Housing market appears near trough, with signs of recovery in data: National Association of Realtors

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

The housing market is on a "road to recovery," the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors said Friday...

[...]

"There is still bad news [on home sales}, but the bad news is getting better," said David Lereah, at the real estate trade group's annual convention here.

[...]

With the latest monthly numbers showing existing home sales running at a 6.2 million to 6.3 million pace, Lereah said the market is now at a "sustainable" level of sales. He called the 7-million-unit pace and above, which is where home sales were at their peak in 2005, an "unsustainable frenzy."

[...]

...some markets, notably those which experienced the greatest run-up in home prices and the biggest influx of investor-buyers, could be 12 months to two years away from balance.

Lereah listed several "signs of recovery" in the housing market in addition to the more-sustainable level of home sales: the inventories of new and existing homes for sale is falling, home builders are cutting production, mortgage applications have stabilized, mortgage rates have fallen and remain historically attractive, housing affordability is improving and price declines appear to luring buyers back into the market, he said.

"Do not be afraid of falling prices. It's sales that are important," Lereah said. "We needed prices to fall. We had a balloon and we are deflating it. It got to the point where homes were unaffordable and we reached a breaking point. That's the reason we are in this contraction."

[...]

The national housing numbers don't adequately reflect what is going on in the country, Lereah contends, because there are at least five distinct categories into which local markets may fall today:

1. Nonboom stallers. These cities, such as Detroit and Akron, Ohio, never participated in the real estate boom of this decade and remain stagnant because of local economic issues. These cities represent about 10% of the U.S. real estate market.

2. Nonboom gainers. Areas such as Houston and Dallas also did not participate in the great run-up in prices, and today are showing respectable gains in home prices despite the national numbers. These areas account for about 23% of the market.

3. Boom lite. These cities, of which Atlanta is representative, took part in the boom to some extent and are seeing home-price gains decelerate but not turn negative. About 22% of the U.S. is covered.

4. Average boom. Cities such as New York enjoyed a solid run and have seen some modest price drops this year. But in these areas, which represent about 19% of the country, the correction is almost over.

5. Hot boom. These are the now-famous places where prices soared, investors salivated, speculators jumped in and the party, which seemed like it would never end, has come to a crashing conclusion. These places -- California, Arizona, Nevada, southern Florida and the Washington, D.C. area -- face the biggest correction and the longest recovery period.

[...]

Those hot markets only account for 26% of overall U.S. housing activity, Lereah said. But those markets tend to be the ones the media seizes on to generalize about U.S. housing overall, he said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...p;siteid=google

[evansfan 0]

The housing market is on a "road to recovery," the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors said Friday...

[...]

"There is still bad news [on home sales}, but the bad news is getting better," said David Lereah, at the real estate trade group's annual convention here.

[...]

With the latest monthly numbers showing existing home sales running at a 6.2 million to 6.3 million pace, Lereah said the market is now at a "sustainable" level of sales. He called the 7-million-unit pace and above, which is where home sales were at their peak in 2005, an "unsustainable frenzy."

[...]

...some markets, notably those which experienced the greatest run-up in home prices and the biggest influx of investor-buyers, could be 12 months to two years away from balance.

Lereah listed several "signs of recovery" in the housing market in addition to the more-sustainable level of home sales: the inventories of new and existing homes for sale is falling, home builders are cutting production, mortgage applications have stabilized, mortgage rates have fallen and remain historically attractive, housing affordability is improving and price declines appear to luring buyers back into the market, he said.

"Do not be afraid of falling prices. It's sales that are important," Lereah said. "We needed prices to fall. We had a balloon and we are deflating it. It got to the point where homes were unaffordable and we reached a breaking point. That's the reason we are in this contraction."

[...]

The national housing numbers don't adequately reflect what is going on in the country, Lereah contends, because there are at least five distinct categories into which local markets may fall today:

1. Nonboom stallers. These cities, such as Detroit and Akron, Ohio, never participated in the real estate boom of this decade and remain stagnant because of local economic issues. These cities represent about 10% of the U.S. real estate market.

2. Nonboom gainers. Areas such as Houston and Dallas also did not participate in the great run-up in prices, and today are showing respectable gains in home prices despite the national numbers. These areas account for about 23% of the market.

3. Boom lite. These cities, of which Atlanta is representative, took part in the boom to some extent and are seeing home-price gains decelerate but not turn negative. About 22% of the U.S. is covered.

4. Average boom. Cities such as New York enjoyed a solid run and have seen some modest price drops this year. But in these areas, which represent about 19% of the country, the correction is almost over.

5. Hot boom. These are the now-famous places where prices soared, investors salivated, speculators jumped in and the party, which seemed like it would never end, has come to a crashing conclusion. These places -- California, Arizona, Nevada, southern Florida and the Washington, D.C. area -- face the biggest correction and the longest recovery period.

