Egypt. Again. What's next?

[Dan and Judy 614]

So it seems that the people of Egypt had it with the Muslim Brotherhood. So it seems the Egyptian military has set an ultimatum for Mursi. What's next for Egypt?

Nationwide virginity tests for all women to help stop rape

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Nationwide virginity tests for all women to help stop rape

Is the GOP moving in?

[Dan and Judy 614]

Is the GOP moving in?

yes the Gynecophile Ogling Party

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

yes the Gynecophile Ogling Party

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

Never mind the coup: U.S. military aid will continue to flow to Egypt

Egyptians celebrated in the street after the military deposed Mohamed Morsi from power. (Photo via CBS News)

After the Egyptian military deposed former President Mohamed Morsi from power, the conversation in the U.S. quickly turned to this question: would military aid be cut off to the Egyptian armed forces, as the law stipulates must be done after a coup? The short answer is no. Too much is at stake for U.S. elite interests--namely Israel, the Suez Canal and influence in the Middle East--for that to happen.

...

Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont released a statement saying that the U.S. was obligated to cut off military aid to Egypt. “Our law is clear: U.S. aid is cut off when a democratically elected government is deposed by military coup or decree,” said Leahy. “This is a time to reaffirm our commitment to the principle that transfers of power should be by the ballot, not by force of arms.”

President Obama gave his answer on the question of an aid cut-off in his own statement released last night. While Obama said he was concerned about retribution against the Muslim Brotherhood--something that began to happen immediately after Morsi’s departure--he also didn’t mention the word “coup,” which would have forced the U.S.’s hand on an aid cut-off. “I have also directed the relevant departments and agencies to review the implications under U.S. law for our assistance to the Government of Egypt,” said Obama, paying lip-service to U.S. law. But the cat is already out of the bag--Secretary of State John Kerry approved $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt in May.

That annual $1.3 billion has helped the Egyptian military become the most powerful institution in the country. It has bought the military the armored personnel carriers, the fighter jets and the guns that helped them to easily exert total control of Egypt yesterday. Indeed, as an Egyptian military officer put it today in the New York Times, “We are disciplined, and we have the weapons. That’s what’s on the market right now. Do you see any other solid institution on the scene?”

The Egyptian military would not have overthrown Morsi without a green-light from the U.S. The U.S. spigot to the military will continue to flow as long as the military keeps acting in a way conducive to U.S. interests.

One of the most important reasons why the U.S. gives Egypt military aid is the armed forces’ continued maintenance of the peace treaty with Israel. The 1979 Camp David Accords took the Egyptian military off the map as a threat to Israel. This freed up Israel’s hands to deal with the Palestinians and other regional enemies as they wish without the threat of any Egyptian retribution. The military has collaborated with Israel’s system of control over the Palestinians ever since the peace treaty was signed. This was seen clearly during Operation Cast Lead, when the Israeli and Egyptian militaries coordinated as Israel waged a punishing assault on Gaza’s civilians and Hamas--no friend to the Egyptian military. More recently, the Egyptian military has continued to crack down on smuggling tunnels into Gaza that deliver goods and arms to the besieged strip.

As the Times of Israel reported, “Israeli political and military sources privately indicated Thursday that they considered the turn of events potentially beneficial to Israel...The Times of Israel has been told that senior Israeli defense officials consider relations with el-Sissi’s military establishment to have been close and robust, with ongoing cooperation between the two military hierarchies.”

The Suez Canal, too, is another important reason for U.S. military aid to Egypt. The canal is crucial for U.S. naval force projection, as well as for the flow of oil and gas to the U.S. and Europe.

Yet another reason the aid will keep flowing, as Shana Marshall wrote in Foreign Policy last year, is that “the aid benefits a small and influential coterie of elites in both capitals. In the United States, the aid program provides a large and predictable source of demand for weapons exporters, while in Cairo, collaborative military production with U.S. firms help subsidize the army's commercial economic ventures.”

As the Egyptian military continues its crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, you can expect to see a lot of U.S. hand wringing over it. But the hand wringing won’t translate into an aid cut-off. The American position was articulated by Senator Lindsey Graham: “[it] looks like a coup, it sounds like a coup...But I'm in the camp with Senator McCain - let's look and see how this unfolds...we cannot be seen as supporting a military coup. It is imperative that the democratic process restart and that we have a game plan and a road map to new elections.”

In other words, U.S. officials recognizes the military's actions as a coup. But the aid cut-off is something that will take time--too much time for it to actually be implemented.

While we’re waiting for the democratic process to “restart”--perhaps as the Muslim Brotherhood is decimated as a political force--the Egyptian military can slowly get back to its traditional role as a state within a state in the background. That way, the foreign policy the U.S. wants will continue to be pursued by the Egyptian military while a new civilian leader is installed who won’t go near pursuing an independent Egyptian regional policy.

http://mondoweiss.net/2013/07/never-military-continue.html

Edited July 4, 2013 by Falastin_Qalbi

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

The coup aside for a moment. Clearly, the Muslim Brotherhood government under Morsi failed the people of Egypt. If you have anti government demonstrations across the country totaling an estimated 14-20 million people out in the streets in a country of 84 million, then the government ought to take notice and make adjustments - and quick. I suppose Egyptians didn't throw Mubarak out to have him replaced with a radical religion based government. Looks like the people care more about economic development and opportunity - something the Morsi government has miserably failed to deliver; or even focus on.

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

The coup aside for a moment. Clearly, the Muslim Brotherhood government under Morsi failed the people of Egypt. If you have anti government demonstrations across the country totaling an estimated 14-20 million people out in the streets in a country of 84 million, then the government ought to take notice and make adjustments - and quick. I suppose Egyptians didn't throw Mubarak out to have him replaced with a radical religion based government. Looks like the people care more about economic development and opportunity - something the Morsi government has miserably failed to deliver; or even focus on.

