I-129F Delay Calculator Spreadsheet Version 2.0 (Works for CSC and VSC Filers)

[I & B 273]

After receiving tons of feedback and comments upon releasing my first calculator spreadsheet, I ended up improving it quite a bit this week. Some of those incremental updates were posted in the old thread; however, this update is big enough that I believe it warrants a thread of its own.

NOTE: The spreadsheet was made on the Excel 2010 for Windows. I know the last version did not work correctly on some older version of excel and I expect the same will be true for this one. But don't let that stop you from trying it out. I'll try to address specific issues, but there may not be anything I can do to make it completely compatible with older excel versions.

Also note that many of the improvements added are designed to really allow people play with and think about the data in a more interactive way so that they can more deeply grasp the severity of the problem at the CSC. I highly encourage CSC filers to spend 15-20 minutes really exploring and thinking about the newly added scenarios (8-10).

Directions:

1. Download the excel spreadsheet I have prepared here. (Note: this spreadsheet also includes all the data I prepared for my CSC data analysis thread)

2. Open it to either the csc or vsc projected delays sheet according to where your petition is being processed (look along the bottom of the screen to find the correct sheet).

3. Enter the "date received" indicated on your NOA1 in the yellow box at the top. (Note: this will only work through NOA1s issued through January, 2013.)

4. Adjust the appropriate csc or vsc custom scenarios sheet to provide data for scenarios 8-10 (again, those sheets can be navigated to by looking along the bottom of the screen).

5. Check the wait times for the different scenarios to get a sense for when your completion will be.

6. If you'd like, you can also compare your processing time to how long the processing would take if your petitioner were filed with the other service center. Simply repeat steps 2-4 using the other service center's sheets and then check the "projected delays comparison" sheet.

How It Works:

I've left all of my calculations plainly visible for those who are interested. But for those who do not want to reverse engineer it, the spreadsheet works as follows: It simply takes the date you input and assumes that your petition submitted on that date will be completed once all other applications still pending at the time of your submission have been completed. For each of the seven scenarios provided, it then counts down completions per day (using the USCIS's published rates through January, 2013 and then my hypothetical rates thereafter) until the app has been completed and then reports the completion dates to the top grid for your viewing pleasure.

Scenarios 8-10 allow you to apply the same methdology to more-customized data sets. Just follow the directions on the csc and vsc custom scenarios sheets.

Limitations:

1. This spreadsheet assumes that, on average, petitions will be processed serially in the order they are received. Obviously that assumption still leaves room for error with any individual petition, so the date provided is a rough estimate.

2. For simplicity's sake, this spreadsheet does not distinguish between weekends and weekdays as far as the service center's completions per day is concerned. This shouldn't drastically effect the estimated completion date, but it may slightly (+/- 2-3 days) in certain cases.

3. Scenarios 1-7 are deliberately crude in their projections. They start by assuming that January, 2013 rates continued through February and March (in truth, I suspect the February and March rates were likely different at both service centers and thus urge you to play around with the Universal Adjustment tool and scenarios 9-10 accordingly). The scenarios then assume that a flat rate (either the median or fast rate indicated) begins at the specified month and continues indefinitely without change. If you'd like to try different scenarios that better capture the historic undulating ebb and flow of completions, then I suggest using Scenario 8 or making your own scenario with Scenario 9.

4. I'm not perfect and there may be errors somewhere in there. I didn't test every date myself. Please report any errors you find.

5. Note that some July filers may see that they should have been processed by now according to the worst-case scenario data. Yes, I know. That's not an error. It just means that February and March completion rates were likely much worse than we know as of yet and that even the worst case scenarios here are optimistic in a sense. You can adjust the February and March data to more realistic figures using the Universal Adjustment tool for scenarios 1-7 or by creating custom data sets through scenarios 9 & 10.

Final Notes:

I really hope this tool will compel people to think deeply about the implications of continued low completion rates at the CSC. More than that, however, I hope it will arm petitioners with a set of facts to draw from when contronting the USCIS service personnel, their elected representatives, or the media. At minimum, I urge everyone to take their results, along with the findings of my data thread, to their elected representatives following the guide I have previously offered. This calculator uses the USCIS's own data and basic arithmetic that is essentially undeniable. If you don't believe me, go back and put early 2012 or 2011 dates and see how accurate it is. Do everything you can to make sure it's worst case scenarios do not come true.

[I & B 273]

Haha, no love for this version? Is it too complicated? Is it not compatible with people's excel versions? I know scenarios 8-10 and the comparison matrix can look a little overwhelming at first, so please let me know if I need to better explain them or anything else.

[I & B 273]

You see, you guys are much better at improving this thing than I am alone. I already got one great suggestion and have implemented two changes.

1. I have added an upfront estimator of the number of pending petitions at the time of the filing on a specific entered date. This was always used in the formulas, but I realize having it up front allows one to put the numbers in better context. For example, if your elected official's staff tells you not to worry about the delay, you can say, "Look, based on the USCIS's own numbers, there were about X number of I-129Fs pending when I filed. If you look at their published completion rates, this means it will take them X, Y, and Z amounts of time to be processed under the following scenarios. So, in the worst case I am waiting an extremely long time, and even in an optimistic scenario, I face a substantial wait. That's just simple, undeniable math. All I'm asking is that you do your best to make sure I can at least get the optimistic scenario."

2. I have tweaked scenario 8 to include the Universal Adjustment tool rates for February and March, 2013. I think this will allow people to grapple with the most-realistic scenarios, such as less than 150 completions per month for February and March at the CSC, followed by a slow return to the historic processing cycle.

Please let me know if there are any other changes that would be helpful! This sheet can do a lot, but I understand it is complicated and want to make sure anyone can put it to good use.

[Rob & Rachel 24]

I'll give you some love for it, You did a great job on it, and it looks a lot better from the first version. It's a special kind of talent to make spreadsheets like this, and not one I have. I'll stick with videos.

I think VJ is just kinda slow today. I was getting a lot more comments yesterday as well.

TGIF I guess!

Also, thanks for your suggestions for the video!

[I & B 273]

I'll give you some love for it, You did a great job on it, and it looks a lot better from the first version. It's a special kind of talent to make spreadsheets like this, and not one I have. I'll stick with videos.

I think VJ is just kinda slow today. I was getting a lot more comments yesterday as well.

TGIF I guess!

Also, thanks for your suggestions for the video!

Much appreciated. I was actually so angry this morning upon seeing more December approvals (nothing against the approvees!) that I ended up taking the day off so I could have a long weekend to start seriously putting together an updated data thread now that I have had the benefit of thinking about the problem more deeply and hearing everyone's feedback for a few weeks.

Mark my words, USCIS, winter is coming. I'm making it my personal quest to arm people with enough info that the USCIS cannot get away with lying about this situation to petitioners, congressional staff, or anyone else.

Edited April 12, 2013 by I & B

[I & B 273]

I've updated the calculator once again. I had discovered some minor errors while making the data tables for my CSC delay projection graphs. Those have all been fixed and the corrected calculator can be found at the original link in the OP.