Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future wars (with India)

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Pakistan army warns of disproportionate response in future wars

Dec 5, 2013 12:12 AM , By Praveen Swami

Pakistans official Army Doctrine calls on the country to invoke disproportionate responses in future wars with India, a copy of the document obtained by The Hindu has revealed. The causes of conflict with the potential to escalate to the use of violence, the classified internal document states, emanate from the unresolved issue of Kashmir, the violation of treaty arrangements on sharing of natural resources, and the organised and deliberate support by external powers to militant organisations.

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Pakistan has accused India of seeking to block its access to Indus waters, and backing terrorism.

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Georgetown University scholar Dr. C. Christine, author of a forthcoming book, Fighting to the End, says the Doctrine confirms what scholars have long known. It tells us several interesting things, she says, among them that the Pakistan army sees Indian military modernisation as a threat, but that they also think nuclear weapons will insulate them from the consequences of pursuing high-risk strategies, like backing jihadist clients.

Future wars, the Doctrine states, will be characterised by high-intensity, high-tempo operations under a relatively transparent battle-space environment. This, it states, is because of the incremental increase in asymmetry of conventional forces and [the] nuclear overhang evident references to the programme of rapid modernisation India put into place after the 2001-2002 crisis, and both countries efforts to expand their nuclear weapons capabilities.

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However, the Doctrine argues, a disparity at the conventional plane continues to grow disproportionately, which too disturbs the strategic equilibrium of the region. This, it states, depletes peaceful diplomacy and dialogue, replacing it with coercion on the upper planes and violence across the lower-ends of the spectrum.

What worries Pakistans army, says the former Indian Army vice-chief, Arvinder Lamba, is their inability to organise offensive or defensive responses to our growing rapid mobilisation capacity. Their challenge is to deter us from striking by threatening nuclear weapons use in the face of the least provocation.

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Lots of this thinking has been operationalised in Pakistans military, says Rana Banerjee, a New Delhi-based expert on the Pakistan army, and former Research and Analysis Wing official.

Basically, this document signals they intend to react to even limited Indian military operations with disproportionate force, and hope fear of escalation deters New Delhi from reacting to events like 26/11.

http://m.thehindu.com/news/national/pakistan-army-warns-of-disproportionate-response-in-future-wars/article5422491.ece/

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