above.

2. Even when looking at the 1% I just mentioned in the other post, or any of the gains of pretty much the past year for that matter, one has to keep in mind that as I said it is being made with less and less stocks participating, so chances are many people invested in the market unless it is an ETF following the major index did not actually get to enjoy those gains and may actually have already lost.

3. As far as the 3 years mentioned above, I still think the highest probability is within a year, but open minded enough to acknowledge that due to all the resisting forces, it could take as long as 3 tops, however not any longer than that in any scenario.

4. The market will have an avg annual return of ZERO for the next decade, when in the short-medium term it will decline significantly.

5. We will revisit in 5 years and see if I was wrong or right on any of my 15 points.

[Teddy B 17,252]

On this positive note I would like to point out a few more points:

1. Almost a full one and a half year ago I mentioned here that S&P going above 1815 it would be good to go as long as it remains above. And a few days later it did that. That was very early in 2014. Twice since then it tested and remained above.

2. Even when looking at the 1% I just mentioned in the other post, or any of the gains of pretty much the past year for that matter, one has to keep in mind that as I said it is being made with less and less stocks participating, so chances are many people invested in the market unless it is an ETF following the major index did not actually get to enjoy those gains and may actually have already lost.

3. As far as the 3 years mentioned above, I still think the highest probability is within a year, but open minded enough to acknowledge that due to all the resisting forces, it could take as long as 3 tops, however not any longer than that in any scenario.

4. The market will have an avg annual return of ZERO for the next decade, when in the short-medium term it will decline significantly.

5. We will revisit in 5 years and see if I was wrong or right on any of my 15 points.

[Jacque67 7,328]

Got it. Not a blog but a bog!

[OriZ 3,157]

You really should not do that to your money. Maybe it's time you listened to me. Anyone who doesn't is going to regret it a few short years from now.

[Expat1 971]

PE ratio is climbing, but doesn't look all that high. Historically anyway.Shill

Shiller P/E and cap to GDP are both excessive. It's coming down, just a matter of time. I'm out, so I believe I'll sit on the sidelines for awhile and watch the fun.

Edited June 17, 2015 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

Shiller P/E and cap to GDP are both excessive. It's coming down, just a matter of time. I'm out, so I believe I'll sit on the sidelines for awhile and watch the fun.

That would be the sensible thing to do at this point. Unless you have a 20+ year time horizon and really don't care what happens inbetween.

[OriZ 3,157]

It's go time.

[Jacque67 7,328]

So what should I do?