News from AILA (?) conference.

[deleteme 34]

I agree. How can two lawyers at the same conference have such astronomically different predictions regarding processing times? Makes no sense.

It does make sense, as Laurel's last post about the grocery line explains. The processing times vary according to where you are in the line.

Think of it this way:

Guy A delivering files ---------------->Guy B (USCIS) -----------------------> finished

Let's assume that Guy A is delivering files at a steady rate. Guy B (USCIS) is working as fast as Guy A brings files. The wait average is around 90 days to a NOA2 (as per my calculations for NOA1s in Nov, 2012 - Feb, 2013 which I posted on VJ before). But then Guy B works more and more slowly (February-June, 2013). The files brought by Guy A stack up next to Guy B. Those files (our petitions) are basically gathering dust and piling high. Then Guy B starts working faster and faster again (hopefully, Oct, 2013).

Now, if your file was delivered to Guy B in Feb-June, you are part of a big stack, and even though he is working very fast in Oct, your total wait is going to be longer than someone whose file was delivered in Sept.

The point is, that as their adjudication rates change, the wait time of different cohorts of petitioners also changes. Once their adjudication rate is equal or greater than the rate of new deliveries, the wait time for newly delivered files drops.

So, if they do in fact begin to adjudicate more and more rapidly in October and later, then the wait time for filers in Sept-October will be less than the wait times for earlier filers. Which filing period will have the longest wait? By my guess, March-April. I asked Laurel to confirm this in my FB message to her. The VJ I-130 adjudication rate has been basically frozen since they filed.

The key is, when will Overland Park start adjudicating and at how fast a rate? What will be the staffing levels dedicated to I-130 adjudications at Overland Park? I asked Laurel those questions, too.

[Blueberry Pancake 311]

It does make sense, as Laurel's last post about the grocery line explains. The processing times vary according to where you are in the line.

Think of it this way:

Guy A delivering files ---------------->Guy B (USCIS) -----------------------> finished

Let's assume that Guy A is delivering files at a steady rate. Guy B (USCIS) is working as fast as Guy A brings files. The wait average is around 90 days to a NOA2 (as per my calculations for NOA1s in Nov, 2012 - Feb, 2013 which I posted on VJ before). But then Guy B works more and more slowly (February-June, 2013). The files brought by Guy A stack up next to Guy B. Those files (our petitions) are basically gathering dust and piling high. Then Guy B starts working faster and faster again (hopefully, Oct, 2013).

Now, if your file was delivered to Guy B in Feb-June, you are part of a big stack, and even though he is working very fast in Oct, your total wait is going to be longer than someone whose file was delivered in Sept.

The point is, that as their adjudication rates change, the wait time of different cohorts of petitioners also changes. Once their adjudication rate is equal or greater than the rate of new deliveries, the wait time for newly delivered files drops.

So, if they do in fact begin to adjudicate more and more rapidly in October and later, then the wait time for filers in Sept-October will be less than the wait times for earlier filers. Which filing period will have the longest wait? By my guess, March-April. I asked Laurel to confirm this in my FB message to her. The VJ I-130 adjudication rate has been basically frozen since they filed.

The key is, when will Overland Park start adjudicating and at how fast a rate? What will be the staffing levels dedicated to I-130 adjudications at Overland Park? I asked Laurel those questions, too.

Great job, Alaskafan! Thanks for doing this

[JbTin 51]

Oh ok..thanks alaskafan! Please update us if u get more info from Laurel.

[Dfibus 16]

What's about USC filing from abroad the last note listed 60 days processing for them is this still true

[adricas 1]

To file a K-3 does the petitioner has to be in the US ??? With no clear answers or accurate processing times I think the best option we are left with is to file for k-3 ... Anyone has more details about this process ??? For what I understand the processing time is about 5-6 months (better than the year estimate that we have for the I-30) that cost more and that in order to complete the whole process (receive the green card) may take longer at the end are basically the cons but, I personally don't care to wait 2 years or pay more for the green card if I'm already in the States, I'm honestly anxious, desperate and willing to do whatever necessary to get out of this country and go back to the States .. I'm starting to feel that I'm no longer stressed out but sinking into depression If anyone knows anything about this K-3 please!! please !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELP

[LoveMyTico 999]

I understand the explanation of Laurel's grocery store schpeel HOWEVER, wouldn't it make sense in thinking that March and April should be on the top of the pile ... NEXT IN LINE?? In my world, first come first serve..... right? no matter how many people start processing cases, you would think they would go by PD... I guess that is wishful thinking

[LoveMyTico 999]

To file a K-3 does the petitioner has to be in the US ??? With no clear answers or accurate processing times I think the best option we are left with is to file for k-3 ... Anyone has more details about this process ??? For what I understand the processing time is about 5-6 months (better than the year estimate that we have for the I-30) that cost more and that in order to complete the whole process (receive the green card) may take longer at the end are basically the cons but, I personally don't care to wait 2 years or pay more for the green card if I'm already in the States, I'm honestly anxious, desperate and willing to do whatever necessary to get out of this country and go back to the States .. I'm starting to feel that I'm no longer stressed out but sinking into depression If anyone knows anything about this K-3 please!! please !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELP

no, you don't have to be in the US to file.. Go ahead and file... I just filed this week and my I-130 is at 6 months (TODAY) . I am not willing to wait a ridiculous YEAR for our

petition to be approved. My main goal is to be together, once he is here, I DON'T CARE ABOUT THE EXTRA COST !!