[...]

Those hot markets only account for 26% of overall U.S. housing activity, Lereah said. But those markets tend to be the ones the media seizes on to generalize about U.S. housing overall, he said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...p;siteid=google

David Lereah is a complete fraud and a laughingstock among mainstream economists, please do not make any major investment decisions e.g. buying a house, based on this shill.

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

yeah, i do not know this guy, but he does seem to have a vested interest in having home sales continue.

Daniel

:energetic:

[Fandango 1,440]

yeah, i do not know this guy, but he does seem to have a vested interest in having home sales continue.

Daniel

:energetic:

As if they wouldn't anyway?

I can personally say that although it wasn't as easy as last year, I've had a record year...even amongst all the 'bubble has burst' talk

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

yeah, i do not know this guy, but he does seem to have a vested interest in having home sales continue.

Daniel

:energetic:

As if they wouldn't anyway?

I can personally say that although it wasn't as easy as last year, I've had a record year...even amongst all the 'bubble has burst' talk

way to go!

Daniel

:energetic:

[Fandango 1,440]

yeah, i do not know this guy, but he does seem to have a vested interest in having home sales continue.

Daniel

:energetic:

As if they wouldn't anyway?

I can personally say that although it wasn't as easy as last year, I've had a record year...even amongst all the 'bubble has burst' talk

way to go!

Daniel

:energetic:

lol, thx...but my point was not for kudos, it was to somewhat convey my own stance that regardless of markets, house sales will always continue.

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

yeah, i do not know this guy, but he does seem to have a vested interest in having home sales continue.

Daniel

:energetic:

As if they wouldn't anyway?

I can personally say that although it wasn't as easy as last year, I've had a record year...even amongst all the 'bubble has burst' talk

way to go!

Daniel

:energetic:

lol, thx...but my point was not for kudos, it was to somewhat convey my own stance that regardless of markets, house sales will always continue.

I know lisa. ;P and you are correct. my only point, and sorry that I did not elaborate, was to always take any report written by an 'insider' with a grain of salt.

i am of belief that the current market will countinue to sell; just not at the rates it was several years ago.

lol, thx...but my point was not for kudos, it was to somewhat convey my own stance that regardless of markets, house sales will always continue.

at any rate, it sounds like you did very well regardless of the market.

Daniel

:enrgetic:

[Fandango 1,440]

yeah, i do not know this guy, but he does seem to have a vested interest in having home sales continue.

Daniel

:energetic:

As if they wouldn't anyway?

I can personally say that although it wasn't as easy as last year, I've had a record year...even amongst all the 'bubble has burst' talk

way to go!

Daniel

:energetic:

lol, thx...but my point was not for kudos, it was to somewhat convey my own stance that regardless of markets, house sales will always continue.

I know lisa. ;P and you are correct. my only point, and sorry that I did not elaborate, was to always take any report written by an 'insider' with a grain of salt.

i am of belief that the current market will countinue to sell; just not at the rates it was several years ago.

lol, thx...but my point was not for kudos, it was to somewhat convey my own stance that regardless of markets, house sales will always continue.

at any rate, it sounds like you did very well regardless of the market.

Daniel

:enrgetic:

I think we need articles like this to counteract all the negative press the housing market has taken. Naturally, the prices could NOT sustain themselves, and on the one in a bazillion chance they did (go with me for the sake of argument)....it would cripple everything as homeownership would only be a reality to the VERY priveledged. But I turn on the tv & I see all the 'THE SKY IS FALLING!' pieces on the mkt & it really pizzes me off...it's not an 'end of the world' situation, its the ebb and flow of a good run...one which happens more often than ppl think.

But as far as the local news is concerned...'a good day at Disney World doesn't make headlines'...yanno? I feel these articles are here to give a fuller picture...not to say 'hey we're sendin someone round with a gun so we can force you to sell your home' but to say 'hey it's not as dire as everyone's making out'

I speak to agents all the time...there are those who are like 'omG what a horrible year! I need a new job!' and there are those like me who see it for what it is and have to work that much harder. You know the truth? I would take this mkt over last year's any day of the week! Reason why? This year in my mkt, sellers need me more...I get to use my expertise to help people.....last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

Edited November 13, 2006 by LisaD

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

yeah, i do not know this guy, but he does seem to have a vested interest in having home sales continue.

Daniel

:energetic:

As if they wouldn't anyway?

I can personally say that although it wasn't as easy as last year, I've had a record year...even amongst all the 'bubble has burst' talk

way to go!

Daniel

:energetic:

lol, thx...but my point was not for kudos, it was to somewhat convey my own stance that regardless of markets, house sales will always continue.

