China’s Arunachal Pradesh Fixation

[mota bhai 2,675]

By Aakriti Bachhawat
December 16, 2013

China has been stepping up claims to territories abutting its borders, land, sea and now air. One of the more recent additions to its interests is Arunachal Pradesh, a northeast Indian state that China recognizes as “South Tibet.” Indian President Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to the state in late November and his speech calling the area an “integral and important part of India” have generated an angry response from Beijing.

...

China’s claims initially extended only to Tawang, a part of Arunachal Pradesh, where the sixth Dalai Lama was said to have been born. Since the 2000s, however, China has been claiming Arunachal Pradesh in its entirety, a surprising claim given that independent India has been exercising sovereignty over it since 1955 (it became a union territory in 1972 and a state in 1987). It is worth noting that China’s stance is directly motivated by its desire to put a lid on Tibetan nationalism (which it believes is fueled by support from India) ... Beijing’s border disputes with India ... represent a wider strategic shift in its thinking ... through which it seeks to revive its ancient glory as the Middle Kingdom.

...

With national elections around the corner and a strong likelihood of a more assertive BJP-led government at the center, provocations from China may begin to elicit more active responses from India in the future.

http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/chinas-arunachal-pradesh-fixation/

[luckytxn 2,265]

India will not allow China to take parts of their country.

[mota bhai 2,675]

India will not allow China to take parts of their country.

India has a track record of allowing the Chinese to do whatever they want.

[luckytxn 2,265]

So you think they will allow China to take an Indian state with no war?

India has a track record of allowing the Chinese to do whatever they want.

Edited December 16, 2013 by luckytxn

[mota bhai 2,675]

So you think they will allow China to take an Indian state with no war?

What do you call a war which the civilian leadership is determined to lose?

Look up the 1962 India-China war. The civilian leadership in New Delhi never gave their own military a fighting chance.

[luckytxn 2,265]

Didn't answer the question as usual.

What do you call a war which the civilian leadership is determined to lose?

Look up the 1962 India-China war. The civilian leadership in New Delhi never gave their own military a fighting chance.

[mota bhai 2,675]

Didn't answer the question as usual.

I kind of did, actually. Sure, there will be a war for the sake of appearances but when the civilian leadership doesn't want you to win, you won't.

[luckytxn 2,265]

You are going back 50 years ago to make this argument? India didn't want to spend money on the military back then. After that war they started spending but to acquire nukes.

As for the civilian leadership they seem to have grown a set since then.

Meanwhile, the Congress-led UPA government in New Delhi is facing severe criticism from the nationalist BJP over India’s meek response to Chinese provocations. With national elections around the corner and a strong likelihood of a more assertive BJP-led government at the center, provocations from China may begin to elicit more active responses from India in the future.

The president is posturing to usurp the Nationalists appeal. I ampretty sure but could be wrong that if China invaded and took an actual Indian statethe people would demand action and the goverment would have no choice but to react. Also from the article it stated that China considers this area strategic as invasion routes.

China is right now setting out their future plans to the world.These are mainly just future goals as they right now can't fight a major war with the U.S. or Russia and survive. As long as India doesn't move troops into that area they will be fine. China will just utter words.

I kind of did, actually. Sure, there will be a war for the sake of appearances but when the civilian leadership doesn't want you to win, you won't.

[mota bhai 2,675]

As for the civilian leadership they seem to have grown a set since then.

How do you explain the way the Chinese incursion into Ladakh played out a few months ago?

India had surveillance equipment on their side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), surveillance equipment which was used to monitor Chinese movements on their side of the LAC.

The Chinese moved in and squatted down on a piece of land on the Indian side. They refused to leave until India dismantled its surveillance equipment.

The Indian media went waaaah, the population demanded action and the Indian government sent its foreign minister to Beijing.

Mr. Foreign Minister came back with a deal. India would dismantle its surveillance equipment and the Chinese would go back to their side (this is a BIG reason the current government is going to lose the next election).

What does that say about the Indian leadership having grown a set?

Edited December 16, 2013 by mota bhai

[luckytxn 2,265]

Sounds like the leaders were trying to avert war over nothing really. I still want to know if you think India would go to war if China takes and annexes an actual Indian state. Little skirmishes along ill defined borders are usual among 2nd rate military powers.

How do you explain the way the Chinese incursion into Ladakh played out a few months ago?

India had surveillance equipment on their side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), surveillance equipment which was used to monitor Chinese movements on their side of the LAC.

The Chinese moved in and squatted down on a piece of land on the Indian side. They refused to leave until India dismantled its surveillance equipment.

The Indian media went waaaah, the population demanded action and the Indian government sent its foreign minister to Beijing.

Mr. Foreign Minister came back with a deal. India would dismantle its surveillance equipment and the Chinese would go back to their side (this is a BIG reason the current government is going to lose the next election).

What does that say about the Indian leadership having grown a set?

[mota bhai 2,675]

Sounds like the leaders were trying to avert war over nothing really. I still want to know if you think India would go to war if China takes and annexes an actual Indian state. Little skirmishes along ill defined borders are usual among 2nd rate military powers.

Of course India would make a show of going to war. But will the civilian leadership heed the advice of its military and do what it takes to win? I am doubtful.

[luckytxn 2,265]

I am doubtful too but can't imagine them not going to war when another country invades you. You should know the pulse better than I though. Still to go back 50 years is ridiculous. I saw India buying some nice military hardware a few years ago.

Of course India would make a show of going to war. But will the civilian leadership heed the advice of its military and do what it takes to win? I am doubtful.

[mota bhai 2,675]

I am doubtful too but can't imagine them not going to war when another country invades you. You should know the pulse better than I though. Still to go back 50 years is ridiculous. I saw India buying some nice military hardware a few years ago.

Yeah. A good recent (relatively) example is when the Pakistanis invaded at Kargil. India fought that, hand to hand, high altitude. It was brutal.

But in India the the overriding emotion when it comes to Pakistan is contempt. When it comes to China, fear and respect. People react differently with those they fear and respect.

Time will tell, of course.

[luckytxn 2,265]

I agree this seems to be the case. Pakistan can fart and India wants to go to war.

Personally China would take anything in that area they want. War would be very costly to India when Pakistan is there hating on you. China won't extend themselves there unless India makes them.

Yeah. A good recent (relatively) example is when the Pakistanis invaded at Kargil. India fought that, hand to hand, high altitude. It was brutal.

But in India the the overriding emotion when it comes to Pakistan is contempt. When it comes to China, fear and respect. People react differently with those they fear and respect.

Time will tell, of course.

[mota bhai 2,675]

I agree this seems to be the case. Pakistan can fart and India wants to go to war.

Personally China would take anything in that area they want. War would be very costly to India when Pakistan is there hating on you. China won't extend themselves there unless India makes them.

If India decided to let the Chinese have what they wanted, India would lose a one-third of Kashmir and all the parts of the Indian northeast populated by people who speak languages belonging to the Tibeto-Burman family of languages. That would still leave India with all its major cities and all the states with the largest voting populations. It would be like the U.S. losing Guam and Vermont.

On the other hand, if India decided to let the Pakistanis have what they want, we're looking at a dismemberment of the Indian heartland. A dagger right through the heart. Like the U.S. losing Texas and New York and California. The reverse is also true, by the way. India actively supports secessionists in places like Baluchistan so if India had her way, Pakistan would split into a million little pieces as well.

Edited December 16, 2013 by mota bhai