October 2013 I-130 Filers

[nightingalejules 678]

Hello October filers!

I have news for you but as good it is you will estimate. I called to USCIS for changing mailing adress from international to U.S.A. Furtunatelly, officer i met was very sweet and attentive not like most indifferent officers on lever 2. I asked if my Case was in the line or on USCIS officer's desk and she responded that she is sorry bc of much delays and currently they are dealing with April 26 filers. Probably she told me statistic from Total records of specificly Nebraska bc of i am there i am not sure. Statistics for last 3 month tell us 9 month is avarage between NOA1-NOA2. So for October filers we have to wate around 5 more month based on avarage statistics and take into consideration UCIS is reviewing most cases 6 month befind us.

If someone has more positive and real imformation it will be awesome.

The people at the call centers have pretty much no access to any up-to-date information. They will tell you that the information they have is current, and that everyone on VisaJourney is lying, or mistaken.

Here are a few facts.

The information they are quoting is out-of-date, even by their own data. If you go to the USCIS website, you will see exactly the information they just quoted you. Look at the small print. The dates they are quoting were current as of December 31, 2013. It's now almost the end of February. So they are telling you they are currently processing April filers? They were doing that 2 months ago. Yes, there are still some filers stuck, still waiting, from April. And March, and February. But they are also processing May filers, June filers, July filers and August filers. And transferring some from September.

The average wait time may be 9 months. Or rather, may have been 9 months as of December 31, 2013. They made a promise to try to get the timelines close to their goal of 5 months by May 2014. So presumably, they are trying to catch up. There are also fewer DACA petitions going through now, which is what slowed down the process to begin with. The likelihood is that the average is actually closer to 7 months now, and making up ground.

It is to the USCIS' benefit to estimate processing times extremely conservatively. Once they go on record as saying "we are processing files from X date" or "the average wait time is Y," then anyone with a priority date before "X" or who has been waiting more than "Y" can legitimately complain and demand to know what's going on with their file right now. Which would take a lot of time and resources away from actually processing and approving our petitions. So it stands to reason that they would not release the actual, current information.

Finally, VJ is a community of people going through this process, who have nothing to gain by lying about the status of their petitions/applications. Our data is collected in real time, continually updated and reported.

Our data suggests that USCIS is playing with the numbers, jumping ahead and processsing the majority of cases from July and August before they completed April, May and June (possibly in order to be able to claim a dramatic drop in "average" processing times at some point in the future). We also have observed that September petitions are now being transferred to other service centers, and if the patterns we've observed hold, those petitions will start to be approved soon. It stands to reason, then, that October filers will be next. Transferred within about a month, and approved within another month or so after that.

You're right. We don't know, and it flies in the face of what USCIS is telling us. But our anecdotal data is showing a different pattern from the official line of USCIS.

I personally tend to believe us. USCIS has a reason to lie (or not lie, exactly, but not give us all the truth). We don't.

[lucky79 20]

The people at the call centers have pretty much no access to any up-to-date information. They will tell you that the information they have is current, and that everyone on VisaJourney is lying, or mistaken.

Here are a few facts.

The information they are quoting is out-of-date, even by their own data. If you go to the USCIS website, you will see exactly the information they just quoted you. Look at the small print. The dates they are quoting were current as of December 31, 2013. It's now almost the end of February. So they are telling you they are currently processing April filers? They were doing that 2 months ago. Yes, there are still some filers stuck, still waiting, from April. And March, and February. But they are also processing May filers, June filers, July filers and August filers. And transferring some from September.

The average wait time may be 9 months. Or rather, may have been 9 months as of December 31, 2013. They made a promise to try to get the timelines close to their goal of 5 months by May 2014. So presumably, they are trying to catch up. There are also fewer DACA petitions going through now, which is what slowed down the process to begin with. The likelihood is that the average is actually closer to 7 months now, and making up ground.

