NOAA trims forecast for busy hurricane season

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

WASHINGTON (AP) This Atlantic hurricane season may not be quite as busy as federal forecasters once thought, but they still warn of an unusually active and potentially dangerous few months to come.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its hurricane season forecast Thursday, trimming back the number of hurricanes they expect this year to between six and nine. That's a couple less than they predicted back in May.

The forecast calls for three to five of those hurricanes to be major, with winds greater than 110 mph. The updated forecast also predicts 13 to 19 named storms this year. Both of those predictions are just one less forecast three months ago.

The chance that 2013 will be busier than normal remains at 70 percent. A normal year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major storms.

"Make no bones about it, those ranges indicate a lot of activity still to come," said lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md. "We're coming to the peak of hurricane season now."

Hurricane season starts in June and runs until the end of November, but peak hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October.

So far, there have been four named storms, the last one being Tropical Storm Dorian. Four storms in June and July is more than normal, when usually there are just one or two, Bell said.

http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/news-science/20130808/US-SCI-Hurricane-Forecast/

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Dammit! That's bad news, right? It means there is no global warming? Or did Armegeddon just take a breather?

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

WASHINGTON (AP) This Atlantic hurricane season may not be quite as busy as federal forecasters once thought, but they still warn of an unusually active and potentially dangerous few months to come.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its hurricane season forecast Thursday, trimming back the number of hurricanes they expect this year to between six and nine. That's a couple less than they predicted back in May.

The forecast calls for three to five of those hurricanes to be major, with winds greater than 110 mph. The updated forecast also predicts 13 to 19 named storms this year. Both of those predictions are just one less forecast three months ago.

The chance that 2013 will be busier than normal remains at 70 percent. A normal year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major storms.

"Make no bones about it, those ranges indicate a lot of activity still to come," said lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md. "We're coming to the peak of hurricane season now."

Hurricane season starts in June and runs until the end of November, but peak hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October.

So far, there have been four named storms, the last one being Tropical Storm Dorian. Four storms in June and July is more than normal, when usually there are just one or two, Bell said.

http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/news-science/20130808/US-SCI-Hurricane-Forecast/

How do they get to change their prediction every year 2/3 of the way thru the season. That is just BS

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

How do they get to change their prediction every year 2/3 of the way thru the season. That is just BS

Kinda rules out the concept of calling it a "prediction"

[TBoneTX 46,176]

Predicted numbers are really irrelevant, because all it takes is one hurricane to wreck everything for thousands or millions of people, sigh man. Of course, half of them are himmicanes, si man.

We shouldn't be so hard on the 'cane forecasters when even our local weathermen can't accurately predict rain chances 24 or 48 hours in advance, no man.

Edited August 9, 2013 by TBoneTX

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

Predicted numbers are really irrelevant, because all it takes is one hurricane to wreck everything for thousands or millions of people, sigh man. Of course, half of them are himmicanes, si man.

We shouldn't be so hard on the 'cane forecasters when even our local weathermen can't accurately predict rain chances 24 or 48 hours in advance, no man.

Not being hard on them, but when they get to change their prediction after half of it is almost over, its stupid to track their prediction history.

[himher 634]

....they still warn of an unusually active and potentially dangerous few months to come....

This is a critical/valuable government service. They definitely need that 8% funding increase.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/pdfs/FY14%20Constituent%20Briefing_web.pdf