Where can I find a Visa Bulletin archive with numbers? (instead of just 'CURRENT')

[billystevenson 0]

SusieQQQ - right, so it sounds like you're saying that, when it hits 'CURRENT', it's actually a promising thing? As I said, I assumed that the odds of getting a Green Card at that point were akin to winning a second lottery.

[serac 0]

I'm hoping what you are saying about CURRENT meaning all numbers get interviews is correct because based on the numbers, that's the only way I'm going to get an interview. My case number is 2990 :-( I'm in the Oceania region (Australia) too and I wish there were stats available on how many Oceania selectees end up getting visas. It's a painful wait until that final month.....

[billystevenson 0]

Hi Serac - from what I understand, they don't give out excess case numbers to create a second lottery, they just do it to ensure that all the numbers are filled. The fact that you've got that case number must mean that, in the past, they've had to go that high to fill all the visas (it also suggests to me that there must be quite a low rate of acceptance in Oceania). My understanding is that when it goes to Current, it's actually a good thing - it means that there is a visa number for all remaining applicants, if they pass their interview.

[serac 0]

Hi Serac - from what I understand, they don't give out excess case numbers to create a second lottery, they just do it to ensure that all the numbers are filled. The fact that you've got that case number must mean that, in the past, they've had to go that high to fill all the visas (it also suggests to me that there must be quite a low rate of acceptance in Oceania). My understanding is that when it goes to Current, it's actually a good thing - it means that there is a visa number for all remaining applicants, if they pass their interview.

Well there were 562 visa issuances for the Oceania region out of 2000 selectees in the 2012 lottery so around 25-30% acceptance rate. Will be interesting to see whether this continues when the 2013 numbers are finally out. Based on previous year's numbers I must be right at the high end of the Oceania numbers though so I guess it'll really come down to the wire. So close but so far!

[billystevenson 0]

Hey - where did you get 562 from? According to the official site, there were 2001 Oceania issuances in DV-2012, including 900 from Australia:

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5561.html

[billystevenson 0]

Sorry, my mistake, I've confused selectees and issuances.

On paper, that reads as a 25% chance, but really, I imagine it's higher. Much higher. If 125 000 people need to be selected to ensure issuance of 55 000 visas, then it must be the case that the majority of selectees don't qualify, or don't pursue the visa. For that reason, I wonder if comparing the number of selectees with the number of issuances is an accurate way to assess the odds. For example, I'd be less inclined to say "Only 500 out of 2000 selectees received the visa" than to say "It took 2000 selectees to find 500 selectees who were qualified, or still prepared to pursue the visa." Everything else about the application process has been characterised by care and caution, so it would surprise me if the US would announce a visa category had gone to current unless there were a visa number assigned to everybody. That doesn't mean everybody will get the visa - there may still be people remaining who are unqualified, or not willing to pursue it, as well as - and I assume this is most common - people who haven't got their paperwork and preparation in order, which means that the current period might expire before they can claim their number. Another user who's been really helpful on here told me of an African person she knew who received a number in the 90 000s. Apparently, this is very high for Africa - and probably higher, proportionally, than your number is for Oceania. But, when it finally came to current, he received his visa. So yeah...I've been agonising over it too, but I think the simplest and most accurate thing to do is to assume that when it goes to current, you will receive an interview. That's what I'm going to do.

[newbeey 0]

Hi everyone - can I just say this was a huge help. I'm well behind as I only just logged in and discovered that I was selected, with a case number in the 1900's and had no idea what that meant. Great to have people on here sharing their knowledge and experiences!