Polls on gay marriage ballot initiatives generally under-estimate the opposition to gay marriage by about seven percentage points

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Polls on gay marriage ballot initiatives generally under-estimate the opposition to gay marriage by about seven percentage points, according to a 2010 study by New York University political science professor Patrick J. Egan.

“The share of voters in pre‐election surveys saying they will vote to ban same‐sex marriage is typically seven percentage points lower than the actual vote on election day,” Egan wrote. He also noted, however, that polls are generally accurate when it comes to the percentage of people supporting gay marriage.

The chart below, from Egan’s study, illustrates this point. Polls measuring opposition to gay marriage (denoted by the white dots) very often come in below the actual opposition to gay marriage on Election Day (denoted by the gray line).

The best example of the discrepancy between the polls and the actual vote may be the same gay marriage ban that comes before the Supreme Court this week — California’s Proposition 8.

While polling regularly showed more opposition to the ban (i.e. support for gay marriage) than support for it, the measure passed on Election Day 2008 by four points, 52 percent to 48 percent.

The trend has continued, even as four states in November became the first in the country to have their citizens vote for gay marriage.

In Washington state, polls consistently showed more support for gay marriage than the final seven-point margin.

In Maryland, late polling showed support for gay marriage as high as nine or 10 points (including nine in a Washington Post poll) — and even higher in some early polls — but it passed by four points.

In Maine, late polls showed gay marriage ahead by double digits, but it passed by six points.

...

There are a couple theories for this discrepancy, setting aside the notion that the pollsters themselves might be biased:

1) Polls under-sell opposition to gay marriage because people don’t want to come off as intolerant of gay people, so they hide their true anti-gay marriage beliefs from pollsters. A similar theory has been suggested for polls that over-sell support for black candidates — something dubbed the “Bradley Effect.”

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2) Opponents of gay marriage feel more strongly than supporters and thus are more apt to vote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/03/25/is-support-for-gay-marriage-over-sold/

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

It's the shame factor and the anonymity of ballot. People don't want to be politically incorrect, out of fear of ridicule, but when nobody is looking, or will find out, their true feelings take over.

Edited March 25, 2013 by The Patriot

[one...two...tree 2,762]

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

[MyLittlePony 340]

sad.

[Danno 1,228]

sad.

Yeah I agree, what kind of country is this where people are apprehensive about voicing their opinion on something, especially when so many people agree with them.

[MyLittlePony 340]

Yeah I agree, what kind of country is this where people are apprehensive about voicing their opinion on something, especially when so many people agree with them.

The world is turning in a new direction and not a good one. The world population is crumbling the human race will be gone soon cant reproduce anymore.

[Danno 1,228]

The world is turning in a new direction and not a good one. The world population is crumbling the human race will be gone soon cant reproduce anymore.

NOT SURE where your numbers are going from but fertility is kinda like rain: Some places are flooding while others are parched dry.

[MyLittlePony 340]

Guys cant do Guys in the rear to get a guy pregnant.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

I never understood this argument. How does gay marriage reduce reproduction?

It doesn't.

[MyLittlePony 340]

So how does marriage change this? It doesn't.

A gay man can have a baby now? wow new for me.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

A gay man can have a baby now? wow new for me.

Nobody said that. Try to follow along before hitting reply.

[MyLittlePony 340]

Nobody said that. Try to follow along before hitting reply.

I broke it.

[james&olya 1,121]

The world is turning in a new direction and not a good one. The world population is crumbling the human race will be gone soon cant reproduce anymore.

The only way reproductive rates pose a threat to survival of the human species comes from over-population and related issues such as climate change.

[james&olya 1,121]

The world is turning in a new direction and not a good one. The world population is crumbling the human race will be gone soon cant reproduce anymore.

So you are starting to come down with the gay yourself?