I know lisa. ;P and you are correct. my only point, and sorry that I did not elaborate, was to always take any report written by an 'insider' with a grain of salt.

i am of belief that the current market will countinue to sell; just not at the rates it was several years ago.

lol, thx...but my point was not for kudos, it was to somewhat convey my own stance that regardless of markets, house sales will always continue.

at any rate, it sounds like you did very well regardless of the market.

Daniel

:enrgetic:

I think we need articles like this to counteract all the negative press the housing market has taken. Naturally, the prices could NOT sustain themselves, and on the one in a bazillion chance they did (go with me for the sake of argument)....it would cripple everything as homeownership would only be a reality to the VERY priveledged. But I turn on the tv & I see all the 'THE SKY IS FALLING!' pieces on the mkt & it really pizzes me off...it's not an 'end of the world' situation, its the ebb and flow of a good run...one which happens more often than ppl think.

But as far as the local news is concerned...'a good day at Disney World doesn't make headlines'...yanno? I feel these articles are here to give a fuller picture...not to say 'hey we're sendin someone round with a gun so we can force you to sell your home' but to say 'hey it's not as dire as everyone's making out'

I speak to agents all the time...there are those who are like 'omG what a horrible year! I need a new job!' and there are those like me who see it for what it is and have to work that much harder. You know the truth? I would take this mkt over last year's any day of the week! Reason why? This year in my mkt, sellers need me more...I get to use my expertise to help people.....last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

I hear ya and believe ya! that reminds me of the house two houses away from mine that 'went on sale'. the owner is on the phone in the morning having decided to put it up for sale. so as the agent is taking down the info, her colleague ovehears the details. as soon as the 1st agent hangs the up, the 2nd agent is telling her she has a buyer. sure enough, the house sold without a sign going up!

I like your 'can do' attitude.

Daniel

:energetic:

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

This year (at least in my neck of the woods - central nj) it's been the exact opposite. I don't get the sense that market values have fallen much (5-10%) but homes are definitely not selling as fast as they used to. Heck, a lot of units that got listed this spring haven't sold (and it's Nov already) so the owners are yanking them off the market or deciding to rent them out instead. I think if every unit that was 'on sale' back in April/May had to sell by now, prices would have had to come down more.

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

This year (at least in my neck of the woods - central nj) it's been the exact opposite. I don't get the sense that market values have fallen much (5-10%) but homes are definitely not selling as fast as they used to. Heck, a lot of units that got listed this spring haven't sold (and it's Nov already) so the owners are yanking them off the market or deciding to rent them out instead. I think if every unit that was 'on sale' back in April/May had to sell by now, prices would have had to come down more.

you looking to sell gupt?

Daniel

:energetic:

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

This year (at least in my neck of the woods - central nj) it's been the exact opposite. I don't get the sense that market values have fallen much (5-10%) but homes are definitely not selling as fast as they used to. Heck, a lot of units that got listed this spring haven't sold (and it's Nov already) so the owners are yanking them off the market or deciding to rent them out instead. I think if every unit that was 'on sale' back in April/May had to sell by now, prices would have had to come down more.

you looking to sell gupt?

Daniel

:energetic:

Nope.

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

This year (at least in my neck of the woods - central nj) it's been the exact opposite. I don't get the sense that market values have fallen much (5-10%) but homes are definitely not selling as fast as they used to. Heck, a lot of units that got listed this spring haven't sold (and it's Nov already) so the owners are yanking them off the market or deciding to rent them out instead. I think if every unit that was 'on sale' back in April/May had to sell by now, prices would have had to come down more.

you looking to sell gupt?

Daniel

:energetic:

Nope.

changed your mind about leaving joisey?

Daniel

:energetic:

[Fandango 1,440]

last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

This year (at least in my neck of the woods - central nj) it's been the exact opposite. I don't get the sense that market values have fallen much (5-10%) but homes are definitely not selling as fast as they used to. Heck, a lot of units that got listed this spring haven't sold (and it's Nov already) so the owners are yanking them off the market or deciding to rent them out instead. I think if every unit that was 'on sale' back in April/May had to sell by now, prices would have had to come down more.

That has to do with sellers have unrealistic expectations of the market. Speculators who don't think that the mkt has changed, but got in too late to ride the bandwagon.

I've seen listings sit for essentially one reason: price. You price it right, it will sell. Granted there are other factors involved as well, but that's the biggun

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

last year, anyone could practically post a sign in the yard and the house was pending before sundown

This year (at least in my neck of the woods - central nj) it's been the exact opposite. I don't get the sense that market values have fallen much (5-10%) but homes are definitely not selling as fast as they used to. Heck, a lot of units that got listed this spring haven't sold (and it's Nov already) so the owners are yanking them off the market or deciding to rent them out instead. I think if every unit that was 'on sale' back in April/May had to sell by now, prices would have had to come down more.

you looking to sell gupt?

Daniel

:energetic:

Nope.

changed your mind about leaving joisey?

Daniel

:energetic:

For now. Long story.