It is to the USCIS' benefit to estimate processing times extremely conservatively. Once they go on record as saying "we are processing files from X date" or "the average wait time is Y," then anyone with a priority date before "X" or who has been waiting more than "Y" can legitimately complain and demand to know what's going on with their file right now. Which would take a lot of time and resources away from actually processing and approving our petitions. So it stands to reason that they would not release the actual, current information.

Finally, VJ is a community of people going through this process, who have nothing to gain by lying about the status of their petitions/applications. Our data is collected in real time, continually updated and reported.

Our data suggests that USCIS is playing with the numbers, jumping ahead and processsing the majority of cases from July and August before they completed April, May and June (possibly in order to be able to claim a dramatic drop in "average" processing times at some point in the future). We also have observed that September petitions are now being transferred to other service centers, and if the patterns we've observed hold, those petitions will start to be approved soon. It stands to reason, then, that October filers will be next. Transferred within about a month, and approved within another month or so after that.

You're right. We don't know, and it flies in the face of what USCIS is telling us. But our anecdotal data is showing a different pattern from the official line of USCIS.

I personally tend to believe us. USCIS has a reason to lie (or not lie, exactly, but not give us all the truth). We don't.

I totally agree with you nightingalejules... most of all the Aug filers have been transferred and September filers have been now started to get the transfer.... hopefully Oct filers should get the transfers by March end.

Edited February 27, 2014 by Ryan H

[Sulaimon & Brandy 20]

The people at the call centers have pretty much no access to any up-to-date information. They will tell you that the information they have is current, and that everyone on VisaJourney is lying, or mistaken.

Here are a few facts.

The information they are quoting is out-of-date, even by their own data. If you go to the USCIS website, you will see exactly the information they just quoted you. Look at the small print. The dates they are quoting were current as of December 31, 2013. It's now almost the end of February. So they are telling you they are currently processing April filers? They were doing that 2 months ago. Yes, there are still some filers stuck, still waiting, from April. And March, and February. But they are also processing May filers, June filers, July filers and August filers. And transferring some from September.

The average wait time may be 9 months. Or rather, may have been 9 months as of December 31, 2013. They made a promise to try to get the timelines close to their goal of 5 months by May 2014. So presumably, they are trying to catch up. There are also fewer DACA petitions going through now, which is what slowed down the process to begin with. The likelihood is that the average is actually closer to 7 months now, and making up ground.

It is to the USCIS' benefit to estimate processing times extremely conservatively. Once they go on record as saying "we are processing files from X date" or "the average wait time is Y," then anyone with a priority date before "X" or who has been waiting more than "Y" can legitimately complain and demand to know what's going on with their file right now. Which would take a lot of time and resources away from actually processing and approving our petitions. So it stands to reason that they would not release the actual, current information.

Finally, VJ is a community of people going through this process, who have nothing to gain by lying about the status of their petitions/applications. Our data is collected in real time, continually updated and reported.

Our data suggests that USCIS is playing with the numbers, jumping ahead and processsing the majority of cases from July and August before they completed April, May and June (possibly in order to be able to claim a dramatic drop in "average" processing times at some point in the future). We also have observed that September petitions are now being transferred to other service centers, and if the patterns we've observed hold, those petitions will start to be approved soon. It stands to reason, then, that October filers will be next. Transferred within about a month, and approved within another month or so after that.

You're right. We don't know, and it flies in the face of what USCIS is telling us. But our anecdotal data is showing a different pattern from the official line of USCIS.

I personally tend to believe us. USCIS has a reason to lie (or not lie, exactly, but not give us all the truth). We don't.

Very Knowledgeable information. I see what you are seeing with the approvals. I have even seen one Oct filer who was approved from NSC. I just try and stay optimistic believing that our time will come soon. I have to admit sometimes Ill look at the immigration timelines for NSC and one day all the but a few blocks are filled then the next time there are more transfers, this is the part that is fearful for me to think that all the transfers are going to NSC and that is why they are so slow. Im here for a reason, I pray for us all to have a swift wait time.

