how reliable is vj's processing estimate?

[voltaire-er 0]

hey folks,

so we only filed our i129f with the CSC the beginning of august. i've been checking my timeline on a weekly basis. especially the vj processing estimate of when our case might get adjudicated. at first it starting out to say 'by the end of december', but it has been constantly moving closer to todays date and is now saying mid october. great news!!!!

however, what is your experience with those estimates? the uscis still says 5 months, according to this it would only be a couple.

any ideas?

thanks

christian

[Girl from Celebes 588]

hey folks,

so we only filed our i129f with the CSC the beginning of august. i've been checking my timeline on a weekly basis. especially the vj processing estimate of when our case might get adjudicated. at first it starting out to say 'by the end of december', but it has been constantly moving closer to todays date and is now saying mid october. great news!!!!

however, what is your experience with those estimates? the uscis still says 5 months, according to this it would only be a couple.

any ideas?

thanks

christian

Mine has never been changed since I first filled out my timeline. I consider you're a lucky one

[voltaire-er 0]

looking at other timelines with similar characteristics (same service center, same consulate) and those cases took an average of 34 days!!! that's super quick. however, there is only a total of 7 cases involved. so not sure. thanks for your feedback. maybe other people have similar experiences?

[Girl from Celebes 588]

looking at other timelines with similar characteristics (same service center, same consulate) and those cases took an average of 34 days!!! that's super quick. however, there is only a total of 7 cases involved. so not sure. thanks for your feedback. maybe other people have similar experiences?

Wow, That's good a piece of information. I did not go to see other timelines very often. But, I guess am just need give a try. Thank you.

[HK12 273]

hey folks,

so we only filed our i129f with the CSC the beginning of august. i've been checking my timeline on a weekly basis. especially the vj processing estimate of when our case might get adjudicated. at first it starting out to say 'by the end of december', but it has been constantly moving closer to todays date and is now saying mid october. great news!!!!

however, what is your experience with those estimates? the uscis still says 5 months, according to this it would only be a couple.

any ideas?

thanks

Christian

It's an estimate, that's all. It relies on the timelines of other members, and it fluctuates over time with the service centers slowing down/speeding up. When I first created my timeline, the timeline estimated early July 2012 for my NOA2 date. Then the big slowdown at VSC happened, and the estimate got pushed back further and further to the end of September 2012. My actual NOA2 came on August 30. So it really is just an estimate, nothing more, nothing less.

[HK12 273]

looking at other timelines with similar characteristics (same service center, same consulate) and those cases took an average of 34 days!!! that's super quick. however, there is only a total of 7 cases involved. so not sure. thanks for your feedback. maybe other people have similar experiences?

What service center exactly are we talking about? Only VSC, TSC, and CSC process K1 visas, and as far as I have seen, there are plenty of timelines for each of them (definitely more than seven).

[voltaire-er 0]

that's what i figured, thank you. well things are looking at well at the CSC right now. let's hope it stays that way. with doma finally gone...it's been a long time coming for us.

i'm talking about the CSC. yes there are more, but not in conjunction with the frankfurt consulate at this point. at least that's the statistic i found.

[HK12 273]

i'm talking about the CSC. yes there are more, but not in conjunction with the frankfurt consulate at this point. at least that's the statistic i found.

Ah alright. I wouldn't really take Frankfurt into consideration for now. For the NOA2, everyone is on the same boat, independent from the local embassy or consulate. Frankfurt doesn't come into play until after your NOA2. Good luck!

[Nikkosan 127]

Mine went from an initial "November 6th to November 27th" to a "October 23rd to November 6th" shift.

As HK12 said, it is only an estimate based on VJ stats, however, many July and quite a few August filers have already been approved (I follow ALL timelines!), and that leaves me quite hopeful!

[clairegie 265]

My estimate was originally October 9ish.. and then it went to this current week of September and is now Aug 27 to Sept 9. These past 3 weeks its been fluctuating a lot because of the sudden flood of approvals. If we base it on the estimates, mine is incorrect then. I'm CSC too and a July 2013 filer. To be honest, the estimate gave me false hope (my fault entirely of course), I advise not to put much hope on it. I know how hard it is to be patient when everyone else around you is getting NOA2's. Kinda feels like the kid being chosen last for soccer teams. Hang in there. We'll get our NOA2's eventually

Edited September 17, 2013 by iammrsregi

[TBoneTX 45,288]

*** Thread moved from K-1 Process forum to the Site Discussion forum -- topic involves the internal VJ timeline function. ***

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

Times are indeed getting faster and faster (see above). That plot is based on real approvals.

[stevie b 141]

Times are indeed getting faster and faster (see above). That plot is based on real approvals.

if you put up a 130 chart, it will be total mayhem

[clairegie 265]

my estimate date is going up now, from what I gather from this thread it could possibly mean...:

1.) people dont update their timelines anymore?

2.) csc slowed down with the approvals, thats why my estimated date is going up again?

3.) the estimate is actually slowly progressing towards being accurate? like the "immigration timeline" for k1 is actually syncing up with the actual dates CSC is working on now...

Any thoughts?