This is what has been reported in the West. Reality is not so simple. However, from the ground, there are many reports of foreigners in the crowds of protesters, paid protesters, and protesters linked to the former Mubarak regime.

Certainly, some Egyptians were unhappy with the outcome of the election - much like in the US, especially after the last 4 elections. Does this excuse a military coup to take out a democratically elected president ? Does the government in the US take this kind of heed of widespread opposition, and offer a regime change in a president's mid-term? Would you be comfortable with the military using it as an excuse to step in to depose a president and replacing him with one of their own picks ?

Watch for the next Mubarak to be installed - another dictator who will be brutal with his own people, but who will implement American foreign policy based on American/Israeli interests in return for the $1.5 billion - instead of implementing independent Egyptian policies based on Egypt's interests.

[Karee 4,190]

Certainly, some Egyptians were unhappy with the outcome of the election - much like in the US, especially after the last 4 elections. Does this excuse a military coup to take out a democratically elected president ? Does the government in the US take this kind of heed of widespread opposition, and offer a regime change in a president's mid-term? Would you be comfortable with the military using it as an excuse to step in to depose a president and replacing him with one of their own picks ?

Comparisons to the U.S. do not apply here. When you have endemic corruption on a scale like they have in Egypt, there's no comparison. Morsi and his allies pushed through a constitution, banned former members of Mubarak's party from running for office, along with a weak judiciary etc. etc.

When their choices are military strongmen or religious nuts, they'll never have stability. Until they get a secular govt in there and do something about corruption, this is probably the beginning of a cycle that will last for awhile. Hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

This is what has been reported in the West. Reality is not so simple. However, from the ground, there are many reports of foreigners in the crowds of protesters, paid protesters, and protesters linked to the former Mubarak regime.

Certainly, some Egyptians were unhappy with the outcome of the election - much like in the US, especially after the last 4 elections. Does this excuse a military coup to take out a democratically elected president ? Does the government in the US take this kind of heed of widespread opposition, and offer a regime change in a president's mid-term? Would you be comfortable with the military using it as an excuse to step in to depose a president and replacing him with one of their own picks ?

Watch for the next Mubarak to be installed - another dictator who will be brutal with his own people, but who will implement American foreign policy based on American/Israeli interests in return for the $1.5 billion - instead of implementing independent Egyptian policies based on Egypt's interests.

Some are unhappy? Looked like a lot. If we had 80 million people out in the streets protesting against the government in this country, I suspect that whoever is running the government at that time would make an immediate effort to begin a serious conversation with the protesting crowd. We have nothing like that going on. Not after this election, not after the previous one or the one before that. We have the fringes unhappy to where they protest but that's about it.

I'll wait for the next Mubarak, then...

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

Comparisons to the U.S. do not apply here. When you have endemic corruption on a scale like they have in Egypt, there's no comparison. Morsi and his allies pushed through a constitution, banned former members of Mubarak's party from running for office, along with a weak judiciary etc. etc.

When their choices are military strongmen or religious nuts, they'll never have stability. Until they get a secular govt in there and do something about corruption, this is probably the beginning of a cycle that will last for awhile. Hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

You think the Egyptian military is not corrupt ?

This is all about money. The $1.5 billion. The Egyptian army wants it. What do you think they will do with it ?

Some are unhappy? Looked like a lot. If we had 80 million people out in the streets protesting against the government in this country, I suspect that whoever is running the government at that time would make an immediate effort to begin a serious conversation with the protesting crowd. We have nothing like that going on. Not after this election, not after the previous one or the one before that. We have the fringes unhappy to where they protest but that's about it.

I'll wait for the next Mubarak, then...

I know it's a lot to absorb. But this is not what you think it is.

[Karee 4,190]

You think the Egyptian military is not corrupt ?

I never said the military is not corrupt. Point out where I said they weren't corrupt. I'll play your game.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I know it's a lot to absorb. But this is not what you think it is.

I don't do conspiracy theories. Sorry.

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

I never said the military is not corrupt. Point out where I said they weren't corrupt. I'll play your game.

Read what I quoted from what I wrote a year ago. The Egyptian military has controlled the government of Egypt since Nasser... with the short interruption of Morsi. And they are determined to keep control of it. The Muslim Brotherhood is their rival. So the army has placed Morsi and other Muslim Brotherhood leaders under arrest, and is making moves to outlaw them.

I don't do conspiracy theories. Sorry.

Watch and learn.

[Karee 4,190]

Read what I quoted from what I wrote a year ago. The Egyptian military has controlled the government of Egypt since Nasser... with the short interruption of Morsi. And they are determined to keep control of it. The Muslim Brotherhood is their rival. So the army has placed Morsi and other Muslim Brotherhood leaders under arrest, and is making moves to outlaw them.

Still patiently waiting for you to point out where I said the military is not corrupt.

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

Still patiently waiting for you to point out where I said the military is not corrupt.

I was responding to what you wrote:

Comparisons to the U.S. do not apply here. When you have endemic corruption on a scale like they have in Egypt, there's no comparison. Morsi and his allies pushed through a constitution, banned former members of Mubarak's party from running for office, along with a weak judiciary etc. etc.

When their choices are military strongmen or religious nuts, they'll never have stability. Until they get a secular govt in there and do something about corruption, this is probably the beginning of a cycle that will last for awhile. Hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

You said that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood were corrupt, implying that it was ok or understandable for the military to stage a coup. And the military is making the same moves now - suspending the consititution, banning opposition parties, etc.

If that's not what you meant, I apologize.