[Sulaimon & Brandy 20]

I totally agree with you nightingalejules... most of all the Aug filers have been transferred and September filers have been now started to get the transfer.... hopefully Oct filers should get the transfers by March end.

Please help me understand the transfers, do you mean people who are at the service centers can be transferred to or just those at the NBC?

[zerozeroone1 2]

Only this @ the NBC

[100JH 129]

Not based on anything concrete, solely speculation, but I am thinking that there is a real push to get the cases closer to the goal of 5 months. If it is 9 months based on the info provided to you, which is based over the past two to three months, i think they are going to get it down to 7 months fairly quickly. It is ironic how quickly things get done once some political pressure is applied. I have seen that from experience. My guess is we will start seeing Oct NOA1's starting to pop around mid to late May. Positive thinking!

[100JH 129]

I am seeing Sep filers getting transferred now, then it takes about two months once transferred? From what I can read/gather? That would also align with a May-ish time frame? Who knows.

I have a magic 8 ball and some ruby slippers...maybe if I go downtown to USCIS I might have some luck?

ME (reading the sign on the door): Bell out of order, please knock. (I knock at the USCIS door)

GUARDIAN OF USCIS: Well, that's more like it! Now, state your business!
ME: I want to see the Wizard!
GUARDIAN OF USCIS: [gasps] The Wizard? But nobody can see the Great Oz! Nobody's ever seen the Great Oz! Even I've never seen him!
ME: Well, then how do you know there is one?
GUARDIAN OF USCIS:: Oh, you're wasting my time!
ME: Oh, please! Please, sir! I've got to see the Wizard! The Good Witch of the North sent me!
GUARDIAN OF USCIS: Prove it!
SOMEONE ELSE IN LINE: He's wearing the ruby slippers she gave him.
GUARDIAN OF USCIS: Oh, so he is! Well, bust my buttons! Why didn't you say that in the first place? That's a horse of a different color! Come on in!

Do you think that might work? I'm 6'3" and 250 pounds, I would look a little funny with my unshaved legs and ruby slippers on! hahahahaha

Edited February 27, 2014 by 100JH

[Baby21 0]

Hi Everyone,

I need a little help, this process is so confusing.

I have been following the August and September 2013 filers to get an idea of how it works but my case seems to be a little different.

My PD is 10/31/2013

The email notification I received said " your case has been accepted and routed to the USCIS Vermont Service Center for processing".

Does this mean my I-130 was already transferred? Or will it likely be transferred again?

Thank you!

[100JH 129]

Hi Everyone,

I need a little help, this process is so confusing.

I have been following the August and September 2013 filers to get an idea of how it works but my case seems to be a little different.

My PD is 10/31/2013

The email notification I received said " your case has been accepted and routed to the USCIS Vermont Service Center for processing".

Does this mean my I-130 was already transferred? Or will it likely be transferred again?

Thank you!

I am not sure, but I doubt you will be transferred again. Actually I think you are lucky because Vermont processes quickly (or so I hear).

[AMT7565 5]

Anyone know what the average approval time is, once a transfer occurs?

Thanks

[nightingalejules 678]

Hi Everyone,

I need a little help, this process is so confusing.

I have been following the August and September 2013 filers to get an idea of how it works but my case seems to be a little different.

My PD is 10/31/2013

The email notification I received said " your case has been accepted and routed to the USCIS Vermont Service Center for processing".

Does this mean my I-130 was already transferred? Or will it likely be transferred again?

Thank you!

Yes, it is unlikely you will be transferred from VSC. The difference between those other months and October is that about halfway through October, USCIS realized that they would not be able to open their fancy new NBC at Overland Park. So they started sending petitions directly to the offices that would be able to process them. Those of us whose petitions are at NBC will likely be transferred to other offices, like August and September. Then, hopefully,

Approvals!