[jane21 11]

To file a K-3 does the petitioner has to be in the US ??? With no clear answers or accurate processing times I think the best option we are left with is to file for k-3 ... Anyone has more details about this process ??? For what I understand the processing time is about 5-6 months (better than the year estimate that we have for the I-30) that cost more and that in order to complete the whole process (receive the green card) may take longer at the end are basically the cons but, I personally don't care to wait 2 years or pay more for the green card if I'm already in the States, I'm honestly anxious, desperate and willing to do whatever necessary to get out of this country and go back to the States .. I'm starting to feel that I'm no longer stressed out but sinking into depression If anyone knows anything about this K-3 please!! please !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELP

hello! my husband file for k3 for me to be able to get to states quicker! but im telling you now its just waste why? because im still here waiting for 9months and 13days and still nothing

[JKSforever 7]

hello! my husband file for k3 for me to be able to get to states quicker! but im telling you now its just waste why? because im still here waiting for 9months and 13days and still nothing

Did your husband filed also i 130?

[lucybelle 453]

What's about USC filing from abroad the last note listed 60 days processing for them is this still true

No way Jose. I filed from abroad. In March.

It does make sense, as Laurel's last post about the grocery line explains. The processing times vary according to where you are in the line.

Think of it this way:

Guy A delivering files ---------------->Guy B (USCIS) -----------------------> finished

Let's assume that Guy A is delivering files at a steady rate. Guy B (USCIS) is working as fast as Guy A brings files. The wait average is around 90 days to a NOA2 (as per my calculations for NOA1s in Nov, 2012 - Feb, 2013 which I posted on VJ before). But then Guy B works more and more slowly (February-June, 2013). The files brought by Guy A stack up next to Guy B. Those files (our petitions) are basically gathering dust and piling high. Then Guy B starts working faster and faster again (hopefully, Oct, 2013).

Now, if your file was delivered to Guy B in Feb-June, you are part of a big stack, and even though he is working very fast in Oct, your total wait is going to be longer than someone whose file was delivered in Sept.

The point is, that as their adjudication rates change, the wait time of different cohorts of petitioners also changes. Once their adjudication rate is equal or greater than the rate of new deliveries, the wait time for newly delivered files drops.

So, if they do in fact begin to adjudicate more and more rapidly in October and later, then the wait time for filers in Sept-October will be less than the wait times for earlier filers. Which filing period will have the longest wait? By my guess, March-April. I asked Laurel to confirm this in my FB message to her. The VJ I-130 adjudication rate has been basically frozen since they filed.

The key is, when will Overland Park start adjudicating and at how fast a rate? What will be the staffing levels dedicated to I-130 adjudications at Overland Park? I asked Laurel those questions, too.

Let us know when you get more info from her. The thing I wonder is people are saying it'll take a year for those who filed before May, but it will take 6 months or less who filed after August. I mean that means EVERYONE who filed this entire year will be approved in Feb/March. How is that possible? If I filed in March, I expect to be approved BEFORE people who filed six months after me.

[LoveMyTico 999]

Did your husband filed also i 130?

you can't file the K-3 unless you already filed the I-130. You need the NOA1 when filing the K-3.

K-3's weren't really being processed a little while back ( they were joinung them with the I-130) because the I-130's were only taking 6 months, but NOW... the processing times for the I-130 are posted at 12 months or more ( 16.6 months) so my lawyer advised me to file the K-3 the other day. The K-3 was introduced years back to shorten the wait while the I-130's were taking a very long time.... I think it applies now

[jane21 11]

Did your husband filed also i 130?

yes he did and he also sent I-29f

[LoveMyTico 999]

No way Jose. I filed from abroad. In March.

Let us know when you get more info from her. The thing I wonder is people are saying it'll take a year for those who filed before May, but it will take 6 months or less who filed after August. I mean that means EVERYONE who filed this entire year will be approved in Feb/March. How is that possible? If I filed in March, I expect to be approved BEFORE people who filed six months after me.

yea, I agree.. What happened to first come, first serve? ... That is why this site is a bunch of #######.... all this talk and rumor ####### when nobody really knows..... They can't possibly approve August before all the Feb-April files... it really doesn't make one bit of sense.

It is easy to convince yourself that things will go your way and then post your OPINION on VJ... the problem is.... people run with it and then all of a sudden it turns into the latest news... We all have high hopes that our petition will be next... Nothing is for sure until the NOA2 is in your hands

And I am not saying its you Lucybelle. . I mean in general...

So much information going back and forth...

[voxdei 2]

I hope things will get better in time. I wish they could clear all the stacked files quickly this month so evrything will run smooth again...

[adricas 1]

hello! my husband file for k3 for me to be able to get to states quicker! but im telling you now its just waste why? because im still here waiting for 9months and 13days and still nothing

so sorry for you and all of us so desperate to be able to travel to the States and are stock with no clue as to really expect Good luck everyone ......