Analyzing the Discrepancies in K-1 Processing Times

[Bugs 455]

There seems to be a lot of heated discussion about this, and a lot of it is based on assumptions and failure to analyze the graphs Igor's List in a bit more detail rather than by glancing at them when coming up with conclusions. For instance, some are saying that CSC is at several months ahead of VSC now, when, in reality, CSC has merely skipped a lot of their backlog in reaching those later months.

Let's look at the graphs.

As you can see, it appears that CSC is way ahead of VSC. While this is true when comparing the fact that a lot of January filers and even a few February filers have been approved at CSC, and not as many at VSC, one should also consider that the gaps along the top of each of the bars for the earlier months are greater for CSC than VSC, indeed, making it clear that they have advanced "the easy way".

So let's factor in the filers that have been passed over for each service center to come to a more accurate position of discrepancy between the two in terms of who is ahead and by how much.

We will start with July, since some from that month on here are still complaining about being left behind (we'll assume nobody from June has this problem).

Looking at the graphs....

For July, we see that about 20% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For August, we see that about 20% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For September, we see that about 20% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For October, we see that about 30% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For November, we see that about 40% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For December, we see that about 30% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

We will stop at January, since it can be assumed that no further skippage has yet occured beyond that month.

Adding the above percentages, we come to 160%. What this figure means is that if CSC instead processed applications in order, that would mean we need to go back 160% from the top of the January bar downward and left to get an accurate indication of where they SHOULD be at if they approved applications in order, given the amount of approvals they have given up to this date.

This comes to mid-November. If CSC were approving applications in order, instead of skipping filers, given the number of approvals since June, they would be at mid-November.

Let's now do the same for VSC...

For July, we see that about 10% of VSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For August, we see that about 20% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For September, we see that about 10% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

For October, we see that about 35% of CSC filers still have yet to be approved.

We will stop at November, since it can be assumed that no further skippage has yet occured beyond that month.

So, adding up the above percentages, we get a figure of 85%. Applying this figure in the same manner as CSC's above, going back 85% from the top of the November bar downward and left, we come to mid-October. This means that if VSC were approving applications in order, instead of skipping filers, given the number of approvals since June, they would be at mid-October.

So, in reality, as we can see, VSC is about one month behind in processing K-1 applications than CSC.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Leon & Mylen

[zooropa 30]

Your readings are flawed....no accounting for the current RFEs or the fact that NO month will ever get to 100%....VSC is currently approving Oct...look at 5/22...I dont believe CSC has done a Oct approval in days...in fact the majority for CSC are Nov, Dec, Jan and a few Feb...but I guess I am foolish to even argue this at this point...so I will let you cont saying that VSC is only 30 days behind CSC.....

[Bugs 455]

Your readings are flawed....no accounting for the current RFEs or the fact that NO month will ever get to 100%....VSC is currently approving Oct...look at 5/22...I dont believe CSC has done a Oct approval in days...in fact the majority for CSC are Nov, Dec, Jan and a few Feb...but I guess I am foolish to even argue this at this point...so I will let you cont saying that VSC is only 30 days behind CSC.....

Yes, I know it isn't perfect, but your arguments against it can apply for both service centers. RFEs and non-posters must be accounted for both graphs and so there is no reason to believe the numbers in comparing both are different after such an accounting.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Leon & Mylen

[Possiblymaybe 371]

I don't really see it the same way that you do. What I see is that Vermont is at about 7 months right now, and that on average California is at about 4-5 months. So i would say that Vermont is a few months behind California.

Having a 7 month processing timeframe is ridiculous, and I would urge all VSC filers beyond 5 months to contact their elected representatives.

[Bugs 455]

I don't really see it the same way that you do. What I see is that Vermont is at about 7 months right now, and that on average California is at about 4-5 months. So i would say that Vermont is a few months behind California.

Having a 7 month processing timeframe is ridiculous, and I would urge all VSC filers beyond 5 months to contact their elected representatives.

I'd be interested in how you came up with those figures. Is it the USCIS website times, because that is accurate if you go by that? However, as many on here can attest, those are not always accurate.

[Possiblymaybe 371]

I'd be interested in how you came up with those figures. Is it the USCIS website times, because that is accurate if you go by that? However, as many on here can attest, those are not always accurate.

I am basing it off of the VJ approvals on Igors list. For Vermont, we're mostly seeing October/November approvals.

California is a bit more complicated because of all of the jumping around. Yes, they have skipped over so many! But most of the approvals we are seeing daily are from November, December, and January. That's why I worded it as on average of 4-5 months. It probably would have been better to have said 4-6 months.

[Bugs 455]

I am basing it off of the VJ approvals on Igors list. For Vermont, we're mostly seeing October/November approvals.

California is a bit more complicated because of all of the jumping around. Yes, they have skipped over so many! But most of the approvals we are seeing daily are from November, December, and January. That's why I worded it as on average of 4-5 months. It probably would have been better to have said 4-6 months.

That's assuming, of course, they NEVER go back to all the filers skipped earlier than those months. If they do, however (which I certainly hope they would!), then time and resources will be focused on those filers, taking away from later filers. So I will stand by my conclusion they are about a month ahead of VSC because they have a greater backlog to return to than VSC does.

[Possiblymaybe 371]

I certainly hope they do too!

[Bugs 455]

I certainly hope they do too!

I think they will soon, because, thanks to the updated times on USCIS' website, those filers can now call and have their cases checked.

[Possiblymaybe 371]

I know, I was so very happy to see that. I fully believed that since the update would have been for the last day of March that they were going to report the July 18th date. I am thrilled that they didn't do that, even though we all know they didn't start moving until April. It finally allows those left behind to get attention for their individual cases.

[Bugs 455]

I know, I was so very happy to see that. I fully believed that since the update would have been for the last day of March that they were going to report the July 18th date. I am thrilled that they didn't do that, even though we all know they didn't start moving until April. It finally allows those left behind to get attention for their individual cases.

Yeah, exactly. While mine is April 8th of this year, and of course I would be thrilled if I got my approval tomorrow lol, I'm willing to stand in line until it should be my turn if it means that CSC will go back to being fair and process applicants in order. If anything is for me in that, at least it would eliminate the fear that I could be skipped over myself.

[Possiblymaybe 371]

I would just like to add that it is nice that we can respectfully disagree about our interpretations of the current processing times without anyone getting upset. Thank you for that

[Bugs 455]

I would just like to add that it is nice that we can respectfully disagree about our interpretations of the current processing times without anyone getting upset. Thank you for that

Of course. I've always been a believer of civil debate. I also notice you got your approval and I want to congratulate you and wish you the best on the continued journey.

[Possiblymaybe 371]

Thank you! My fiancé and I are very happy that the RFE was dealt with quickly. Good luck on your journey! If it is any relief, I want to let you know that I had checked the past several years of posted processing times for CSC, and this July 18th fiasco was the first time that CSC had posted beyond the USCIS goal in years

[amykathleen2005 441]

You cannot add and multiply percentages. You need to use the raw data to prove the point you are trying to make. There might be only 1 out of 2 approved of 50 out of 100 approved in any giving month. Just saying 50% is not a clear representation of this data.