Approvals!

Approvals!

[Vivian&Jaba 17]

Thank you guys for usefull and positive imformations, especially thanks to nightingalejules.

So based on VJ statistics (Registered case timelines) we can have hope that October filers will start getting approved for next 2 months around. And now Nebraska is reviewing cases from July/August mostly.

[Blueberry Pancake 311]

Thank you guys for usefull and positive imformations, especially thanks to nightingalejules.

So based on VJ statistics (Registered case timelines) we can have hope that October filers will start getting approved for next 2 months around. And now Nebraska is reviewing cases from July/August mostly.

Actually, Nebraska is not doing anything.

Approval stats (based on spreadsheets)

JUNE:

TSC- 64%

CSC: 85%

NSC- 31%

JULY:

TSC- 93%

CSC- 78 %

NSC- 27%

AUGUST:

TSC- 47%

CSC- 65%

NSC- no cases received

PLUS September, just no stats yet, we just started being transferred. Also to NSC

Edited February 28, 2014 by Blueberry Pancake

[dhavalskyhawk 12]

I am seeing Sep filers getting transferred now, then it takes about two months once transferred? From what I can read/gather? That would also align with a May-ish time frame? Who knows.

I have a magic 8 ball and some ruby slippers...maybe if I go downtown to USCIS I might have some luck?

ME (reading the sign on the door): Bell out of order, please knock. (I knock at the USCIS door)

GUARDIAN OF USCIS: Well, that's more like it! Now, state your business!

ME: I want to see the Wizard!

GUARDIAN OF USCIS: [gasps] The Wizard? But nobody can see the Great Oz! Nobody's ever seen the Great Oz! Even I've never seen him!

ME: Well, then how do you know there is one?

GUARDIAN OF USCIS:: Oh, you're wasting my time!

ME: Oh, please! Please, sir! I've got to see the Wizard! The Good Witch of the North sent me!

GUARDIAN OF USCIS: Prove it!

SOMEONE ELSE IN LINE: He's wearing the ruby slippers she gave him.

GUARDIAN OF USCIS: Oh, so he is! Well, bust my buttons! Why didn't you say that in the first place? That's a horse of a different color! Come on in!

Do you think that might work? I'm 6'3" and 250 pounds, I would look a little funny with my unshaved legs and ruby slippers on! hahahahaha

Not actually 2 months but within the time frame of 2 months, if USCIS is kind enough to us lol. Honestly speaking, if still they need 2 months or more than that then by carrying out transfer process they are just moving our focus and to show that they are working. Transfer process is kind of illusion sometimes to some of us. well after studying some August timeline I have observed some changes in USCIS process and I have seen some of the application till 15 August received approval. Appreciate USCIS ^;^. Hope for the best to everyone of us.

[Vivian&Jaba 17]

January: https://docs.google....ZJYmwtdmc#gid=0

February: https://docs.google....Y1cXBNbFE#gid=0

March: https://docs.google....rive_web#gid=19

April: https://docs.google....p=sharing#gid=0

May: https://docs.google....RkWDZUSEE#gid=0

June: https://docs.google....xaNjJzUGc#gid=0

July: https://docs.google....p=sharing#gid=0

August: https://docs.google....5uUGF5WGc#gid=0

September: https://docs.google....J4TEFLM3c#gid=0

October: https://docs.google....eUE&usp=sharing

Those links are statistic files. So October filers you can go to October link and see if you are there in list if not fill your case imformation there and juch we will have general picture what is going on. Also you can visit to another links to check another month approval/pending statistics. I got those links from another forum and it isnt under my ownership or administration. (Guys be attentive at time of filling it in another case if we will fill places where it is written dont we will mess it, be very accurate and fill only personal info and dont try to change statictical formulas and numbers)Thanks

Edited February 28, 2014 by Vivian&Jaba